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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Good morning...Well Winter, Baltimore's 5 year-long winter storm warning drought doesn't end today either (this is barely an advisory, lol). But hopefully with the window(s) of opportunity coming up, we will. 5" minimum bar set for each event the rest of the winter...we oughta be due! :lol:

It’s not even advisory worthy here 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

It’s not even advisory worthy here 

Yeah it's disappointing, but I'm trying not to let it get me down TOO much...but it's a bit difficult. Was hoping we'd get an inch or two (never did trust the WSW). But that's okay...perhaps we have more chances coming up (hopefully). Coping skills necessary for days like today, lol

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:
Snow picking up again here. Looks like a nice band forming again over Leesburg and Western Loudoun

My 3-6 for wintry mix looks like it will verify. I was tempted to post last night and cut back but I saw radar....knew Loudoun usually wins in marginal setups and said...nah lol

I have 2.5” so far and snow still coming down nicely

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27 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow,  had no idea it was that high out there in psu land.

Snowing pretty good here in Middletown,  much better rates than the last storm.  Very pretty out there. 

My house is at 1,035 feet which helps A LOT!  Other then about 20 mins in one band Monday this was much better and more fun. 

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seems to be verifying as the most likely outcome for the setup leading in. Inline with my thoughts. A sprinting storm with much of the area at or above freezing rarely if ever produces anything "big" in these parts. I think I've joined @Ian with putting climo in front of models with all events and adjusting accordingly. Makes me feel smart but climo has been around many thousands of years longer than me. I aint that smart. My memory is good enough tho

I know but there was a moment on Friday when all guidance had a sub 1000mb low amplifying as it passed the VA capes and that was a scenario where we could beat climo and get a 4-8 maybe 10” more widespread thump snow. You add slightly better banding, lift, and more NE surface wind and suddenly 34 degree moderate slush is 32 degree rippin fatties. I guess with the history of these kinds of waves usually amping up more when there isn’t any suppression I bought in. Once guidance started to back away this result was more inevitable. 

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