Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I guess they had to issue the full WSW because of how things looked as of 18z yesterday? Wonder if they downgrade it to an advisory this evening... That was my point. Just felt like they could have held off a bit before going to warnings. Especially being basically a 4 hour Sunday morning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12k on Weatherbell is way better than the usual 10:1 map, which is basically a disaster. Crazy how this has trended away from us. This area simply cannot catch a break the past five years. Maybe the late week event will finally break our way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. LOL...bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Made it into the low 40's today but still have full snowcover. I'll go 3-4 for northern crew. Equal chances to bust high or low. Temps. around 30 and the height. Hopefully when it ends we don't shoot up to 42 with full sunshine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: That was my point. Just felt like they could have held off a bit before going to warnings. Especially being basically a 4 hour Sunday morning event Mount Holly went from a watch to wwa here this morning. Based on trends, maybe they upgrade to a warning, although I wouldn't, because it would be low end if it did verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: As modeled it wouldn't here. Got the banding and the rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: That was my point. Just felt like they could have held off a bit before going to warnings. Especially being basically a 4 hour Sunday morning event Well, since 5" is the benchmark, as long as that was still a possibility, they probably had to go ahead and issue it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That’s not at peak banding though particularly for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Goddamn dude you haven't learned a thing here have you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ugh....south trend when we need north....north trend when we need south. Same story different day. I'm going to hold out hope for a 25 mile jog NW at game time. Or we could have a January 2010 deal where the precip shield is more robust than modeled. Never give up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Goddamn dude you haven't learned a thing here have you? This is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The 3K 10:1 map is disastrous outside of the eastern shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Not saying this is happening, but to prove how those surface p-type maps suck balls and maybe convince a weenie not to be lazy.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Ugh....south trend when we need north....north trend when we need south. Same story different day. I'm going to hold out hope for a 25 mile jog NW at game time. Or we could have a January 2010 deal where the precip shield is more robust than modeled. Never give up. Just dont lose sight that earlier this week there was no storm and now there is one. That's the most important trend because without it, discussing totals is as productive as the majority of washington football team's first round draft picks 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This is banter. Every post you make belongs in banter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If rain mixes as long as the 3km NAM shows, this could be the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not saying this is happening, but to prove how those surface p-type maps suck balls and maybe convince a weenie not to be lazy.. I will be in my weenie tears if I’m 36 and rain and you’re 33 and puking snow just across from the bay from me lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 12k on Weatherbell is way better than the usual 10:1 map, which is basically a disaster. Crazy how this has trended away from us. This area simply cannot catch a break the past five years. Maybe the late week event will finally break our way. Is it really "crazy" though? A few days ago it was supposed to be 50 degrees and Sunny on Sunday with this storm getting severely suppressed. It's been nearly 50 degrees for two days leading into this. Best case scenario was always for precip to be falling into 32-35 degree temps. The only possible way this was going to end up "significant" in any sense would be if the precip was very heavy in order to overcome to mediocre temperatures. CWG said 1-3 when the models we're pumping for 6-8. They said it was because the conditions need to work out nearly perfectly to get more than 1-3. I think they made the right call. They admit there's upside for any areas that get those very heavy rates, but if your reasonable expectations for this was anything more than a couple sloppy inches, I can't really understand that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just dont lose sight that earlier this week there was no storm and now there is one. That's the most important trend because without it, discussing totals is as productive as the majority of washington football team's first round draft picks This. Any snow is better than none. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ji clearly has his twin troll now...coincidentally they both post at Jay's wintry mix 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just dont lose sight that earlier this week there was no storm and now there is one. That's the most important trend because without it, discussing totals is as productive as the majority of washington football team's first round draft picks LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 31 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It’s decent if you’ve been keeping your expectations in check. We knew all along this was going to be a 32-34 event. Nothing much has changed except NAM QPF maps which always change run to run. The low is basically in the same spot. All I’m saying is that when the temp wants to be 33-34, and we need a force to keep it away from that... we fail 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 HRRR is pretty cold 32-34 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Honestly, I tend to read the PBP before heading to TTB myself because I get too much nervous excitement to ruin the drama. But the NAM doesn't look half bad. And the 3k...well I really don't trust it to be honest. For a high res model, I find it to be pretty bad at the QPF side especially when it comes to banding. Not bashing it or anything, but a NAM outcome with dynamic cooling would be an excellent outcome. I'll take a Euro/NAM blend and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: The 3K 10:1 map is disastrous outside of the eastern shore So basically it's you in model form. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: HRRR is pretty cold 32-34 Hard to say how much QPF though since the off runs are not in range yet. Thru this image it’s maybe like .2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Honestly, I tend to read the PBP before heading to TTB myself because I get too much nervous excitement to ruin the drama. But the NAM doesn't look half bad. And the 3k...well I really don't trust it to be honest. For a high res model, I find it to be pretty bad at the QPF side especially when it comes to banding. Not bashing it or anything, but a NAM outcome with dynamic cooling would be an excellent outcome. I'll take a Euro/NAM blend and call it a day. There's never a situation where the 12KM NAM can outscore the 3KM NAM with mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Hard to say how much QPF though since the off runs are not in range yet. Thru this image it’s maybe like .2? A lot of it is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There's never a situation where the 12KM NAM can outscore the 3KM NAM with mesoscale features. I disagree. The 3K performs quite terribly from my experience. It TRIES to perform better, but it can't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Hard to say how much QPF though since the off runs are not in range yet. Thru this image it’s maybe like .2? Yeah looks like about that with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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