MetalCapsFan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 New: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0061.html Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CST Sat Feb 06 2021 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Vicinity Concerning...Heavy snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Most guidance was pretty wet in central TN tonight. What makes you think it's outperforming? Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 @losetoa6 nice convection popping near that SLP. I’m liking what I’m seeing. Radar, to me, looks juicy. Plenty more to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: @losetoa6 nice convection popping near that SLP. I’m liking what I’m seeing. Radar, to me, looks juicy. You and I have the same radar app. I think it’s pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Lol GFS is basically a non event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: No. You want to e plain your thoughts or you just gonna go with this crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 One thing that can step in and save our area with southern stream shortwaves at really short leads is development down south. At short leads, northern stream are often some level of dry or inhibited in these parts in reality compared to guidance. Southern stream are often some level of juicier and stormier in these parts in comparison. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo. I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 36/23 here in Derwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You want to e plain your thoughts or you just gonna go with this crap See bobs reply for more info. Sorry. Long, long day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. I’d be more than okay with the higher end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Most certainly cold enough to start as snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: See bobs reply for more info. Sorry. Long, long day today. No problem. I think it’s not an easy answer. Was curious and saw this article. I know I’ve heard them talk about this on the weather channel. https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/winter-storms-mid-latitude-cyclones-and-moisture-robbing-thunderstorms.8750/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Lol GFS is basically a non event Lol using the gfs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lol GFS is basically a non event Lol using the gfs now Using an Ensemble model when it’s gonna snow within hours is silly - especially during a banding dependent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS is like “that’s my story and I’m sticking to it” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/21 in Crofton. Outside of the dewpoints (which are lower), this antecedent airmass feels very March-like, especially with high around 50F Sunday. I was getting PTSD vibes right before "Snowquester", or the March 6, 2013 event, but then realized that our dewpoints (and thus wet bulbs) are lower. Of course, that was a much bigger system, Miller B, with the transfer and lack of FGEN over the DC-Balt corridor really hampering our rates and (thus) accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Radar hallucinations > GFS now. Actually—a good point to keep in mind for our coming glacial days moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve always felt that heavy convection to the south can rob some of the precip to the north. It def can rob the precip shield. I dont think what is going on down south will have that effect tho. You know where I first learned that?.... Bob Ryan! lol No golden snow shovel when there is a tor outbreak in the deep south.... Exception 3/1993 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/25.5 at 11 PM SW of Burke Lake Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Going through the 00z CAMs, the two NMMB runs (NAM nest and HiResW NMMB) are the only two "wet" runs. The HRRR and HiResW ARW and ARW2 are so much drier. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Cmc slightly better then 12z it appears not that it really matters much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, eduggs said: I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far. Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33/22 4 miles east of ReisterstownSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, high risk said: Going through the 00z CAMs, the two NMMB runs (NAM nest and HiResW NMMB) are the only two "wet" runs. The HRRR and HiResW ARW and ARW2 are so much drier. I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 HRRR is finally improving and I mean slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 still mid 40s downtown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 31/22..28/29 below 1000' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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