mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: What is this notion that it’s so much colder north and west of 95? Even the NAM has pretty much the entire area at 33 for the duration of the event I’m not sure why you’re shitting on this threat so much. NAM gives you .6 qpf and most of that will be snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, dukeblue219 said: Because it's ALWAYS 36 in downtown DC while people in Rockville are reporting 29. Fine, but verbatim the modeling isn’t really predicting it to be that much colder north and west of 95...unless you’re like in the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 While all model snowfall output has to be taken with a grain of salt, which platform do you all think uses the Kuchera method most properly - seems WB is always more than Pivotal - despite using the "same" method (Kuchera). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Advisories serve a purpose as well. Just think they potentially could have waited a little longer to decide whether to go with advisory’s or warnings. Especially being a Sunday morning event and not rush hour traffic during the week stuff. Nobody ever wants to downgrade either, and that may be coming later today or as the storm starts for some. Someone can correct me if this is wrong but I think they post a warning if any spot in a county has the potential- so like if most of AA county is expected to be 2-4”, but a few areas could jackpot to 5” under a band, they go with the warning instead of the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: If it wasn’t such a marginal temperature event I’d be more inclined to agree. In the end, we’ll see Our perspectives are likely geared toward the way our my BYs perform in this type of setup. Bob and I tend to do decently here, being away from the bay and urban heat island. A defined SLP of this strength tracking where it is 9 times out of 10 is giving areas along and NW of I-95 3-5”. Heavy snow at sunrise through noon? It’s sticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, mappy said: I’m not sure why you’re shitting on this threat so much. NAM gives you .6 qpf and most of that will be snow. Don’t like relying on the NAM for QPF totals. I like it for temps. That’s me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Don’t like relying on the NAM for QPF totals. I like it for temps. That’s me. Okie dokie. I think you’re making it seems so much worse then it will be. If it’s puking snow, you’re accumulating at 33 degrees. Upstairs is plenty cold enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Don’t like relying on the NAM for QPF totals. I like it for temps. That’s me. Euro is pretty good with temps. Cherry picking things to argue doesn’t help your case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Okie dokie. I think you’re making it seems so much worse then it will be. If it’s puking snow, you’re accumulating at 33 degrees. Upstairs is plenty cold enough. If it’s puking snow I agree. The debate is if it’s gonna puke snow. Yes the NAM says yes. The other models? Not nearly as much. The euro is close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm pessimistic southeast of I-95. Rain or rain/snow mix early and temps struggling to reach freezing there. Hopefully rates can overcome it. 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: I'm pessimistic southeast of I-95. Rain or rain/snow mix early and temps struggling to reach freezing there. Hopefully rates can overcome it. Hell yes!! Second consecutive storm I don’t get that shitty grey. Good map, Mark. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: If it’s puking snow I agree. The debate is if it’s gonna puke snow. Yes the NAM says yes. The other models? Not nearly as much. The euro is close though. Sounds good. Well, enjoy whatever you get I guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Sounds good. Well, enjoy whatever you get I guess. As PSU said, I’m in the snow anus of Maryland right now though so, I’d lean low haha. Good luck to everyone though. I’m not trying to be pessimistic, this is just my take and opinions. I understand some people may not care for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: If it’s puking snow I agree. The debate is if it’s gonna puke snow. Yes the NAM says yes. The other models? Not nearly as much. The euro is close though. You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m going to predict that at 9pm DCA is 43/25 so that evaps down to 34/35 come crunch time. Now I may be missing that colder drier air will be pushing in before onset? Am I? Otherwise, this current air mass won’t do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Models pretty much agree with 2-5 for my area, I’ll predict 2 for my yard and be happy with that. Agree that someone gets banded and jackpots, I’m going to guess the Howard and Montgomery county crowd for this one based upon surface track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand. If that's the case, it's lrobably an attempt to mitigate disappointment (the whole "if I don't let myself believe a positive scenario can still happen, I won't be as disappointed when it doesn't"...I know, been there, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: If that's the case, it's lrobably an attempt to mitigate disappointment (the whole "if I don't let myself believe a positive scenario can still happen, I won't be as disappointed when it doesn't"...I know, been there, lol This is a storm discussion thread tho. Not weenie therapy or a coping room. Majority of lurkers come here for good analysis and sound information. I see good and bad here as well but I'm not choosing a side and vehemently defending it cuz you know... feelings... 