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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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5 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Still a snow and rain mix here in Crofton, 35°F.

Evoking lots of memories of Snowquester here (March 6, 2012). Without the cold antecedent airmass, those that will do well (better) are our friends over higher elevations and/or under FGEN, perhaps convective banding. Otherwise, meh. 

Yeah this is the key for the coastal plain a bit later. Always has been, but with a weaker system than previously forecast, and somewhat more easterly track, it remains to be seen where and to what extent this occurs.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I can verify this statement lol.

Sorry. We needed the more amped up solution to cool the boundary layer. It’s not just the precip. Yea we have good moisture transport out of the gulf streaming north ahead of the NS trough but the more amped coastal would have added a northerly surface wind component and helped a little. Might still. The low seems to be a little slower getting it’s act together. Maybe we get a late save as it passes the outer banks if it can amplify enough. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Sorry. We needed the more amped up solution to cool the boundary layer. It’s not just the precip. Yea we have good moisture transport out of the gulf streaming north ahead of the NS trough but the more amped coastal would have added a northerly surface wind component and helped a little. Might still. The low seems to be a little slower getting it’s act together. Maybe we get a late save as it passes the outer banks if it can amplify enough. 

Yup. I just have a feeling once the low gets going, the best forcing/bands will develop more to my east over DE and SNJ. Models have trended that way.

Hopefully I can get in on some of it.

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