Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 LOTS of reports in the south of precip quickly flipping over to shreds of paper, even with marginal temps. Upstairs is def cold! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve seen Jan 2011 thrown around with this storm and I can’t see why. IIRC we got hammered by the closed h5 low as it came through. We don’t have that unless I haven’t been paying attention The axis of heavy precip and evolution are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: LOTS of reports in the south of precip quickly flipping over to shreds of paper, even with marginal temps. Upstairs is def cold! Exactly. And it starts right off the deck. Even 925s are fine. The warm air is literally a tiny slice of an otheriwse a good column. Soundings matter. Not all "warmish" events are the same. If the warmth was thick I would have quite different thoughts right now. I've experienced enough marginal storms where the entire first half of precip is rain even with good 850s. Those ingredients arent present with this one 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsnowdog Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/25 in Sterling,VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. And it starts right off the deck. Even 925s are fine. The warm air is literally a tiny slice of an otheriwse a good column. Soundings matter. Not all "warmish" events are the same. If the warmth was thick I would have quite different thoughts right now. I've experienced enough marginal storms where the entire first half of precip is rain even with good 850s. Those ingredients arent present with this one How far up can the temperature be above freezing before it starts to melt? I’ve seen some snow at really warm temperatures before, really surprising. Maybe it depends on a bunch of things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41/24 in Takoma park. Better than I was expecting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 36/21 2" is my bar with this one....something to cover the south facing hillsides again would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 32/23 KOKV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: How far up can the temperature be above freezing before it starts to melt? I’ve seen some snow at really warm temperatures before, really surprising. Maybe it depends on a bunch of things? It depends on a lot of things. General speaking, if boundary and 925s are above freezing, if it's not straight ripping it's raining. Surface at 40 is generally rain even if the rest is good. Doesnt take much time to melt a falling snowflake. It gets tricky higher up like 800mbs on up. Sneaky warm layers in the mid levels wreak havoc even if everything else is sub. Freezing. Very generally speaking, you don't want above freezing temps higher than say 4-500' off the ground when surface is also above freezing. How much above freezing matters too. Snow can survive 33-35 degree air on the way down from 925mb level. Since our areas are marginal more often than not, you have to consider each marginal storm in its entirety. Nobody is getting 6"+ without meso banding. Even if .6 qpf falls as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 40/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z euro 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Current 850’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: euro I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Current 925’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw That would be a tectonic disaster. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z euro Compared to 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 36/21 2" is my bar with this one....something to cover the south facing hillsides again would be nice. I guess the north Trend ain't happening lol. I think 2" for our neck of the woods is achievable and a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 18z euro Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... I just wish the significant precip could expand nw and still leave everyone in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast... Could also just happen in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I just wish the significant precip could expand nw and still leave everyone in snow That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I guess the north Trend ain't happening lol. I think 2" for our neck of the woods is achievable and a good call. LOL yeah. Note to self. Next time say it’s coming north ... and staying north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected. True but the models started showing that 24 hours in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights. Its slightly SE. Not much though. Most notable difference is qpf is juiced up down in the tidewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Here’s a higher resolution view of QPF distribution. As CAPE said, slight SE shift but not huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 DCA went up 2 degress this hour to 47. Go figure. 41 here in Wheaton. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why is snowfall distribution from euro not being posted? Just multiply the precip numbers by 20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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