stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Eh, considering where we started from just 24 hours, I'm quite pleased with the NAM 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Interesting that we are starting to see interaction between the N/S & S/S with this. The ceiling is/was relatively modest considering the fast moving nature of the storm, but to bump my last post and to allude to what PSU said, this could raise the ceiling if we see another run with amplification of the s/s wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still have a feeling it'll bump a little NW before game time. Hopefully not enough to screw @CAPE over. Seriously. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: yea despite the late start and weaker SW its still trying to climb the coast. But just looking at the whole way the jet and the NS is oriented gives me the vibe this would really amp up and go nuts up the coast if that SS SW ends up slightly more amplified. There is a LOT of room for this to amplify up the coast looking at the flow. The thing that could save us from too north of a trend is that it starts out pretty far SE before it begins to gain latitude. I know it trended SE but this run didn't give me a "its getting suppressed" vibe. If anything it furthered my opinion this is likely to amp up more as we get closer. There's not really any confluence or block in the UL to make me believe it would suppress off the coast with any sort of amplification. It's easy to see where some of the more extreme ensemble members are coming from when you look at the ingredients upstairs and if everything came together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Eh, considering where we started from just 24 hours, I'm quite pleased with the NAM That would be a beautiful Sunday morning for the District. Grab a cup of coffee or favorite morning beverage, a bagel sandwich, and walk around the mall during the height. Gonna be the picturesque kind of snow too that clings to everything 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3km is slightly NW of the parent NAM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea despite the late start and weaker SW its still trying to climb the coast. But just looking at the whole way the jet and the NS is oriented gives me the vibe this would really amp up and go nuts up the coast if that SS SW ends up slightly more amplified. There is a LOT of room for this to amplify up the coast looking at the flow. The thing that could save us from too north of a trend is that it starts out pretty far SE before it begins to gain latitude. I know it trended SE but this run didn't give me a "its getting suppressed" vibe. If anything it furthered my opinion this is likely to amp up more as we get closer. Agreed. The trend to the SE was really a small blip but there was positive takeaways that leave this for room to be a bigger boom compared to even the earlier runs. I'm curious to see how the 3km run finishes out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: 3km is slightly NW of the parent NAM Last panel for lols. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Agreed. The trend to the SE was really a small blip but there was positive takeaways that leave this for room to be a bigger boom compared to even the earlier runs. I'm curious to see how the 3km run finishes out. Looks like its 25-50 miles NW of its sibling run as it end at 60 IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Last panel for lols. Don’t hate that 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll really be looking for some of the things the NAM did on that run upstairs on the rest of the 00z suite. The reality is though verbatim the run was a bit S for the 95 folks in the corridor, it was awfully close to being an even bigger run than what 18z showed. It is one of those setups where you can blow up a quick phase that drops double digit amounts and big time rates in places. Basically ninja'd by @MillvilleWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea despite the late start and weaker SW its still trying to climb the coast. But just looking at the whole way the jet and the NS is oriented gives me the vibe this would really amp up and go nuts up the coast if that SS SW ends up slightly more amplified. There is a LOT of room for this to amplify up the coast looking at the flow. The thing that could save us from too north of a trend is that it starts out pretty far SE before it begins to gain latitude. I know it trended SE but this run didn't give me a "its getting suppressed" vibe. If anything it furthered my opinion this is likely to amp up more as we get closer. That’s exactly what I was saying this afternoon. If that sw amps just a little there’s nothing to stop it from coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Don’t hate that Prob had another 2-4 hours of snow to go looking at radar at 60 for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3k is pretty sweet at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s exactly what I was saying this afternoon. If that sw amps just a little there’s nothing to stop it from coming north. Then we can really cash in over here being the favored spots aside, I like where we are atm. Curious to see if the ICON continues the rock solid consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding. 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding. Uh yeah that would explain the 2.5"/hr rates modeled at h60. There's going to be some great fgen/dynamics in this wave. Amp it up a bit more and folks will really be surprised by what's shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That would be a beautiful Sunday morning for the District. Grab a cup of coffee or favorite morning beverage, a bagel sandwich, and walk around the mall during the height. Gonna be the picturesque kind of snow too that clings to everything Man, you just described heaven. I'm just a snow nut...yeah, KU would be great, but I'm not a big game hunter. Just give me the above scenario and I'll take it every time. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Geez The 7H frontogen is just stupid and it's likely to be the case with a storm like this. I said it before in my winded post earlier, but 1-2"/hr rates are 100% possible if this vort remains as prolific as it shows. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Man, you just described heaven. I'm just a snow nut...yeah, KU would be great, but I'm not a big game hunter. Just give me the above scenario and I'll take it every time. Same man. Same! Give me the snow and I'll go enjoy every damn flake that falls. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey @stormtracker Here's the sounding for DC at the end of the Nam Nest run. This is pretty damn gaudy if you ask me. Paste bomb with massive aggregates likely in that sounding. THAT's what I want to see. I love snow bombs falling. It just looks more badass. The kind where you hear those mofos hitting the ground and trees. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Air flow converges into the base of a trough, then diverges, or accelerates out of it (just east of the vorticity max at h5) and you can also see this by looking aloft at the jet streak. Indeed, I see it. Thank you for that graphic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Watching a 30 for 30 on Al Davis. It has inspired my final comment for the night. Just come north baby! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I do have one question. Obviously this is dependent upon the strength of the ss sw. How likely is that to come in Stros than modeled. What are the tendencies in a situation like this? What would lead to that strengthening? How likely is more interaction with the ns over the center of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Trough takes on a negative tilt about 3 hrs before the NAM parent. The Nest basically looked like a beefed up GFS at 5H. I'd be damn happy with that run for anyone in here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I would like my 15.5” back! What is the difference between the 12k and the 3k, other than the 12k always seems to have more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 These systems don't phase, but if the NS gets ahead , it will crush the SS before it gets up the coast. So you should probably hope the SS doesn't slow down here, and the NS doesn't speed up. Either will lead to a weaker further south system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Agreed. The trend to the SE was really a small blip but there was positive takeaways that leave this for room to be a bigger boom compared to even the earlier runs. I'm curious to see how the 3km run finishes out. Look at the SLP track on the 3k...even starting out as far southeast it comes NNE up the coast...from off SC to just east of the VA capes. It's good that this doesn't start to amplify until its over the southeast because we would be in trouble otherwise...but I really think this is coming up not escaping east. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: These systems don't phase, but if the NS gets ahead , it will crush the SS before it gets up the coast. So you should probably hope the SS doesn't slow down here, and the NS doesn't speed up. Either will lead to a weaker further south system. 100% and was looking at that myself. Trying to convince myself that the ns isn’t just a tad out in front this run but I’m having a hard time doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now