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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes. 

Just off the top of my head I thought of February 1987, November 1987, March 2014, March 2015 and March 2018.   That is 5 examples.  And if I can think of 5 just from memory I am SURE there are more.  But 5 is A WHOLE LOT of something that has...."NEVER HAPPENED SINCE 1975" was I think exactly what you said.  Yes...never...except the 5 times I thought of just off the top of my head.  For something, 4" storms at DCA, that frankly don't happen themselves all that often.  I would argue its not nearly as rare as what you lead to believe in your post. 

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Just now, mattie g said:

You’re a horrible person if you’re not following the exact formula for measuring your snow.

I am definitely horrible. I probably  jipped myself out of an inch of snow by only clearing once and taking a total of 2 measurements. I hope I can be forgiven by those that take this way too seriously. I was too busy being in the moment and enjoying it.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My neighbors on both sides sold their houses within the last few years so might have missed your chance.  I’m trying not to take it personally. 

I went to School with a few Friends who lived on your hill.  Used to hang out there a lot.  Fun area to ride bikes all day and explore the woods.   It's a great place to raise kids!

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yes lol. I understand a few may have verified WSWs but damn. Most of the area wasn’t even close to verifying that. NWS did a piss poor job with this storm bottom line 

Mount Holly did pretty well as usual. They were wrong on their counties along I-95 with the WSW, but here and further north they went with advisories, which mostly worked out. Over in DE they may have been off with the advisory, as some places probably hit min warning criteria.

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1 hour ago, real said:

Not sure most will care because many probably doubted the forecast in the first place, but this a pretty big  bust for. LWX. Forecast was for 4 to 6 in DC, and many parts of the city  saw zero accumulation.

 

The bulk of southeast washington which lies across the river says hold my beer.  :whistle:

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14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

NWS did pretty well here imo.

Nailed our area IMO. Their forecast discussions also made clear that typical climo needs to be paid attention to. They caught a tough break in the area between 95 and 70/270, but that was a real time fail due to precip onset being delayed. It’s a tough call to make. Issue an advisory and it snows 6” in a few hours, that’s a much bigger problem than over estimation 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

...Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997.  BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees...

Oh I remember that one!  It was in the 60s the day before and I was out and about doing errands with short sleeves.  I heard WSW on the radio and laughed thinking no way.  Damn if it didn't snow 7 inches in Germantown the next afternoon with the most beautiful, photogenic snow.  It was the only event of that winter (and 1998 was a shutout). 

With this train wreck of a winter, I will treat all threats going forward with total doubt like that one.  I don't care if we have a gulf baby with a perfectly placed high to the north.  I am going to doubt all the way until it happens. 

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41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly did pretty well as usual. They were wrong on their counties along I-95 with the WSW, but here and further north they went with advisories, which mostly worked out. Over in DE they may have been off with the advisory, as some places probably hit min warning criteria.

Mount Holly is much better than Sterling when it comes to those who live 12-15 miles across the Bay from Rock Hall up to the Elk River. 

Their discussions are better as well, imho

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