North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: HRRR FWIW is .25-.3 QPF for most of us. You may need to give yourself a break. Step away from the models for a bit. Flip on Reelz channel and watch and see if Aerosmith can hang on through their breakup... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Remember I work in Baltimore City. I’m well aware of just how amazingly historically awful it’s been for snow there the last 5 years. I’ve even been worse than some parts of Baltimore city though too lol being here on the southeast side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: You may need to give yourself a break. Step away from the models for a bit. Flip on Reelz channel and watch and see if Aerosmith can hang on through their breakup... I’m at my Baltimore county Rec and parks job and there’s no recreation, so all I have to do is obsess over models on government wifi time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I’ve even been worse than some parts of Baltimore city though too lol being here on the southeast side. No elevation there. Parts of the city are much better in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: No elevation there. Parts of the city are much better in that regard. Yes agreed. Northwest city has some decent elevation in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM looks kinda anemic early on. Hope it amps up quick or this won’t be as good as 12z. Which wasn’t as good as 0z which wasn’t as good as 18z... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: NAM looks kinda anemic early on. Hope it amps up quick or this won’t be as good as 12z. Which wasn’t as good as 0z which wasn’t as good as 18z... It’s decent, good mix of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The nam is ok until you realize the sfc isn’t freezing until you go 50 miles nw of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It’s still decent but it continued the trend of a little drier. It’s slight, but there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, T. August said: The nam is ok until you realize the sfc isn’t freezing until you go 50 miles nw of 95. So long as we get .5-.6 of precipitation in 3-4 hours that won’t matter a lot. The question is will we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Anyone else see the disconnect between current radar and how the nam looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, T. August said: The nam is ok until you realize the sfc isn’t freezing until you go 50 miles nw of 95. It’s decent if you’ve been keeping your expectations in check. We knew all along this was going to be a 32-34 event. Nothing much has changed except NAM QPF maps which always change run to run. The low is basically in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It’s decent, good mix of all the models. Yea but it was the only model still showing a nice upside thump potential. You don’t want to see the most amped guidance trending towards the other more anemic. We want to see the anemic guidance trending towards the NAM lol. That is if we want a 4-8” storm and not a 2-4. I’ll still enjoy a few inches to freshen things up but I was kinda excited for the dynamic thump option we saw on guidance 24 hours ago. This is morphing into a more mundane nice but not memorable snowfall event on guidance today. Which kind of surprises me I honestly expected the amplification trend to continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NWS updated The air aloft is cold enough to support snow, and despite the warm conditions this afternoon, there should be enough dry air for wetbulb cooling to take place, causing any rain or rain/snow mix at the onset to change to snow for most areas. Even still, temperatures will be marginal at the surface near to perhaps even a degree or two above freezing across the metro areas and southern MD, to perhaps near or a degree/two below freezing near the Mason-Dixon Line and the higher elevations. Also, with the warm conditions leading up to the event, that will affect the SLR`s as well. Therefore, the accumulating snow will be dependent on the heavier snowfall rates, which are possible given the stronger frontogenetical forcing that is showing up in much of the guidance. The banding snow may overtake the marginal temperatures for a period Sunday morning, causing the snow to accumulate. Have continued with the Winter Storm Warnings for the Metro areas as well as northern and central Virginia, and central Maryland. These areas have the best chance for heavier precipitation with temps close enough to freezing for 3-6" most likely. Farther west across the northern Shenandoah Valley into the Potomac and Allegheny Highlands, Winter Weather Advisories are up for 2-4" of snow most likely. Temperatures will be colder leading to higher SLR`s, but the better chance for heavier snowfall rates will be to the east. Across southern MD, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Despite the heaviest precipitation rates across this area, temps will be a little warmer causing snow to mix with rain at times. The confidence in the forecast is lower than it would typically be because, the snowfall accumulation will be dependent on exactly where the heavier bands of snow setup since temps are marginal. Precipitation will move out of the area Sunday afternoon and most areas will rise well above freezing, causing any snow that does stick to melt. The one exception will be along the ridges of the Allegheny Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If the ECMWF is truth, College Park is looking at a 4 AM start with perhaps an inch per hour from 6 am till noon; temperatures holding steady through the morning at a workable 33 before touching 40 mid-afternoon - coldest morning of the year on Monday (wouldn't take much here, I haven't seen less than 23) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2-4" for everyone sounds good.. Going to be hard to get a snow depth of more than 4" on a paved surface, unless you're elevated, and well NW of 95 or there's extreme banding and a lot more precip than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I was looking at 3k. It’s not out far enough yet but man it looks kinda ehh at 8z Sunday compared to prior runs. The difference is a much less amplified trough so there is less moisture transport along the inverted trough with the NS low. The coastal looks about the same but a lot of our qpf was from the interaction with the trough and there is a lot less of that going on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2-4 with 6" possible under a good band. If its lgt-mod snow I wouldn't expect much stickage on pavement. Will be nice to freshen up the snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. lol yea after looking at that maybe 1-3" with 5" in the jackpot zones is a better call. Honestly looks like some place just west of the bay in AACo might jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. This is getting uneventful if you wanted the exciting fast and furious snow. That’s for sure. Keep expectations in check. Thought we might amp further as well but can’t win em all. We’ll see what the ground truth is, Radar looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 3k is warmer, dryer, and less amplified. But other then that it’s great. I was just about to post this. Was waiting for the total QPF map but it does look rather anemic based on the sim radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I got NAMed by the 12km. 3km looks in line with most of the rest of the guidance here. 4-6" Which translates to 2-4" in reality. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 THE 3km NAM is a disaster! It mixes with rain on and off throughout the event in D.C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Further east, less amped, less precip. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Had to post this for the lolz. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 So I guess they had to issue the full WSW because of how things looked as of 18z yesterday? Wonder if they downgrade it to an advisory this evening... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Had to post this for the lolz. There's no way that would happen if rain mixes in for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There's no way that would happen if rain mixes in for longer. As modeled it wouldn't here. Got the banding and the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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