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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I thought for 100% sure with closer slp track and subtle changes at h5 precip Euro would have been better n+w . I'm in chips fall mode now . Hrrr and radar nowcast.  I'm thinking 2-3" here most likely off .20" qpf . 4" if a decent band gets up here . Its gonna snow :weenie:

Don’t look at the latest HRRR then 

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@Bob Chill I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z.  One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now.  We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 

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