Roger Smith Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Will join the party at 4-6" -- snow modelling does not seem to fit the pressure evolution very well, and then northward displacement of max snow axis has worked in past two storms, why not this one? ... 6-8" would be the upper end of possible outcomes given the speed. Good luck anyway. Great looks later in the 18z run for additional significant snowfalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 43/22 - and it feels colder than that somehow. For a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve seen Jan 2011 thrown around with this storm and I can’t see why. IIRC we got hammered by the closed h5 low as it came through. We don’t have that unless I haven’t been paying attention yea, i think more so a couple days ago when it looked like it was trending stronger. i think the association with this one could have been just the quick thump in a short amount of time. 87 was around a foot in 6-8 hours. jan 2011 was a scaled down version of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, 87storms said: this was one of my favorite snowstorms, though i was too young to know why/how it became a surprise (and borderline freakish) snowstorm. i was actually peeking at analogs this week because i thought this may have some similarities with the milder temps leading in, but it didn't show up. i think that one was a bombogenesis and caught forecasters off guard as it tracked up the coast. it's also in the ku book. jan 2011 is probably the closest to that one that i've seen, and feb 2014 as far as rates are concerned. Was a senior in HS and Feb was the greatest snow month for fun I've ever had. Bumper skiing all over the neighbornood. Bonfire midnight sledding parties with cases of OE800 tall boys packed in the snow at Strathmore. Cops came a few times to hang out and talk. Not to break it up. Life was so different back then but too many people did too many dumb thing in general and the party has been over since. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve seen Jan 2011 thrown around with this storm and I can’t see why. IIRC we got hammered by the closed h5 low as it came through. We don’t have that unless I haven’t been paying attention Jan 2011 was a big upper level bowling ball overnight. Not even close imo. Maybe temps and such. Dynamics/features? It's like comparing a ford mustang gt to a ford focus. They're both cars but kinda stops there 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Temp down to 36.5 already up here in N Frederick county. Bodes well I’d say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Jan 2011 was a big upper level bowling ball overnight. Not even close imo. Maybe temps and such. Dynamics/features? It's like comparing a ford mustang gt to a ford focus. They're both cars but kinda stops there Thanks. I am sometimes starting to worry about my memory but I thought I remembered that one pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 38/24, nice sunset. Concerned I'm too far west. Ehhhh, I don't know. I think I'd be willing to sacrifice a few inches in a storm like this, to have that cabin, in that location, with access to the kind of sunsets that I suspect you have access to. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 40/25 in Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 36/21 at KOKV. Once again, temps ain’t gonna be the issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Still feeling on track in Charlottesville. Bummed that it looks likely to start with rain, but hopefully we change over quick. Hopefully I'll be previewing the heavy bands for you guys tonight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 44/21 in Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, kristia said: 37 here currently. Still have plenty of snow from the last storm. Took this coming down the mountain earlier. I'm not to far south from you. 36 with full snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38 in Sykesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Already down to 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 43/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41/30 western Arlington. Cooling a little better than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 42/27 in SW Fairfax County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Temp fell off quickly. 36/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 46/21 in Huntingtown. Feels and smells like spring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 45/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Man she is hauling ass up to us… looking at radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 LOTS of reports in the south of precip quickly flipping over to shreds of paper, even with marginal temps. Upstairs is def cold! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve seen Jan 2011 thrown around with this storm and I can’t see why. IIRC we got hammered by the closed h5 low as it came through. We don’t have that unless I haven’t been paying attention The axis of heavy precip and evolution are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: LOTS of reports in the south of precip quickly flipping over to shreds of paper, even with marginal temps. Upstairs is def cold! Exactly. And it starts right off the deck. Even 925s are fine. The warm air is literally a tiny slice of an otheriwse a good column. Soundings matter. Not all "warmish" events are the same. If the warmth was thick I would have quite different thoughts right now. I've experienced enough marginal storms where the entire first half of precip is rain even with good 850s. Those ingredients arent present with this one 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsnowdog Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/25 in Sterling,VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. And it starts right off the deck. Even 925s are fine. The warm air is literally a tiny slice of an otheriwse a good column. Soundings matter. Not all "warmish" events are the same. If the warmth was thick I would have quite different thoughts right now. I've experienced enough marginal storms where the entire first half of precip is rain even with good 850s. Those ingredients arent present with this one How far up can the temperature be above freezing before it starts to melt? I’ve seen some snow at really warm temperatures before, really surprising. Maybe it depends on a bunch of things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 41/24 in Takoma park. Better than I was expecting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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