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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Kinda rare for us not to get band'd at the same time. Not piling up hot and heavy but def approaching 2" here. Might be more. Still slackin and chillin in bed. Might all melt before I decide to take on the day and start moving

Yeah, MoCo half of the deathband went out on a solo tour today. Such is life in the mid Atlantic. You win some you lose some more.

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19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm still trying to learn the Sykesville area for storms...I pretty much know leesburg like the back of Ji's neck but here not so much...like I'm stunned Columbia and Ellicott city aren't getting what I'm getting now...literally 15 minutes away 

That’s a good area for in the burbs. Kind of the southern tip of Parr’s Ridge. It only gets better as you drive north an 32.

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Something is off here. It’s probably bad luck, but if there’s a way to fail or come up short, we find it, every time.

It’s been snowing great here all morning but my temps have sucked. Interesting seeing the streets caving in photos well south but nothing but wet here. No complaints though.

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Just now, mattie g said:

Yup. I’m west of the fall line at 325’ or so, which definitely has made a difference in these kinds of events in the past. I’ve mentioned this in discussions on here with H20, with 12/5/09 being one event that really sticks out as one that produced here but not so much in your neck of the woods.

Yup - can relate to the same thing.  Used to live in W. Spfd near Old Keene Mill and Rolling and saw the effects you are talking about there.  Now we're at 385' asl just NW of Vienna.  Even though Tyson's is near 500' they often get reduced by the heat island effect.  A little further to the east and Falls Church often gets 2-3" when we get 4-5".  Just little to the west and a little higher and away from the concrete helps a lot, especially when on the margins.  

 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

That’s a good area for in the burbs. Kind of the southern tip of Parr’s Ridge. It only gets better as you drive north an 32.

It’s been snowing great here all morning but my temps have sucked. Interesting seeing the streets caving in photos well south but nothing but wet here. No complaints though.

Glad to hear it for you - it’s a combo of rain TV and every so often snow TV. Will be a T. 

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Just now, RDM said:

Yup - can relate to the same thing.  Used to live in W. Spfd near Old Keene Mill and Rolling and saw the effects you are talking about there.  Now we're at 385' asl just NW of Vienna.  Even though Tyson's is near 500' they often get reduced by the heat island effect.  A little further to the east and Falls Church often gets 2-3" when we get 4-5".  Just little to the west and a little higher and away from the concrete helps a lot, especially when on the margins.  

 

Hello old neighbor!  I used to live in that exact area until I moved to Fairfax a few months ago... snowing pretty well here right now

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am very pleased with my yard but kinda disappointed for everyone else. Was pulling for a more amplified coastal so we had a region wide celebration. This seems pretty elevation dependent. 

Seems to be verifying as the most likely outcome for the setup leading in. Inline with my thoughts. A sprinting storm with much of the area at or above freezing rarely if ever produces anything "big" in these parts. I think I've joined @Ian with putting climo in front of models with all events and adjusting accordingly. Makes me feel smart but climo has been around many thousands of years longer than me. I aint that smart. My memory is good enough tho

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10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I’m west of the fall line at 325’ or so, which definitely has made a difference in these kinds of events in the past. I’ve mentioned this in discussions on here with H20, with 12/5/09 being one event that really sticks out as one that produced here but not so much in your neck of the woods.

I lived in Baltimore in the early 2000s, and I remember a few small events back then when Baltimore would end up with 1 to 3 or even 3 to 5 inches, while very little fell in DC.  Now, our fate seems more closely connected than had been the case. Maybe just coincidence since it seems like we get fewer smallish snow events in general now. But I do wonder if something else is at work.

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