psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: The last ICON was solid right? Cant get it on tidbits. No last Icon bailed and was pretty crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: 40/25 36/24. Let’s see how this goes. You might do pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 agree...the NAMs faked us 12z then the rest of the run sucked. So far the other early 0z guidance isn’t as inspired. The HRRR and ARW were kinda meh. I’ll feel a lot better if the RGEN and ICON show a similar juiced up soliton in the next 30 mins. Otherwise the NAMS might just be doing NAM things again. If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: agree...the NAMs faked us 12z then the rest of the run sucked. So far the other early 0z guidance isn’t as inspired. The HRRR and ARW were kinda meh. I’ll feel a lot better if the RGEN and ICON show a similar juiced up soliton in the next 30 mins. Otherwise the NAMS might just be doing NAM things again. If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? Read my mind. If it says it getting 6” 12 hours from now and I get 2, that’s a poor performance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: DCA 43 My house 42 IAD 41 43 in SE DC down from 46 forty minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rgem obviously came west some but hard to tell much from just the crappy precip type panels which is all that’s updated. doesn’t look bad from those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Radar in central TN, which is the energy that becomes our banding, is more pronounced then the guidance has it at 3z. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 34/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: agree...the NAMs faked us 12z then the rest of the run sucked. So far the other early 0z guidance isn’t as inspired. The HRRR and ARW were kinda meh. I’ll feel a lot better if the RGEN and ICON show a similar juiced up soliton in the next 30 mins. Otherwise the NAMS might just be doing NAM things again. If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? Ask Weather53 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Read my mind. If it says it getting 6” 12 hours from now and I get 2, that’s a poor performance. To be fair, if it ends up being right then it scores a huge coup over pretty much every model. More than for being closer, but also for ‘finding’ the idea as time went on. There’s something to look at if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ask Weather53 It's all about the baro...the baro...the baro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Radar in central TN, which is the energy that becomes our banding, is more pronounced then the guidance has it at 3z. Exactly. Have to look at the radar now too. Also that must’ve been an earlier ICON run. I remember there wS a banger earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 icon way better 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON = Iconic start to the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 DCA back up to 45. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 34/26 in Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yea the ICON is much improved from its last run with the NW periphery and the rates in the meat of the storm. Hr's 12-15 aren't bad for most. Low is also about 50 miles west of 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 34/25 Snow looks like a go here. How much—who knows? I do know that it is likely that one run of one model over the last 5 days will have nailed this. I just don’t know which model or which run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Wish y’all luck on this one! Even if things fail the discussion has been so much better than last year. Cheers to many more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Down to 36. Doubt it starts as rain here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 @psuhoffman the RGEM is better for us because of some reinforcements at the end of the storm. Precip axis is west of 18z, but overall similar with QPF up until the storm is on its way out. We get a little luck as the storm swings out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'm still recovering from the shock of a last minute bump northwest on guidance. That ish never happens here. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Well Early this afternoon I called for 43/25 at 9pm and it was 43/28 and now 45/24 so my temperature concerns at the surface are not alleviated. Still looks like 34/35 when steady snow is falling. Can make out with heavy rates thru about 9am then too much radiance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: ICON = Iconic start to the 00z suite. And here’s my 1 cent worth: ICON ot believe anything that damn effin model kicks out. Garbaaaaage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seawolf14 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 40/26 here on Kent Island . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Upper level energy catching the surface out ahead ? The SS SW is in Arkansas moving into TN now. That precip breaking out in TN is associated with lift ahead of it. That’s what will become the area of precip that will affect us tomorrow so seeing it outperform guidance is good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Well Early this afternoon I called for 43/25 at 9pm and it was 43/28 and now 45/24 so my temperature concerns at the surface are not alleviated. Still looks like 34/35 when steady snow is falling. Can make out with heavy rates thru about 9am then too much radiance Current temps really aren’t the biggest issue. Rates are. if the column can cool dynamically it won’t matter. Also wet bulbs will bring it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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