February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

[jayyy]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

After today, I’m at nearly 11” for the season. That’s not bad for early February! But it hasn’t come easy and could certainly imagine being near 18” with some not crazy luck. But such is life. 

Oh, 100!%. Solid start to the season overall, even if it’s been a bumpy ride. Been lots of wintry days to enjoy, including 4 in the past week alone. We’re at about 30” on the season up this way. I know my climo is a bit more favorable due to latitude and elevation, but it just goes to show you how one or two things going in your direction could easily have you at 20+“ for the season  

No worries my friend, you guys are definitely due.  I’m feeling real good about the next 2-3 weeks, especially after the -NAO reloads as we are entering MJO Phase 8. Should be prime for all to get in on the goods 

[diatae]

As quickly as it turned on, the snow machine has turned off. After 6 hours of light to moderate snow, I measured a compacted inch. We got hours of some of the biggest flakes I have seen since 2016. A very pretty morning. 9/10 by Florida girl standards. One point docked for compacting and melting immediately. 32/32 La Plata, MD

[Tito]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Most guidance had your area doing well with the fgen. Congrats. Hoping this last band pushes me close to 4".

Thanks! Will admit I was a bit impatient this morning but looks we both had at least some snow and on Super Bowl Sunday, I will take it. Still Heavy snow in Dover. 

[arlwx]

As a warminista, I was pleasantly surprised by the big bust (0.1") a couple of miles west of DCA.  All I had to do was swipe the remaining slop off car windows. Easy on my back.

[Cobalt]

Yellow orb has reared its ugly head. Snow still holding on, so that high QPF content is flexing its strength right now. Also on a less important note the sun-induced glare appeared at the worst possible time to mess up my Tetris game, but that's besides the point lol

[Stormfly]

It's over and wow it's melting fast.  May not need to plow which would be nice.
There WAS a good 4" in the rails, now 2" would be generous.

35/35.

Sun angle definitely playing now as we gain over 2 minutes a day of daylight.

I need to move north of the 60th parallel!

[chris21]

45 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Feb 87... was one

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

[CAPE]

Light snow here now and 33. Looks about done for accumulations.

Very enjoyable event. It was difficult to get additional accumulation after noon. Still managed 3.8" total.

Too bad it wasn't a few degrees colder. Would have easily been a 6"+ storm here.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

[WEATHER53]

52 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Veterans Day 87 was 63 the day before, wasn’t it?

Not talking about the day before but rather day of.  87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

that is the needle we thread here along 95.  at least we got some flakes!

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

Not sure about up here but I got 12 inches with that one. At the time  I lived 1 mile north of beltway exit 20 on the Pikesville/Owings Mills line. Started snowing just after dark and was done before sunrise. I think it was a Sunday.

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Feb 87... was one

That’s a good spot and the only one that I too could remember . There are a few exceptions to the 48 day of rule and all qualified that a cold front did push thru after the 48+ and before onset. That did not happen yesterday and the airmass could not support significant snow around DC proper. Silver Spring Alexandria and Rockville arent Clarksburg . Again good spot on 1987 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

Yes up here got like 16-20" in like 8 hours...would have loved that storm.  BTW @WEATHER53 might want to check out March 4 2015 also.  Unless my memory is wrong it was in the 50's and the next morning DCA got like 4.8" of snow.   It was also in the 50's before the storm in 2018 started and I think DCA got over 4" barely in that one too.  November 10th 1987 was 59 degrees as that storm started.  I am sure there are more but those are 4 examples just off the top of my head...and considering how few 4" snowstorms there are at DCA that makes it NOT that rare a thing for something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED apparently.  CRAZY!!!

[Baltimorewx]

Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Not talking about the day before but rather day of.  87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

[Baltimorewx]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

It’s called too warm of precedent air mass which is what I repeatedly referenced with much rebuke of “models say plenty cold aloft”

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Not sure about up here but I got 12 inches with that one. At the time  I lived 1 mile north of beltway exit 20 on the Pikesville/Owings Mills line. Started snowing just after dark and was done before sunrise. I think it was a Sunday.

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here.  Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more.  I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago.  Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff.   I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This ones not happening for eastern HoCo and Baltimore city. Just stuck between meso bands to our east and west. Frustrating. If it was colder we probably still would have added up 3” or so. But going to end with 0.5” unless this last hour or two drastically changes.

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

so normal then 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

that is the needle we thread here along 95.  at least we got some flakes!

unfortunately it feels like the eye of that needle is getting smaller and smaller due to you know what 

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

DCA topped BWI. I figured the 95 corridor was in a good spot for this one. But the dynamically forced band ended up over southern MD and the eastern shore and the colder temps plus mesoscale banding helped the N/W crowd. So 95 got stuck in the dead zone. Not cold enough to accumulate lighter precip and not sufficient dynamics to generate good rates to overcome ~34F temps. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

Yeah, somewhat. It’s been a stressful climb to about 11” seasonal total lol. Hopefully Wednesday to Friday works out. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here.  Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more.  I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago.  Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff.   I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.  

Wow, impressive storm here. Basically 2 inches an hour from start to finish. Today could've been a mini version of it if we were a touch cooler or the snow fell at night.

[Tito]

Winding down west of Dover. Light snow temp up to 34. Looks like a lot of compacting, will go out but last measurement was about 5 inches probably a tad over.