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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Final call map below 

Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating. 

1222513445_MASnowForecast2-6-21.thumb.png.d8f711e06dd3178e3cdb167c64f095af.png

This might actually work

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The SS SW is in Arkansas moving into TN now. That precip breaking out in TN is associated with lift ahead of it.  That’s what will become the area of precip that will affect us tomorrow so seeing it outperform guidance is good. 

Most guidance was pretty wet in central TN tonight. What makes you think it's outperforming?

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

My experience is often guidance "sees " the potential days out and will lose it only to return to that same idea near game time...but this is really cutting it close lol. I'm optimistic though unlike others here.

I’m definitely optimistic. Seen this song and dance before in this neck of the woods. I’m getting ready for 2-4” of the good stuff and will be delighted if we see more. I have no doubt someone will see 6” . Potentials there no doubt. Think people are putting way too much stock into snow maps tbh. 

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most guidance was pretty wet in central TN tonight. What makes you think it's outperforming?

Compare the 3k NAM radar at 3z and 4z to what’s happening now. The precip is more expansive and the trajectory is more north then the 3k has it. Doesn’t necessarily extrapolate but it’s not a bad sign Imo. 

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One thing that can step in and save our area with southern stream shortwaves at really short leads is development down south. At short leads, northern stream are often some level of dry or inhibited in these parts in reality compared to guidance. Southern stream are often some level of juicier and stormier in these parts in comparison.  

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