poolz1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 36/21 2" is my bar with this one....something to cover the south facing hillsides again would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 32/23 KOKV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: How far up can the temperature be above freezing before it starts to melt? I’ve seen some snow at really warm temperatures before, really surprising. Maybe it depends on a bunch of things? It depends on a lot of things. General speaking, if boundary and 925s are above freezing, if it's not straight ripping it's raining. Surface at 40 is generally rain even if the rest is good. Doesnt take much time to melt a falling snowflake. It gets tricky higher up like 800mbs on up. Sneaky warm layers in the mid levels wreak havoc even if everything else is sub. Freezing. Very generally speaking, you don't want above freezing temps higher than say 4-500' off the ground when surface is also above freezing. How much above freezing matters too. Snow can survive 33-35 degree air on the way down from 925mb level. Since our areas are marginal more often than not, you have to consider each marginal storm in its entirety. Nobody is getting 6"+ without meso banding. Even if .6 qpf falls as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 40/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Current 850’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: euro I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Current 925’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw That would be a tectonic disaster. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z euro Compared to 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 36/21 2" is my bar with this one....something to cover the south facing hillsides again would be nice. I guess the north Trend ain't happening lol. I think 2" for our neck of the woods is achievable and a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z euro Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... I just wish the significant precip could expand nw and still leave everyone in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... Could also just happen in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I just wish the significant precip could expand nw and still leave everyone in snow That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I guess the north Trend ain't happening lol. I think 2" for our neck of the woods is achievable and a good call. LOL yeah. Note to self. Next time say it’s coming north ... and staying north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected. True but the models started showing that 24 hours in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights. Its slightly SE. Not much though. Most notable difference is qpf is juiced up down in the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Here’s a higher resolution view of QPF distribution. As CAPE said, slight SE shift but not huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 DCA went up 2 degress this hour to 47. Go figure. 41 here in Wheaton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? Just multiply the precip numbers by 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? We apologize for the delay of your order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? Probably because no one can be bothered posting it. I know I cba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Is the euro at least all frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, T. August said: Is the euro at least all frozen? It froze the precip about 50 miles se of me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Here’s a higher resolution view of QPF distribution. As CAPE said, slight SE shift but not huge. BWI right on the line again, we missed being too south and east last time and only got 3 inches, now it might be the opposite lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, ovechkin said: DCA went up 2 degress this hour to 47. Go figure. 41 here in Wheaton. What’s on fire? 43/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 36 and 22. Light virga entering the area soon. NW of Staunton at 1550’ Wife and I are going to dinner, but will be reporting until I pass out tonight from the southwest for you all. Good luck, all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Anybody have 18z Euro snow map ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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