WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That wasn't the day before. The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace. That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm! 87 Veterans Day is what I was responding to and not Feb. DCA hit 48 Feb 87 that day and most Obs were in mid 40’s for highs, Yesterday 50-52. Veterans Day was low 60’s day before, then cold front and around 40 at dawn VD but cold air kept pressing in and became snow around noon . DCA and me got the same, 11”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. So SOME of this is bad luck. That January storm in 2019 for instance had nothing to do with UHI or AGW. But I also think SOME portion of this is indicative of a larger scale issue for you. You're location has the unfortunate issue of BOTH and expanding and worsening UHI effect AND being near the Bay. It's a pretty big double whammy. You have no elevation to offset either. You are always going to be a local minimum. But add in the fact that both the UHI and AGW are getting worse...and do I need to continue. A lot of your snow, looking at historical records, was very marginal to begin with. What would a 6" snowstorm in the 1960s or 1980s that fell with temperatures right near 32-33 degrees be now with both the UHI getting worse independent of AGW and then AGW compounding that? Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997. BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees. That was at BWI which probably runs a couple degrees colder then you. Would that have even been a snowstorm if we repeated that exact same setup. The QPF was marginal to overcome a warm boundary layer. I think it was like a uniform .4-.6 across the area. Kinda like today! Was this a replay of that storm in todays climate? I do think you will break out of this sooner or later. Yes bad luck has some to do with this and even with those factors you should have had more snow the last few years then you did...but some of these issues probably aren't going away and you will always be a snowfall minimum in our region because of your geographic location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The closest spotter report for Sykesville i see is for 3" at 9:30 but it pounded for a few hours after. Safe to say 3.5"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did Yep. Sure did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Actually surprised to see NNJ into the LoHud with very similar totals to us down here in carroll county. Looks like places NW of the big I-95 corridor cities that got in on that good banding and had a little help with lift ended up with around 6-7” region wide. It’s a shame snow didn’t arrive around midnight, this would easily have been 3-6+ for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did Marginally, yes but this was a solid WWA event IMHO. The brine mixers will be busy this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So SOME of this is bad luck. That January storm in 2019 for instance had nothing to do with UHI or AGW. But I also think SOME portion of this is indicative of a larger scale issue for you. You're location has the unfortunate issue of BOTH and expanding and worsening UHI effect AND being near the Bay. It's a pretty big double whammy. You have no elevation to offset either. You are always going to be a local minimum. But add in the fact that both the UHI and AGW are getting worse...and do I need to continue. A lot of your snow, looking at historical records, was very marginal to begin with. What would a 6" snowstorm in the 1960s or 1980s that fell with temperatures right near 32-33 degrees be now with both the UHI getting worse independent of AGW and then AGW compounding that? Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997. BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees. That was at BWI which probably runs a couple degrees colder then you. Would that have even been a snowstorm if we repeated that exact same setup. The QPF was marginal to overcome a warm boundary layer. I think it was like a uniform .4-.6 across the area. Kinda like today! Was this a replay of that storm in todays climate? I do think you will break out of this sooner or later. Yes bad luck has some to do with this and even with those factors you should have had more snow the last few years then you did...but some of these issues probably aren't going away and you will always be a snowfall minimum in our region because of your geographic location. Agree with all. Global warming won’t make it easier. I’ll have a more productive post once I get sober. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The closest spotter report for Sykesville i see is for 3" at 9:30 but it pounded for a few hours after. Safe to say 3.5"? You’re a horrible person if you’re not following the exact formula for measuring your snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Tacking on .1" today. Snow transitioned to rain 10-11 a.m. producing a brief but picturesque blanket of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did If they did they've probably already melted back below it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes. Just off the top of my head I thought of February 1987, November 1987, March 2014, March 2015 and March 2018. That is 5 examples. And if I can think of 5 just from memory I am SURE there are more. But 5 is A WHOLE LOT of something that has...."NEVER HAPPENED SINCE 1975" was I think exactly what you said. Yes...never...except the 5 times I thought of just off the top of my head. For something, 4" storms at DCA, that frankly don't happen themselves all that often. I would argue its not nearly as rare as what you lead to believe in your post. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: If they did they've probably already melted back below it. Yes lol. I understand a few may have verified WSWs but damn. Most of the area wasn’t even close to verifying that. NWS did a piss poor job with this storm bottom line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Yes lol. I understand a few may have verified WSWs but damn. Most of the area wasn’t even close to verifying that. NWS did a piss poor job with this storm bottom line Shhhhhhhhhhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: You’re a horrible person if you’re not following the exact formula for measuring your snow. I am definitely horrible. I probably jipped myself out of an inch of snow by only clearing once and taking a total of 2 measurements. I hope I can be forgiven by those that take this way too seriously. I was too busy being in the moment and enjoying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: My neighbors on both sides sold their houses within the last few years so might have missed your chance. I’m trying not to take it personally. I went to School with a few Friends who lived on your hill. Used to hang out there a lot. Fun area to ride bikes all day and explore the woods. It's a great place to raise kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: Shhhhhhhhhhhh No. People can cherry pick what they want with what happened but this sucked for a lot of us. Congrats to who got it. Another beer will suffice for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 34 here and cloudy. A bit melty but looks like most of it will survive. With the cold coming in tonight and tomorrow probably not much more melting until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 It was cool to see some great rates/big flakes for a few but damn that went too fast and now left with slop. Now I know how wife feels 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yes lol. I understand a few may have verified WSWs but damn. Most of the area wasn’t even close to verifying that. NWS did a piss poor job with this storm bottom line Mount Holly did pretty well as usual. They were wrong on their counties along I-95 with the WSW, but here and further north they went with advisories, which mostly worked out. Over in DE they may have been off with the advisory, as some places probably hit min warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, real said: Not sure most will care because many probably doubted the forecast in the first place, but this a pretty big bust for. LWX. Forecast was for 4 to 6 in DC, and many parts of the city saw zero accumulation. The bulk of southeast washington which lies across the river says hold my beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, Amped said: If they did they've probably already melted back below it. Facts. 7” down to 4.5” within mere hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Facts. 7” down to 4.5” within mere hours. Take another blue pill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Take another blue pill. Take another salty pill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS did pretty well here imo. Where’d you end up? 5”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Take another salty pill He's not salty, trust me. You just lobbed him a HR ball lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS did pretty well here imo. Nailed our area IMO. Their forecast discussions also made clear that typical climo needs to be paid attention to. They caught a tough break in the area between 95 and 70/270, but that was a real time fail due to precip onset being delayed. It’s a tough call to make. Issue an advisory and it snows 6” in a few hours, that’s a much bigger problem than over estimation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: He's not salty, trust me. You just lobbed him a HR ball lol Ok lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, mattie g said: You’re a horrible person if you’re not following the exact formula for measuring your snow. Good point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: Facts. 7” down to 4.5” within mere hours. Yep sounds exactly like the April 2018 storm in CT. Measured 7" on my parents deck at 10AM was down to about 1" by sunset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS did pretty well here imo. Yepp. They nailed start and stop times of day and knew about how important the meso-scale banding would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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