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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, Rhino16 said:

How far up can the temperature be above freezing before it starts to melt? I’ve seen some snow at really warm temperatures before, really surprising. Maybe it depends on a bunch of things?

It depends on a lot of things. General speaking, if boundary and 925s are above freezing, if it's not straight ripping it's raining. Surface at 40 is generally rain even if the rest is good. Doesnt take much time to melt a falling snowflake. It gets tricky higher up like 800mbs on up. Sneaky warm layers in the mid levels wreak havoc even if everything else is sub. Freezing. Very generally speaking, you don't want above freezing temps higher than say 4-500' off the ground when surface is also above freezing. How much above freezing matters too. Snow can survive 33-35 degree air on the way down from 925mb level. Since our areas are marginal more often than not, you have to consider each marginal storm in its entirety. Nobody is getting 6"+ without meso banding. Even if .6 qpf falls as snow. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d love to bring that map 50 air miles nw

0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast...

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast...

I just wish the significant precip could expand nw and still leave everyone in snow

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

0z runs are pretty important for the nw side expansion if it's going to happen. Enough data from the storm in progress will be ingested and any shift in any direction will be a strong clue if this end up like similar events or truly be a rare jack near I95 and sharp cutoff. I def dont claim to know how its going to break. History says nw bump. Model consistency today says not so fast...

Could also just happen in real time. 

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