The Iceman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Call it weenie intuition on a Friday afternoon but I think 95 is going to get Nam'd at happy hour. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Watch 5 plus..it’s on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM is a monster hit for most. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Call it weenie intuition on a Friday afternoon but I think 95 is going to get Nam'd at happy hour. Boom! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Newman said: NAM is a monster hit for most. Sorta what I was thinking. Tomorrow it may be a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If that verifies it will give me more than the 6" we got here during a 4 day storm! LOL Can't make this stuff up. Everyone needs a pasting, lots and lots of melting today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Animal said: Sorta what I was thinking. Tomorrow it may be a foot.. Enjoy the anti bust thread worthy storm.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Animal said: Sorta what I was thinking. Tomorrow it may be a foot.. 3k NAM says 16" in Philly (at 10:1 ratio) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Enjoy the anti bust thread worthy storm.. Nah.. I feel good about this storm. the last storm was a bust on my street. Can’t help it if people get their panties in a bunch over a bust thread. My area got screwed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Dafuq is going on here? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dafuq is going on here? There is intense frontogenesis (FGEN) forecast by the NAM which is resulting in a period of robust precipitation rates. This setup looks to favor a robust FGEN band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This one isn't done trending. I think this ends up tucked an mostly rain. Most storms this year have under modeled the ser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nam-Nest seems off with that sfc low location... basically outside the envelope of the entire EPS, probably some weirdness going on at the edge of its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, MGorse said: There is intense frontogenesis (FGEN) forecast by the NAM which is resulting in a period of robust precipitation rates. This setup looks to favor a robust FGEN band. Thanks Gorse My post was tongue in cheek as I have been mentioning this for a couple days. I was more caught off guard by how robust/vigorous the 3k is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: This one isn't done trending. I think this ends up tucked an mostly rain. Most storms this year have under modeled the ser I95 will be the dividing line maybe a couple miles N and W of there. Classic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Rgem has rain all way up to nyc. Very close. Still think this comes close an is mostly slop for coastal maybe even inland. Not much cold air. Depending on dynamics an we know how that works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thanks Gorse My post was tongue in cheek as I have been mentioning this for a couple days. I was more caught off guard by how robust/vigorous the 3k is depicting. Copy that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Icon is juicy. King has spoken all hail the king 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Rgem has rain all way up to nyc. Very close. Still think this comes close an is mostly slop for coastal maybe even inland. Not much cold air. Depending on dynamics an we know how that works Agreed with coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If this verifies it’s the storm that extreme de pa and snj deserve after the screw job we got with the last storm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If this verifies it’s the storm that extreme de pa and snj deserve after the screw job we got with the last storm. .*SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, bpjones595 said: If this verifies it’s the storm that extreme de pa and snj deserve after the screw job we got with the last storm. . South Jersey is mostly rain lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Means "jack" but 6abc (accu-weather) upped their totals from 3-5" to 3 - 6" at 4pm from earlier..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I seem to remember a storm maybe back in 2008, '09 or '10 that seemed to have a real similar look to this storm Im going to 3-8" for the collar counties of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Means "jack" but 6abc (accu-weather) upped their totals from 3-5" to 3 - 6" at 4pm from earlier..... It means something to family member, you betcha it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dafuq is going on here? The pink color should be changed to brown, that is mashed potatoes and gravy rates peeps are going to like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Another 10 inches on my 2+ foot snow pack was called for in the Euro over a week ago as seen below as accumulated snow on the ground by Sunday. Wow is all I can say. Euro has been great sniffing out these issues at ten days but drops the ball at five days 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Insane omega values in that FGEN band on the 18z NAM (pull a forecast sounding in the 3+"/hr rate zone....). Also happens to maximize right in the optimal snow growth zone temperature-wise. That would be quite epic. It is notable that models are still oscillating a bit closer to the coast. Monitor that trend--too close and we have the classic "oops just the poconos" setup. W.r.t. precip types, Ralph is right I think w/95 being a dividing line. As such, I think the 6abc map, and many of the snowfall maps on the models, are a bit generous S of the city. Great dynamics only help if you've got sufficient cold air. Good positioning of the 850 mb low though. FWIW, latest 4km RPM has the dividing line smack dab across Philly and 95--almost to the mile. It does suggest that the corridor will be the locus of the fgen band for at least some period, and that some of that will be in the form of heavy snow. Towards the end of the event, heavy precip rates and less WAA as the low moves NE will likely push the snow line SE. On basis of this being a somewhat classical setup, I'm expecting 4-6 in the city and the 95 corridor, isolated areas of 8" where banding aligns with the best thermal profiles. On basis of the RPM, I think this will be a prototypical "nail biter" for city folks like me, as small deviations right now could really change this forecast and move the axis out to the N&W burbs, or even to C. NJ though I view that as less likely. That's probably the reason for the broad brush 3-6" abc call. Regardless, this doesn't look to be a 10:1 ratio snow..it'll be heavy and wet. If you look at the ratio estimates for this on the models, it's more 1:6,1:7...so even if you buy a more "snowy" solution from these models, you won't see those 10:1 ratio estimates verify. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MGorse said: Copy that. Don't know if this has been said today, but Happy Weatherman's Day Mike! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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