eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo. I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 36/23 here in Derwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You want to e plain your thoughts or you just gonna go with this crap See bobs reply for more info. Sorry. Long, long day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. I’d be more than okay with the higher end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Most certainly cold enough to start as snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: See bobs reply for more info. Sorry. Long, long day today. No problem. I think it’s not an easy answer. Was curious and saw this article. I know I’ve heard them talk about this on the weather channel. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/winter-storms-mid-latitude-cyclones-and-moisture-robbing-thunderstorms.8750/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Lol GFS is basically a non event Lol using the gfs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol GFS is basically a non event Lol using the gfs now Using an Ensemble model when it’s gonna snow within hours is silly - especially during a banding dependent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS is like “that’s my story and I’m sticking to it” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/21 in Crofton. Outside of the dewpoints (which are lower), this antecedent airmass feels very March-like, especially with high around 50F Sunday. I was getting PTSD vibes right before "Snowquester", or the March 6, 2013 event, but then realized that our dewpoints (and thus wet bulbs) are lower. Of course, that was a much bigger system, Miller B, with the transfer and lack of FGEN over the DC-Balt corridor really hampering our rates and (thus) accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Radar hallucinations > GFS now. Actually—a good point to keep in mind for our coming glacial days moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. It def can rob the precip shield. I dont think what is going on down south will have that effect tho. You know where I first learned that?.... Bob Ryan! lol No golden snow shovel when there is a tor outbreak in the deep south.... Exception 3/1993 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/25.5 at 11 PM SW of Burke Lake Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Going through the 00z CAMs, the two NMMB runs (NAM nest and HiResW NMMB) are the only two "wet" runs. The HRRR and HiResW ARW and ARW2 are so much drier. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cmc slightly better then 12z it appears not that it really matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, eduggs said: I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33/22 4 miles east of ReisterstownSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, high risk said: Going through the 00z CAMs, the two NMMB runs (NAM nest and HiResW NMMB) are the only two "wet" runs. The HRRR and HiResW ARW and ARW2 are so much drier. I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 HRRR is finally improving and I mean slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 still mid 40s downtown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. Its developing for sure. I am REALLY pulling for you all in the Mid Atlantic to get smashed up by heavy snow from this. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again It's weird - I thought it might be an initialization issue, but the HiResW ARW2 (NSSL-WRF) is also initialized from the NAM, and it has one third of the NAM nest precip for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: HRRR is finally improving and I mean slowly Some > none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hope this helps your thoughts up there, moderate/heavy sleet in Pinehurst, NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33/26 at 11:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 37/25 cloudy Herndon Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Very good temp/dewpoint spreads. Precip down south/southwest is developing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Jebman said: Very good temp/dewpoint spreads. Precip down south/southwest is developing. Gonna Jeb tomorrow in your honor sir. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I hope this thing overperforms so much! I want you guys to get snowed in so bad, its not even funny! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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