Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: no... the idea is to make ONE call. If you make 3, then you can be right all the time - that's the problem CWG can say they were right if we get 4-6 because of their "boom" CWG can say they were right if we get 2-4 because that was their "call" CWG can say they were right if we get 1" because that was their "bust" What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end? The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jebman said: Congrats to all in the Mid Atlantic on your latest Winter Storm Watch!!!!!! You'll get good accumulating snows with this then a kick ass Arctic airmass! This, is only the beginning............................... Thanks for the positive Vibes @Jebman This thread has went down hill... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end? The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego. This is exactly right... Our objective to explain to people the range of possibilities.... while also giving them a sense of what we think is most likely, based on our experience/analysis. This is all in the spirit of helping them prepare and make decisions, manage expectations, understand the best/worst case, etc. Of course, we aim to get it right and we take pride when we nail a tough forecast... But ultimately, our goal is to serve our audience and make them understand the forecast and complexities so they'll be ready whatever happens. 6 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 models must have been meh based on the banter fest going on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Apologize for the size of the attachment. 24 hr max precip - latest SREF. Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 12 hr max is pretty wild too .75+ for much of the area What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Apologize for the size of the attachment. 24 hr max precip - latest SREF. Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 12 hr max is pretty wild too .75+ for much of the area What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FWIW... 00z EPS. It is an increase by an 1-1.5" and nudged NW compared to 18z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW... 00z EPS. It is an increase by an inch and nudged NW compared to 18z Very solid. I like my area for this. Too far NW and I know how that story goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Very solid. I like my area for this. Too far NW and I know how that story goes. Agree. Think the dc to Baltimore corridor and points in between are in for the goods here. Won’t be a foot, but it’ll be a great Sunday morning and afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: FWIW... 00z EPS. It is an increase by an 1-1.5" and nudged NW compared to 18z Pretty damn solid for an EPS mean 24 out. Let’s do this! Hope to see things juice back up a bit at 6z, but a nice 3-6” event sounds great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Clear move SE in the 06z parent NAM though unfortunately for those out west of the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Clear move SE in the 06z parent NAM though unfortunately for those out west of the BR Definitely. 95 special looking a little more likely than at this point yesterday. The fat lady hasn’t sung yet! WINTER STORM Warnings just posted btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Warning summary: 3-6 Nova/dc to Baltimore 4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East) WWA for Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 WWA for Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5 WSW 5-10 for BR mountains 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Warnings and advisories issued. Watches remain up in areas of uncertainty it appears... Warnings: 3-6 Nova/dc through central MD 4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East - they included Baltimore city and all of Baltimore county) 5-10 for BR mountains WWA’s Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Both NAMs fairly unimpressive - 2-4 in most spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Both NAMs fairly unimpressive - 2-4 in most spots. Still puts down 3 to 6/4 to 8 i95 and just east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 LWX morning AFD for the event Focus then turns to low pressure developing over the Deep South. Model guidance has largely stabilized in terms of track, but finer scale details remain modestly uncertain. This includes the exact lower-level temperature profile and the placement of any mesoscale bands. 1000-500 mb thickness packing, overlaid with 850 hPa temperatures and speed convergence around 700 hPa suggest the best potential for heavier bands of snow will reside largely up and down the US-29 corridor early to mid morning Sunday. This is supported by a climatologically favorable surface low pressure track from near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to just offshore of Norfolk, Virginia. The potential for banded snow is on the northwestern edge of the higher projected precipitation amounts from raw model output, though that output could be underdone beneath any such bands. Snow ratios will be higher (with temperatures lower) given lift in the dendritic growth zone within any bands (and due to dynamic cooling amidst heavier precipitation rates). It is in these areas that a Winter Storm Warning has been posted (from the central Virginia foothills northeastward across northern Virginia, central and northeastern Maryland including the Washington DC and Baltimore MD metro areas). The Winter Storm Warnings are flanked by Winter Weather Advisories to the northwest and southeast where lesser amounts are anticipated overall. Although temperatures across northwestern Virginia, eastern West Virginia and portions of northern Maryland west of the Catoctin Mountains will be colder, precipitation amounts are expected to be less; any northwestward shift would result in higher amounts, though. To the southeast over southern Maryland, marginal temperatures cast doubt on the efficiency of snowfall accumulation, though higher precipitation amounts and potential bands could overcome this resulting in higher snowfall totals. In the warning area, if steadier snow is not persistent or heavy enough, temperatures will be a pinch warmer, resulting in somewhat lower snowfall totals locally. Precipitation should exit the area by or shortly after midday despite the slight slowing trend in the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FWIW, 06z ICON still looks good for most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It would be great for most to get a 3-5 inch snowfall. Posted the probs for the next two weeks in the long range thread. Lots of opportunities in the next two weeks, which is exactly what we want during peak snow climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 06z RGEM is a big nudge NW in portions of the QPF field compared to 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Both NAMs fairly unimpressive - 2-4 in most spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z RGEM is a big nudge NW in portions of the QPF field compared to 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 which results in below re snow accum changes on the 06z RGEM compared to the 00z RGEM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6z GFS has best precip further SE. A bit weaker/drier overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 With marginal temps and the speed of this system, it really comes down to banding. Those areas that get under it probably see 4"+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Speaking of which...perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Sounds like start time is same as last week for me so just hoping for a repeat over here. Just give me enough to take the kids sledding and I’m good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Based on everything I see im going with the following Leesburg - 3-4" Sykesville 3-4" final call Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Still puts down 3 to 6/4 to 8 i95 and just east Wow. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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