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: This is a storm discussion thread tho. Not weenie therapy or a coping room. Majority of lurkers come here for good analysis and sound information. I see good and bad here as well but I'm not choosing a side and vehemently defending it cuz you know... feelings... Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand. Perhaps...but being a rate dependent storm, I don’t find it particularly encouraging that a lot of the guidance has trended drier in general over the last 12 hours. All I’m saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're focusing entirely too much on verbatim models and not thinking about the mechanics in play here. Yes, models could be right or much more wrong and it ends up a flurry. History says someone gets a pretty flush hit in short order and temps wont make a damn bit of difference for a few hours if it goes down that way. You seem to want to completely prove this as impossible for some reason that I (or anyone) doesnt understand. If I lived where he does I would probably find the worst model every run and obsess over it also. It’s actually somewhat amazing how awful it’s been where he is. Even while the whole area has been in a rut for the last 5 years his area had been by far worse. Got screwed by every storm. Literally. While some east locations got the Jan 18 and March 18 storms and westerners got March 17 and 18 and December 20 and DC got the Jan 19 storm he got the screw zone of EVERYTHING. He hasn’t seen a warning event since 2016! So yea he is being a deb. But I might have had a nuclear meltdown if I was in his position by now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 hours ago, wxtrix said: looks good. i expect a few of the western counties under a WWA to switch to warnings later today. Under a warning here in Augusta County now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If I lived where he does I would probably find the worst model every run and obsess over it also. It’s actually somewhat amazing how awful it’s been where he is. Even while the whole area has been in a rut for the last 5 years his area had been by far worse. Got screwed by every storm. Literally. While some east locations got the Jan 18 and March 18 storms and westerners got March 17 and 18 and December 20 and DC got the Jan 19 storm he got the screw zone of EVERYTHING. He hasn’t seen a warning event since 2016! So yea he is being a den. But I might have had a nuclear meltdown if I was in his position by now. I remember March 18 being OKAY. I think it was like a quick 4” but in soon as it stopped the melt was on. But yeah, that’s been tops for me I think since the big 16’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It is nice to hear someone acknowledge the pain over this way, bless you PSU. 46/23 and still have ice encrusted snowcover from earlier this week. Hoping for snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Agree For your and my yards, I'd be surprised if either cracked 6"+ or got less than 2". Not really a big spread of outcomes at this point imo. We're both in the heart of the climo boom stripe for this exact setup. If that changes I'll def say as much but haven't really changed my mind much since Wed when I became interested. I've actually become more optimistic in not getting the weenie shaft. No matter what, I'm expecting some people to be posting "raked rippage snowglobe" at some point tomorrow. Might be you, might be me, might be neither, but somebody is likely going to be all jacked up tomorrow morning under some yellows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: It is nice to hear someone acknowledge the pain over this way, bless you PSU. 46/23 and still have ice encrusted snowcover from earlier this week. Hoping for snow on snow. Remember I work in Baltimore City. I’m well aware of just how amazingly historically awful it’s been for snow there the last 5 years. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Mike Thomas just circled the area between D.C. and Baltimore for best max potential on his Facebook live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 HRRR FWIW is .25-.3 QPF for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Remember I work in Baltimore City. I’m well aware of just how amazingly historically awful it’s been for snow there the last 5 years. All localized droughts end up breaking out of it with a boom. That's a fact. Problem is, wx is cruel and it can outlast your life expectancy then dump 3' at your funeral 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It is nice to hear someone acknowledge the pain over this way, bless you PSU. 46/23 and still have ice encrusted snowcover from earlier this week. Hoping for snow on snow. People forget about SE HarCo too. They associate this county with Bel Air, Street, Norrisville, the big snow areas. The snow climo for Aberdeen, HdG and Edgewood is abysmal. Sunday was terrible compared to even over by you. Going with the least snowy model/forecast has always worked. like even the blizzard of ‘16. I measured around 20”. Bel Air?? 32”+. That’s 10 miles away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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