NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 5 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Wow what a run of the NAM, it's doubling down from last run I see. It hasn't performed that poorly as of late... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This will definitely move even further north and result in rain/snow mix to all rain for CHO. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Sorry folks, Chuck Bell says partly cloudy and 52 on Sunday on WTOP just now. Yeah, this morning's AFD from LWX is NOT aging well..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Yeah, this morning's AFD from LWX is NOT aging well..... This afternoon's mentioned the move north... and not much else really .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure builds back in on Friday night on northwest flow, allowing temps to drop back below freezing. Otherwise, mostly dry, though a weak wave passing to the north could bring snow showers to the Allegheny Front overnight into early Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure will briefly dominate, with seasonable temps. This no longer appears to last, as a sudden shift northward with virtually all guidance now brings low pressure northward Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing clouds and increasing chance of precipition as we head towards morning. Marginal boundary layer suggests a wet snow is most likely for much of the area where precipitation begins by late Saturday night, though given the model disparity, keep pops chance thru the night. Lows mostly near freezing. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... There remains a lot of uncertainty for the forecast on Sunday. Over the past few days, the weather models have been trending south with a potential coastal low which had lead to a dry forecast for Sunday. Over the past few runs, all models have started to trend back further north. Generally, models are forecasting a multiple low event with one low originating out in the lower plains while a low forms down in the gulf and moves toward the east coast. Previous solutions had these lows split our region with one moving to the northwest and one to the south. Recent trends have the lows phasing over the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas late Saturday into Sunday. A general trend north and westward is slowly bringing increasing chances for precipitation and snow on Sunday. The lack of good high pressure placement to the north along with warm temperatures leading up to the event may prevent a good low level cold layer which would limit snow accumulations. Trends over the next 24 hours will be critical especially since the originating upper level wave is located over Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It not only trended more amped but colder too! So long as it doesn’t shift north more amped is good in a marginal temp setup. Of course it’s a tightrope because more amped can pump ridging in front and shift the boundary north. However, there is a window of opportunity here for both more amped but not north which the NAM just highlighted. That’s to get the wave to start to amp far enough east that it can’t pump too much ridging in front. It’s a thread the needle timing wise but it’s possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, The Ole Bucket said: This will definitely move even further north and result in rain/snow mix to all rain for CHO. Bank it. That's why you gotta savor the digital dopamine now. I agree that this becoming a NW storm is the most likely frustration here. That band of heavies is rather narrow. Kuchera below. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like you need to drive back to CHO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 If this comes close to verifying I will eat one of my hats. And I have a lot of hats. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: 32/33 will do if its really coming down at 1" an hour and overnight like the NAM shows. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nothing quite like the feeling of a good ole happy hour Naming especially when it reinforces 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: Close enough for a paste job! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: They may not be that cold, but they are aren't that warm. It's only 34 a couple hundred miles SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: That's how you get a Thomas Kinkade scene like in my profile pic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: They may not be that cold, but they are aren't that warm. It's only 34 a couple hundred miles SE. Yeah, these temps with those rates would work just fine. What doesn't really work for accumulating is the 33 and flurries/light snow like we had with the last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: Not saying that it will be the same... but Commutageddon had temps like this and we all remember what happened 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: 850s look great, but surface temps aren't cold during heaviest precip: Surface will be fine for most as long as the heavy precip is legit. It’s gonna be a paste—drip event in the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 LWX is on board! Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 So we are about 60 hours out from first flakes and the NAM doubled down. #RonPaul 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I was kind of expecting the 3k to laugh in our faces but it looks like it's going towards a similar (probably slightly less extreme) result as the 12k. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I know this is stating the obvious, but I wouldn't completely mind a run (maybe 0z tonight) where things get shifted south, with subsequent runs correcting back northwards until gametime. In any case, I love the "recovery" by the last few suites. None of the mood swings as with long-term tracking, and sll of the simple pleasure of having things pop in the shorter term. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not enough hot dog emojis for that map, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18z 3km NAM ripping at 60 across most of the region btw... probably not going to be as great a run as its brother... but still would probably be 6"+ Ninja'd by @NorthArlington101 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That's how you get a Thomas Kinkade scene like in my profile pic Sunday would be drippy (like most of my Sundays). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was kind of expecting the 3k to laugh in our faces but it looks like it's going towards a similar (probably slightly less extreme) result as the 12k. Perfect start time too, can’t beat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was kind of expecting the 3k to laugh in our faces but it looks like it's going towards a similar (probably slightly less extreme) result as the 12k. Not sure about that, check out the 1hr snowfall rates lol. Also the 3k pushes the 850 boundary even farther north, honestly was looking like it was gonna get close to mixing, but not sure we could complain after 1-2"/hr rates for 3+ hours and then thumping sleet lol. PSU mentioned this in the 3-7 day chat but this feels similar to Feb 17 2018.. marginal temps surrounding the event and it looked super good for us at the day 3-4 range (but it jogged on North and we got lucky with good rates for a bit). Although all guidance considered we're probably in a good spot, still some misses to balance out the NW solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was kind of expecting the 3k to laugh in our faces but it looks like it's going towards a similar (probably slightly less extreme) result as the 12k. I would take a colder but slightly less juicy solution over playing the knife-edge game... which we always lose. Although actually.. there was one win I can recall. December 9-10 2018. That was a tremendous storm for CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 thats ^^^ a good old fashion nam-ing... happy hour to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Wow...could a thread the needle event actually go in our favor for once? In a Nina? This would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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