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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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2 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Imagine if we had these rates for 72 hours.
Oh since we're on the imaginary train let's make the temp six above. ;)

This is very heavy snow, it's already weighing the spruce limbs down considerably.

Yeah, looking at all the snow on @Baltimorewx’s mailbox, I can see it starting to teeter.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I need it to keep doing what it is doing out there now for a few hours. 32 and pouring massive dendrites.

Best looking snow I have seen in years.

Good for you. Apparently some of those mesos were right with the “dry slot” and subsidence thru Baltimore but good stuff to the west and east

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My house is at 1,035 feet which helps A LOT!  Other then about 20 mins in one band Monday this was much better and more fun. 

I know but there was a moment on Friday when all guidance had a sub 1000mb low amplifying as it passed the VA capes and that was a scenario where we could beat climo and get a 4-8 maybe 10” more widespread thump snow. You add slightly better banding, lift, and more NE surface wind and suddenly 34 degree moderate slush is 32 degree rippin fatties. I guess with the history of these kinds of waves usually amping up more when there isn’t any suppression I bought in. Once guidance started to back away this result was more inevitable. 

I couldn't get past the speed part. I saw the mega frontogen posts earlier this week and  was hesitant to jump in due to speed. 2"hr for 2 straight hours without a lull is hard with a storm on the move like this. I didnt discount the chance though. Absolutely considered the possibility of a heavy raking. And it sure could have happened but I couldnt shake the natural pessimism for a huge outcome given no closed or neg tilt shortwave and no confluence. The really (good) nasty bands generally dont park without some sort of impediment to forward speed. Kinda need an upper level wall (even if tiny) to really wring things out more often than not

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I need it to keep doing what it is doing out there now for a few hours. 32 and pouring massive dendrites.

Best looking snow I have seen in years.

The heaver bands are flexing and waning , seems you are under one of the larger ones. Here  the early AM band has moved on, hopefully watching to my SW for another. 

There were 4 heavier bands at first , now it seems we are going towards 2 bands, one near psu land and the the lower Eastern Shore moving towards Dover.  

The one nearing Baltimore has weakened. 

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it's disappointing, but I'm trying not to let it get me down TOO much...but it's a bit difficult. Was hoping we'd get an inch or two (never did trust the WSW). But that's okay...perhaps we have more chances coming up (hopefully). Coping skills necessary for days like today, lol

 

Screenshot_20210207-101829.png

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

The heaver bands are flexing and waning , seems you are under one of the larger ones. Here  the early AM band has moved on, hopefully watching to my SW for another. 

There were 4 heavier bands at first , now it seems we are going towards 2 bands, one near psu land and the the lower Eastern Shore moving towards Dover.  

The one nearing Baltimore has weakened. 

This is the area the mesos have been keying on, and where I think the best chances are for a few inches. I am hoping I can hang onto this for a while, but the better lift is probably going to focus more to my east.

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18 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I don't want to post it, but the snowfall maps from the two NAM runs on tropicaltidbits are actually quite similar.  There's something way off about Weatherbell snow maps. They're the worst.

Definitely another example here today where following climo is generally best. The WB Kuchera snow totals are always way higher than Kurchera on Pivotal, etc. 
 

2.8” here - snowing moderately 

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managed to stay snow since the flip around 7am.  still have some rates moving through with this next band, but only so much it can accumulate with fringe temps.  it is what it is.  this is about what i expected tbh, though i did think bmore and areas further east would do better than they are.

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

DUMPING fatties in Westminster. 

Great storm so far for us man.  Actually doing better than I thought we would. I was contemplating spending the night at my brothers in HoCo because of QPF concerns. Glad somebody reminded me that climo almost always takes the house in razor thin events. 

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