WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Idk this looks better to me ? Can you post the 15z at the same time. I don’t have access to maps like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I personally am not a fan of SREF's outside an envelope of potential max and min and that's about it. A lot of times, it guides the 5th and 95th percentiles, so you have a clue as to what is the most extreme result. Hi-res is so prone to minute shifts in guidance that SREF's can exacerbate and/or waver from run to run, so they really are only prudent inside 48 hrs, at least imo. HREF is the newest ensemble blend of hi-res guidance and it does a better job overall and can pick out trends, but it realllllllly struggles with ULL's and intense baroclinicity. It did pick out the potential for the banding in Binghamton with the mega bomb up there, so it's not all for naught. I think there will be more investment in hi-res ensembles down the pike, but we have a major step in Fv3 integration the next 3-4 years, so it's probably more of a side project. Someone who works directly with NWP will have more info on that. 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: WAY more amplified this run. BTW we know the SREF has crazy biases but it is somewhat useful with trends just as a curiosity in between model runs. It does tend to trend with the other guidance in general. @high risk @MillvilleWx do you happen to know if anyone still even looks at the SREF? And also...the idea of a short range meso scale ensemble is a great idea imo. The meso models are needed to pick out features the globals cannot but they are very susceptible to being jumpy which is probably unavoidable when you make them sensitive enough to pick up on meso features. An ensemble to help eliminate that issue is a great idea...but it seemed the SREF just suffered from having members with crazy biases that skewed them. Why wasnt there, or is there, an effort to develop a more useful short range ensemble system? Thanks for any info. The SREF was a good idea, as it mixed and matched two different model cores, initial conditions from three different systems, and different physics. It's really, really tough to get meaningful spread in the short range, so the approach was smart, but the problem is that things were never successfully tuned. You have 26 members, but you often get two camps, with clusters for each of the two cores. The ARW members tend to be very amplified, and the NMMB members tend to be flat. The middle ends up being ok-ish, but you could get the same answer with just one member from each of the two cores. But I agree that it shows the general range of possibilities. The SREF will be turned off once it is established that the GEFS can cover the short range, as AWC and WPC still use the SREF. HREF simply blends the NAM nest and the three Hi-Res Windows. Version 3 (coming this spring) includes the HRRR too, and the Hi-Res Window NMMB member gets replaced with an FV3 member. It's only as good as the models that comprise it, and there are shortcomings as Millville noted, but it scores quite well. It will serve as the baseline for the new Rapid Refresh Forecast System (hi-res, 10 member, hourly FV3 ensemble) which is probably ~3 years away. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Vs Thank you. I can see it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Top is 21z that just came out the bottom is 15z from this afternoon. Precip lighter on 21z as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Funny how different people see different things when looking at data. Guess perspective is reality. I was looking at the MSLP and it was a significant trend more amplified and slightly closer to the coast with the track. The precip was also more expansive to the west. But there was a reduction in the max precip stripe to the SE of 95...and there was a significant decrease is snow to the SE of 95. Not sure why the decrease is precip given the more amplified mean on the MSLP. Probably divergent camps. If one camp trended more west it could explain why the reduction east of 95...there may be a camp that drops more significant precip to their west and dryslots that area. There may have been a few members skewing the qpf way high there that are not this run. Hard to say but those kinds of details are unreliable on the SREF. The track was a little west and the mean slp was deeper and the precip extended further west. Those were the main takeaways I got from it. And that was probably too much to take from the SREF lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 here's exhibit A for what I was mentioning about the two camps of SREF members. For the upcoming event, the ARW member are amplified, and the QPF is rocking' For the NMMB, there are a couple of exceptions, but they're mostly light, suppressed events: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Updated Version should be out in time to track the March blizzard then . Thanks for the info btw I should have said "late spring", as April or May seems far more likely. WAY too much SREF talk in here this evening........ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NAM through 36 is a beatdown waiting to happen. Much stronger NS vort. No idea where it goes from here. But love the look at 36, 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hmmm... little more northern and southern stream interaction on 00z NAM at 36 compared to 18z at 42 on h5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I thought at 42 the shortwave looked less intense than 18z... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I thought at 42 the shortwave looked less intense than 18z... I thought the same. Moisture trajectory and nw extent seemed limited IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM through 36 is a beatdown waiting to happen. Much stronger NS vort. No idea where it goes from here. But love the look at 36, yea but the SS vort looks weaker and that is the one that does most of the work for us so I dunno. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ss looks less impressive than 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I thought at 42 the shortwave looked less intense than 18z... That's my take too. Definitely a weaker shortwave, which dampens the ridging out ahead. I don't think this will be as good as the 18z NAM, although I don't *think* it will be awful either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Precip certainly blossoming in SW VA at 48. Looks like it’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM has more a look comparable to 12z. 18z was more amped. This was not as intense, but very similar to 12z. Will still get the job done, but a bit SE of 18z imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Congrats Richmond at 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This run stops the northern trend, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM has more a look comparable to 12z. 18z was more amped. This was not as intense, but very similar to 12z. Will still get the job done, but a bit SE of 18z imo interestingly...the issue was a weaker southern vort this run...but there were some improvements in other ways...the northern stream is actually oriented more favorably imo and could even really amp this up had there not been such a weaker SW this run. In the end the weaker SW offset the improvements in other places...but if that SW were to trend more amplified again this could really go nuts given the trend for the NS to dig and go negative sooner and further west. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still have no room to complain down this way but can obv see why DC crew would be disappointed. Precip shield is more consolidated at 51 and 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: interestingly...the issue was a weaker southern vort this run...but there were some improvements in other ways...the northern stream is actually oriented more favorably imo and could even really amp this up had there not been such a weaker SW this run. In the end the weaker SW offset the improvements in other places...but if that SW were to trend more amplified again this could really go nuts given the trend for the NS to dig and go negative sooner and further west. It's funny you say that because I was literally just looking at the 25H panels and the jet placement is actually little better than previous runs. The strength is a touch lower than 18z, but further back, so wouldn't be surprised if this still gets the job done for areas east of US15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like S MD jackpots this run looking at IWM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Pretty wet still in that stripe. Over 1” qpf in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Agreed with what PSU said, there were some improvements upstairs. If the S/W decides she wants to amplify more, this could move a bit slower and really blow up off the coast for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Depending what expectations were this run seems to hold serve... widespread 3-6" with a jackpot of 10" somewhere in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Really nice run for the southern part of our area. Looks like a good hit for DC. I don’t mind the south shift to give us in DC some breathing room for eventual shifts north. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll say this @CAPE ain't gonna be complaining at all about this run. Woof 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It's funny you say that because I was literally just looking at the 25H panels and the jet placement is actually little better than previous runs. The strength is a touch lower than 18z, but further back, so wouldn't be surprised if this still gets the job done for areas east of US15. yea despite the late start and weaker SW its still trying to climb the coast. But just looking at the whole way the jet and the NS is oriented gives me the vibe this would really amp up and go nuts up the coast if that SS SW ends up slightly more amplified. There is a LOT of room for this to amplify up the coast looking at the flow. The thing that could save us from too north of a trend is that it starts out pretty far SE before it begins to gain latitude. I know it trended SE but this run didn't give me a "its getting suppressed" vibe. If anything it furthered my opinion this is likely to amp up more as we get closer. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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