mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Post less. Am I not supposed to mention the ICON? Lol it may not be a very good model, but it’s still relevant in the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, mappy said: How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? Everything was going great until Baltimore wxguy took the thread over. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? No. Scared! Terrified. But i’ll forget everything once it starts falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? We have potentially one of the best periods of winter in a long time coming up. I would think everyone is somewhat happy. Yes? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Other then the NAMs, the early hints across other 12z guidance (hrrr, ARW, NNB, HRW, Icon, RGEM) is a continuation of the trend towards less amplified and thus less qpf. That’s bad for everyone. With marginal temps the extreme rates are necessary to get good accumulations. This is a setup where there is an exponential effect. It’s not like .8 qpf = 8” and .5= 5”. This is a setup where .8 could be 7” and .5 could be 1- 2”. 6 hours of moderate snow won’t work here. We need that OMG face banding on the coastal plain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Other then the NAMs, the early hints across other 12z guidance (hrrr, ARW, NNB, HRW, Icon, RGEM) is a continuation of the trend towards less amplified and thus less qpf. That’s bad for everyone. With marginal temps the extreme rates are necessary to get good accumulations. This is a setup where there is an exponential effect. It’s not like .8 qpf = 8” and .5= 5”. This is a setup where .8 could be 7” and .5 could be 1- 2”. 6 hours of moderate snow won’t work here. We need that OMG face banding on the coastal plain. Thanks. But apparently I need to post less! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? YUP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: How’s everyone doing? Good? Excited for snow? Can't speak for everyone but I'm sticking with this idea. You most certainly agree me thinks. Tracker same 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12z Rgem Kuchera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Everything was going great until Baltimore wxguy took the thread over. lol 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: No. Scared! Terrified. But i’ll forget everything once it starts falling. It’s it’s snow, be happy with what you get 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: We have potentially one of the best periods of winter in a long time coming up. I would think everyone is somewhat happy. Yes? Amen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Curious how did you do with the last event? He did not great, as most of us in Baltimore did not great. But he's also too damn negative too often. I blame him for our misses in Balt City. Bad juju. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 nam is inspiring; the latest gfs was not. need any further se shifts to stop and probably could use one more move nw. i don't think light rates will cut it with this storm...we've learned that lesson already. also seeing some hints that there could be a zone in between the better rates closer to the lp track and higher elevations. i think i'd rather be closer to the low track with this one for the best lift and take my risks with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Can't speak for everyone but I'm sticking with this idea. You most certainly agree me thinks. Tracker same Any snow is good in my book. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 After last weekend, RGEM is dead to me. It could show 50 meters or 5mms and I wouldnt flinch. Might be right but I aint no sucker 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This reminds me of that event we were supposed to get blitzed with rates early in the AM, couple years ago. Rates and intense banding didn’t really pan, and we got like 1.3” in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Other then the NAMs, the early hints across other 12z guidance (hrrr, ARW, NNB, HRW, Icon, RGEM) is a continuation of the trend towards less amplified and thus less qpf. That’s bad for everyone. With marginal temps the extreme rates are necessary to get good accumulations. This is a setup where there is an exponential effect. It’s not like .8 qpf = 8” and .5= 5”. This is a setup where .8 could be 7” and .5 could be 1- 2”. 6 hours of moderate snow won’t work here. We need that OMG face banding on the coastal plain. Won't work here for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If we could get it to snow, it would be snow on snow in my neighborhood as we've held snow cover in the shady spots thanks to the freezing rain glaze over the snowpack from Monday AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: This reminds me of that event we were supposed to get blitzed with rates early in the AM, couple years ago. Rates and intense banding didn’t really pan, and we got like 1.3” in Baltimore. I think most need to keep their expectations in check. Lot of our snow is going to come down to who gets under good bands. And that’s not something models are gonna predict spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hey guys. First call map. I'll have a Disco later today with a Final Call tonight 23 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Thanks. But apparently I need to post less! Your location has kinda been the snow anus of the region lately. And because of that (understandably imo) you’ve been a bit of a deb. Because of that though some probably just assume you are debbing even when your point is legit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ARWs were wetter fwiw Not the 12z ARW. It is VERY dry. NMB is actually wetter ironically previous run for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Beautiful map MilleVilleWx! I am locking that up and tossing any models that disagree 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Based on this thread, We are 18 hours out and still do not if it is going to snow. God help us 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey guys. First call map. I'll have a Disco later today with a Final Call tonight Good map. Starting to think us in the N&W will do best as models have shown secondary banding here to go w/better thermals. Can compensate and accumulate even if rates aren’t crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Bullseye 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Right or wrong GFS ain’t budging. Just really low QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Bullseye It’s a crappy run for most of us. But maybe it’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Right or wrong GFS ain’t budging. Just really low QPF It's trended weaker with SLP each of it's last 4 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Srefs juiced up from 3z . ARWs are uber wet lol Always Really Wet 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: Bryan is a darn good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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