Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: By far this is my concern. Thinking 3-4am start time? 36F Gotta lay down snow prior to 8 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It wouldn't be right if I didn't voice my concerns. No doubt per the mesos there will be insane f gen lifting and banding of precip in far SE PA and across the river into parts of NJ. However, as is evident on the mesos, BL temps are an issue going into this. Some areas are going to start as sleet or even plain rain (and likely struggle for a bit to flip). Now, most guidance suggests under the heavier banding that temps mix down to the BL and flip to snow quickly. My concern is what happens alongside the heavier banding? We usually see subsidence and lighter rates. That is a concern. Whatever spots fall under subsidence and don't get into the heavier banding are going to struggle to accumulate. I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated spots only seeing a slushy inch or so where 10 miles away they have 5"+ of paste. Going to be interesting to watch unfold, but I think those concerns are legit going in. Someone is going to get screwed while up the road the get a golden shovel. Keep your expectations low for this one and hope for the best lift to occur over your house. Totally agree on all points. I think a narrow 20-25 mile wide area will get 4-6"+ of mashed potatoes under the intense banding but it won't be widespread at all. 1-3" on the grass(snow) would be my guess for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 No posts on the Nam ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: No posts on the Nam ? Looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 There’s our lift centered on the higher elevations of Chester and Delaware Counties in the purple areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Thunder snow with this one?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 thinking LV should be raised to WSW minimum though but based on current road conditions from past snow event, Mt Holly should really consider it based on the noon model run now. I still have 2 feet and more on the ground and plows will have difficulty even maneuvering in the heavier snow bands with limited visibility. The Nam 12k shows over 6 in now- thats pretty reliable at this range. The NW tick is surprising many . I think Tuesdays storm will do the same too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 37 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: There’s our lift centered on the higher elevations of Chester and Delaware Counties in the purple areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Classic placement 95 NW that’s where I thought it would be yesterday and last night with the best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM QPF is overdone...but better thermals to the N and W will even out from PHL to NW of fall line in my view. That said I am still concerned that where the heaviest precip or banding is could lose a bit more at the start....again why a more blended approach like the NWS P&C has makes a lot of sense to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rgem and icon East FYI. Worried the NAM had the fgen too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like more guidance showing light rain to start from I-95 east. Also, current temperatures just about at today’s forecast highs already in southern NJ and it is only 10:30 AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I think a solid 2-4 or even 3-5 is a fair forecast for Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 This map says to me that nws isn't confident at all for tomorrow. I know it's the low end amount but usually when we are under winter storm warnings this map shows like the bare minimum to qualify for those warnings, like 4". This says to me, there's a pretty large chance at a bust due to the BL issues and they aren't really confident in their winter storm warnings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3” is my goal in northeast Philly. Well see. Just to see some heavy snow for an hour would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 57 minutes ago, MGorse said: Looks like more guidance showing light rain to start from I-95 east. Also, current temperatures just about at today’s forecast highs already in southern NJ and it is only 10:30 AM. Trenton is above it's forecast high as well at 1130. Almost 45 there. 41 up here in Hopewell. Seems like any time the sun is blasting anymore and there isn't a north wind, we just warm up super fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 3” is my goal in northeast Philly. Well see. Just to see some heavy snow for an hour would be cool. That is my goal for this storm too. 3" with a hour or 2 of fat heavy flakes. Definitely a hard storm to nail down since it is all going to come down to banding with how borderline thermals are. Better to aim low and be pleasantly surprised than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This kind of reminds me of a storm back in March 18. Most areas got a sloppy 1-2 inches while a very small area got like 10 inches. I remember it very well because I was in Newtown Square and we had about 10 inches while down the road people only had 1-2 inches. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This map says to me that nws isn't confident at all for tomorrow. Well, that plus the NWS itself putting their confidence level at only Moderate, in their briefing about the storm: https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 MillevillWx is bullish for Sunday 4-7" with loli's of 9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This map says to me that nws isn't confident at all for tomorrow. I know it's the low end amount but usually when we are under winter storm warnings this map shows like the bare minimum to qualify for those warnings, like 4". This says to me, there's a pretty large chance at a bust due to the BL issues and they aren't really confident in their winter storm warnings. I mean, as I said last night in reply to Ralph's post asking if anyone thought there was room to bust...I'll repeat, there is. That said, for a modest event like this, really the absolute lowest snow amount that qualifies for a WSW (5"): https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx (Note-- above map is for a *12* hour event)...your low end estimate is going to be low somewhat often. It's unlikely the region on the whole sees <1". It is quite possible we end up with more spots getting advisory level snow totals though than warning. This will be a dynamics battle: cooling from the strong fgen, versus marginal bl temps and an eh airmass. Round 1, ding ding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This looks like a WWA event with 2-4 inches near the coast and less inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I mean, as I said last night in reply to Ralph's post asking if anyone thought there was room to bust...I'll repeat, there is. That said, for a modest event like this, really the absolute lowest snow amount that qualifies for a WSW (5"): https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx (Note-- above map is for a *12* hour event)...your low end estimate is going to be low somewhat often. It's unlikely the region on the whole sees <1". It is quite possible we end up with more spots getting advisory level snow totals though than warning. This will be a dynamics battle: cooling from the strong fgen, versus marginal bl temps and an eh airmass. Round 1, ding ding. It triggers me that nw chester isn't in light blue. It's like they should continue the border from berks count to the east west median in Chester. We are used to getting snow in French creek, elverson, pheonixville, Bucktown, malvern, pottstown, Coventryville, Nantahala, chestersprings....we can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: This map says to me that nws isn't confident at all for tomorrow. I know it's the low end amount but usually when we are under winter storm warnings this map shows like the bare minimum to qualify for those warnings, like 4". This says to me, there's a pretty large chance at a bust due to the BL issues and they aren't really confident in their winter storm warnings. Just keep in mind that is probabilities based and is auto generated based on many models with using our deterministic forecast as the mode. But yeah lots could go wrong with this system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: It triggers me that nw chester isn't in light blue. It's like they should continue the border from berks count to the east west median in Chester. We are used to getting snow in French creek, elverson, pheonixville, Bucktown, malvern, pottstown, Coventryville, Nantahala, chestersprings....we can handle it. That was basically to match up with Lancaster County in NWS State Colleges area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 36 minutes ago, MGorse said: Just keep in mind that is probabilities based and is auto generated based on many models with using our deterministic forecast as the mode. But yeah lots could go wrong with this system. Thanks Mike, I did not know that it was auto generated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z ECM took back the little extra 0z gave us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 40 minutes ago, MGorse said: That was basically to match up with Lancaster County in NWS State Colleges area. That makes me feel better actually! Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like a 3" storm with loli's of 4-5" just don't throw toasters at me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looks like a 3" storm with loli's of 4-5" just don't throw toasters at me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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