DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Is that DC? Ninja myself on the 3k run to say it was sweet for us. Try 1-2"/hr for a few hours Sunday morning. Must see TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 i have never seen the NAM3K so wet and/or wetter than the NAM12k 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So a couple days ago I asked if we might have some thunder snow, most people said not really but with the stronger low and better forcing (from my mediocre knowledge) on the 3km Nam I was wondering if that has changed and we might get some thunder snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: This isn't even in the same stratosphere as the last system. Evolution and moisture transport are totally different. Upper levels are different. This will come down to rates and evap cooling of the lowest 3000' in the boundary layer. Baltimore still looks good, but areas west of I-83 need to watch for anymore NW trend. Not saying the genesis of the storms are similar at all - just noting the similarities in trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The watch can be issued prior to fine tuning the grids. I personally don't like doing that, but I think they want to get the word out quickly and then shape up the grids to accurately portray what they are thinking right now. Yup makes sense. Looks like they wanted to be sure and then just pulled the trigger after coordinating with surrounding WFOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Winter Storm Watch just issued -- been a while since I've seen so many counties in the DMV all included under a Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, MDRandy said: Another win for the Euro by the way. The GFS has had as much success at long-range forecasting as the Buccaneers are going to have slowing down the Chiefs offense on Sunday. Probably best not to declare any model a winner until after the threat happens. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, real said: Winter Storm Watch just issued -- been a while since I've seen so many counties in the DMV all included under a Watch Prince died too. In case you missed that news as well. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, GATECH said: Time for Rand Paul to bring it home... You mean Ron, not Rand! (not a fan of Rand... or Ron for that matter...but always like the "its happening!" gif!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like powder to start here transitioning to wet snow . But those Euro overnight lows Sunday night are coldest of the year verbatim Oh I thought you were referring to later next week lol. No powder here with this one. Pure Paste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Prince died too. In case you missed that news as well. just copy and paste it for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, MDRandy said: Just like last week when model consensus at this time consistently showed double digit totals up and down 95. This is a completely different system. We don't have a low to our west driving north of our latitude with a transfer to the coast. eta: Just saw your post, but my point, which you get, was that your not comparing apples to apples. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice to see it get cold post event. Snow that hangs around is great. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: You mean Ron, not Rand! (not a fan of Rand... or Ron for that matter...but always like the "its happening!" gif!) Fixed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Highs going to be too strong to allow low into mouth of bay. Over or 35 miles east of VA Beach most likely track 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yeah, if we see more dynamic runs like the NAM's just delivered @ 18z, look out. We're waiting for one of those RGEM runs with 18". Hell no. I’m good on all that. RGEM is cursed until further notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is a completely different system. We don't have a low to our west driving north of our latitude with a transfer to the coast. eta: Just saw your post, but my point, which you get, was that your not comparing apples to apples. Do you think there will be enough blocking to prevent further NW trends? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3k is fun. Man 41-46 hours. I have >1" QPF in 6 hours on the 3k. Right into my veins. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 RGEM decides on a nice SE run after coming nicely in line at 12z and the CMC smacked us. Typical. Not a lot of consistency this week from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ji said: i have never seen the NAM3K so wet and/or wetter than the NAM12k Resolution wins right? Great, let's book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Could we possibly get our 3rd 6"+ storm of the season? I've never personally seen more than 3 in a season before. