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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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2 hours ago, RDM said:

Yup - can relate to the same thing.  Used to live in W. Spfd near Old Keene Mill and Rolling and saw the effects you are talking about there.  Now we're at 385' asl just NW of Vienna.  Even though Tyson's is near 500' they often get reduced by the heat island effect.  A little further to the east and Falls Church often gets 2-3" when we get 4-5".  Just little to the west and a little higher and away from the concrete helps a lot, especially when on the margins.  

 

I’m a mile or two north of that intersection, so I definitely know it!

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

This is the area the mesos have been keying on, and where I think the best chances are for a few inches. I am hoping I can hang onto this for a while, but the better lift is probably going to focus more to my east.

Winter storm warning downgraded to an advisory here. How much do you have so far ?  

 

 

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My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

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Just now, frd said:

Winter storm warning downgraded to an advisory here. How much do you have so far ?  

 

 

I measured and cleared at 3" an hour or so ago. Should have done it earlier. Under this band now that has really blossomed as it approached. Snowing heavily again with huge flakes.. Might end up around 4. Temp back down to 32.

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41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hoping to keep the light/moderate snow going for a while and then clouds most of the day here. Models have been showing temps maxing out around 36 here before dropping.

“Storm” is over but it’s doing that upslope snizzle thing I often get for a whole after a storm passes. That’s ok because every hour it does this preserves a little precious snowpack from the evil February sun 

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Veterans Day 87 was 63 the day before, wasn’t it?

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55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice!

That band has moved off but still some moderate snow falling. Measured right at 3" about 20 mins ago. 

Back to Heavy snow. Steady at 33 now almost 5 inches in Dover. Definitely been a steady snow here since 10am. Bands set up nicely over central DE today. A wonderful few hours to enjoy!

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4 minutes ago, Tito said:

Back to Heavy snow. Steady at 33 now almost 5 inches in Dover. Definitely been a steady snow here since 10am. Bands set up nicely over central DE today. A wonderful few hours to enjoy!

Most guidance had your area doing well with the fgen. Congrats. Hoping this last band pushes me close to 4".

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46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

After today, I’m at nearly 11” for the season. That’s not bad for early February! But it hasn’t come easy and could certainly imagine being near 18” with some not crazy luck. But such is life. 

Oh, 100!%. Solid start to the season overall, even if it’s been a bumpy ride. Been lots of wintry days to enjoy, including 4 in the past week alone. We’re at about 30” on the season up this way. I know my climo is a bit more favorable due to latitude and elevation, but it just goes to show you how one or two things going in your direction could easily have you at 20+“ for the season  

No worries my friend, you guys are definitely due.  I’m feeling real good about the next 2-3 weeks, especially after the -NAO reloads as we are entering MJO Phase 8. Should be prime for all to get in on the goods 

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As quickly as it turned on, the snow machine has turned off. After 6 hours of light to moderate snow, I measured a compacted inch. We got hours of some of the biggest flakes I have seen since 2016. A very pretty morning. 9/10 by Florida girl standards. One point docked for compacting and melting immediately. 32/32 La Plata, MD

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Most guidance had your area doing well with the fgen. Congrats. Hoping this last band pushes me close to 4".

Thanks! Will admit I was a bit impatient this morning but looks we both had at least some snow and on Super Bowl Sunday, I will take it. Still Heavy snow in Dover. 

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45 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Feb 87... was one

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