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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I take it you are probably going to tuck frame into bed with you tonight? That's some serious lift for a good 2 hr period for your hood

I see it now on TT but it skips hrs 27-33 go figure. Regardless great area of lift traversing through and then really firing up up toward northern VA/DC crew with that low getting cranking.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Perfect placement for the max stripe on the ARW 

A8CB2184-1DA1-41F5-81C8-4D037C4076CB.thumb.png.52ee3b776c92bd3ac280a0c092aefd70.png

ARW was very amped. CAPE would absolutely despise this run for sure. I honestly want him to get hit. He's just barely missed so many times. Would be awesome for the I-95 crew though. There will be winners and losers like any other time. There will be winner and losers within 10-15 miles of each other with this kind of event. Band central

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

ARW was very amped. CAPE would absolutely despise this run for sure. I honestly want him to get hit. He's just barely missed so many times. Would be awesome for the I-95 crew though. There will be winners and losers like any other time. There will be winner and losers within 10-15 miles of each other with this kind of event. Band central

What do you know about the HRW?  I’m not familiar with it. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What do you know about the HRW?  I’m not familiar with it. 

It's a CAM, so it can exaggerate in the synoptic scale due to convective feedback concerns that stem from latent heat release and localized pressure falls. @csnavywx touched on the limitations of the higher res models in a synoptic scale setup. It's okay in the short term (<24 hrs) as it can show banding characteristics, but it's prone to larger swings in guidance, especially SLP positioning. The NSSL is the same deal, although I found it to be not as jumpy with handling the surface reflection compared to the ARW/NMM. It is AWFUL with ULL though, so anything like that, avoid at all costs. 

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FYI from the evening LWX AFD update:

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
9:00 PM UPDATE: For the short term period, the primary concern
is of course the upcoming winter storm for Saturday night into
Sunday. Winter Storm Watches remain for much of the forecast
area. Decisions will be made at a later time in regards to where
and Advisories or Warnings may go. See the previous discussion
for more details on the system, as total snow forecasts have
changed very little. If anything, plan to come up a little on
the 90th percentile, as some guidance is hinting at some higher
amounts across portions of the area.

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