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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. 

You're passing your interpretation off as an objective observation. I think it's subjective. To me the precipitation shield is not definitively more expansive than modeled. In truth it's really hard to say for sure without a denser network of rain gauges. 

I'm hoping for an expansive precip. shield and as much snow as possible. But I also don't want to build false expectations.

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9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You're passing your interpretation off as an objective observation. I think it's subjective. To me the precipitation shield is not definitively more expansive than modeled. In truth it's really hard to say for sure without a denser network of rain gauges. 

I'm hoping for an expansive precip. shield and as much snow as possible. But I also don't want to build false expectations.

I wasn’t comparing radar to ground qpf. I was comparing modeled radar to actual radar.  It was more expensive at 3z. That’s not subjective. Then you said that you prefer to use upper level ROAB and ground qpf reports then when I explained why that’s not really feasible in real time here you moved the goal posts.  You can argue radar comps don’t matter. They aren’t the best but with a newly blossoming area of precip it’s the best you can do until you get ground reports but by then we will pretty much know in this case.  But there was a more expansive precip field in the TN valley at 3z then any simulated one on the guidance I checked. Not sure why you want to die on this hill.

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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Crazy. It’s 6 degrees colder in east HoCo (south of 70) and 8+ degrees colder up north (Carroll, north Baltimore, Frederick counties) . What a difference. 

Yes sir. NW Baltimore (Mt Washington) is reporting 33; I'm SE (Canton) at 41. Downtown is 42. 

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3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Better look out around Feb 16 in the Mid Atlantic! That super frigid airmass will end interacting with a storm and will probably hurl back immense, immense amounts of snow!

This is going to be a FUN February for the entire Washington Metropolitan Region!

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

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Just now, Ruin said:

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

It's gonna make it this time.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. 

Correct

Big bust way back I think 80’s was precip was rushing up toward us through so VA and long line of thunderstorms formed west to east across GA and north FL and shut it down the end. I think it was NWS Corey I was talking with as this just fell apart. Down the road seen it half dozen more so not frequent, if they fire up south to north then dampening effect not as great 

 

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21 minutes ago, Ruin said:

the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. 

When last year was that?  All I remember was a raging +AO all winter 

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