psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Based on this thread, We are 18 hours out and still do not if it is going to snow. God help us It’s going to snow. The problem is how much. And that’s tricky because of very marginal temps. If this was cold smoke a general 4-8” with local 10” call would be pretty safe. But the problem here is with very borderline barely cold enough to accumulate temps rates are important. Normally the difference between getting .4 qpf and .7 would be 4” or 7” which would both ball in a 4-8” range. But there is a huge difference here where .7 over 6 hours could be a 6” thump that overcomes temps while .4 over that same 6 hours doesn’t cool the boundary layer as much so it’s 34 instead of 33 and with lighter rates it’s 1-2” of slush on non paved surfaces! Now the forecast busted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hard to believe we a little more than 12 hours from first flakes and there’s not a great consensus 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yes... the GFS snow hole is back at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wxtrix said: looks good. i expect a few of the western counties under a WWA to switch to warnings later today. Agreed. A lot of the meso models have had a secondary max out that way and thermals will be more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Always Really Wet Bryan is a darn good forecaster. Bryan? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes... the GFS snow hole is back at 12Z The snow hole is right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: The snow hole is right over me. These types of posts are unneeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Seems like everything is still on the table at this point. I would take Millville's 4-7 with spots up to 9 and run with it right now given some of the trends. Agree with PSU that, with marginal temps, we looked great with 1-2+ inch per hour rates, but now that the models are lightening up on qpf, it's easy to go from 4-8 to almost nothing due to rates not allowing the snow to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 gfs looks like mostly a hold from 6z. maybe even a slightly better qpf output for dc/bmore. at this point, probably just need to hand things off to the next euro run/nam and whatever happens, happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The NAMs sometimes set the narrative too much since they come out first. But the fact is 18z yesterday was the high water mark wry amplitude across guidance. Since then taken in totality there has been a trend weaker with the system. The NAMs are the only guidance I’ve seen 12z yet that bucked that trend. Everything I just said is simply observation of guidance. No prediction. I’ve expected a continued trend towards a more amplified system but the truth is that halted 18z and since gone the wrong way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 So we're riding the NAM and Euro it seems. And the HRDPS I suppose. Really need the euro at 12z to hold firm with its call; more ticks lower on QPF would have us knocking on slush territory. I forget who said it, but one of the mets mentioned the 12k NAM and 3k NAM difference a day or so ago was worth paying attention to, as the 12k was much less amped and could signify something to watch since the 3k likes to overamp. Looking like a great call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: gfs looks like mostly a hold from 6z. maybe even a slightly better qpf output for dc/bmore. at this point, probably just need to hand things off to the next euro run/nam and whatever happens, happens. You and I shouldnt sweat too much. Whatever happens *should* treat moco fairly well in comparison region wide. I never had big hopes for totals. Standard 2-4/3-6 thoughts have been stuck in my head all week. I'm in it for the scene more than ground truth. Snow on superbowl sunday is special. 2015 superbowl sunday is the polar opposite if anyone want to think it cant get worse 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 HRDRPS trended weaker SE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys. First call map. I'll have a Disco later today with a Final Call tonight This is higher than I thought it would be NW I'm assuming better temps help, my head had the totals reversed with the SE guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: This is higher than I thought it would be NW I'm assuming better temps help, my head had the totals reversed with the SE guys. I agree with you with the latest trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Guys remember, I haven't looked at EVERYTHING and this was an on the fly forecast with a perusing through a few things. I may adjust numbers for a final call. For now, the thermal profile north and west of the fall line are pretty climo oriented, so just a matter of precip in liquid equivalent and potential banding during the best mid-level frontogen. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You and I shouldnt sweat too much. Whatever happens *should* treat moco fairly well in comparison region wide. I never had big hopes for totals. Standard 2-4/3-6 thoughts have been stuck in my head all week. I'm in it for the scene more than ground truth. Snow on superbowl sunday is special. 2015 superbowl sunday is the polar opposite if anyone want to think it cant get worse agreed, and just posted something similar in banter lol. i'm good with it just snowing and, of course, there's always the possible nw shift closer to gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I just washed 4 days of salt off my Jeep. It is definitely going to snow. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I was referring to the 9z Srefs ARWs that come out at 8-830am. They trended wetter from 3z I’m not predicting. I said I expected this to continue to amp up. But fact is on most guidance it’s going the wrong way right now. I did see the SREF run and that followed by the NAM was a good start to 12z. Since then it’s been a huge letdown. Everything else has gone the wrong way. We joke about hug the model with the most snow but how often does that work? It’s usually preponderance of evidence that wins. Maybe this is the time the snowy one wins. It happens. I have expected to see a continued amp trend and am kind of shocked this reversed course. Maybe it juices up at 18z or 0z. That’s very possible. I’m simply making observations and there are more not good ones then I like to see right now. Let me finish by saying we’re probably still safe for some snow but I’m worried the solutions yesterday we were giddy over with talk of crazy fgen and 2”hr rates and someone getting 10” is slipping away and that’s what I’m in this for. I don’t really invest in 1-3” events. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Canadian holds on further east solution too. Heaviest snow on eastern shore. Looks like a Cambridge to Dover Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 CMC was a tick NW but pretty much the same. Also drier; gotta be in the heavy bands to get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Everything looks on track for it to snow. Usual adjustment possible, usual unknowns with banding. I’m super stoked to have snow in the AM and super bowl in PM, should make for a great day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Guys remember, I haven't looked at EVERYTHING and this was an on the fly forecast with a perusing through a few things. I may adjust numbers for a final call. For now, the thermal profile north and west of the fall line are pretty climo oriented, so just a matter of precip in liquid equivalent and potential banding during the best mid-level frontogen. Which could mean just west of the fall line like let’s say 18.7 miles jackpots even with less precip...going with that for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 My write up on my weather page...you can pull the QPF images for yourselves lol. Ok let’s look at a couple things folks. As you recall, I’ve been saying this storm tomorrow will be all about the rates and heavy precipitation. The amount of precipitation we call it in the weather world QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast). In my opinion at least .5 of precipitation is the magic number here. If we get .5 precipitation (which is the blue shaded color in these maps) then I think we have a good shot at picking up a quick 3-4-5” of snow Sunday morning. The NAM model is showing this for most of the region as you can see in the 2nd image. On the other hand the Canadian (pictured first) and the GFS models have the .5 line over onto the eastern shore. So if those models are right the Baltimore area would only get about .3 of precipitation. In my opinion that WONT work for significant snow accumulations with marginal temps as the precipitation will be only light to moderate and any snowfall rates won’t be able to overcome the warmer ground so we would mainly just see a little slush and that’s it. We NEED the models with the .5 and above QPF to verify so that we get moderate to heavy snow and the rates overcome the warm ground. Unfortunately we just don’t have the best data agreement right now, so we’ll have to see how this plays out thru the day and into the morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Which could mean just west of the fall line like let’s say 18.7 miles jackpots even with less precip...going with that for now Why is this turning to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Why is this turning to rain? Cuz we live in the mid atlantic! Duh! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Analog wise I see mixing and rain issues even around DC so going to veer off and forecast DCA will not reach nor exceed 4” with same accumulation maxes likely even 15 miles north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Why is this turning to rain? Who knows. We know the drill unless the cold is in place you run the risk of...you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: After last weekend, RGEM is dead to me. It could show 50 meters or 5mms and I wouldnt flinch. Might be right but I aint no sucker Amen brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Radar comparison now vs 12z nam at 17z shows precip is further north and more expansive #notaradarhallucination 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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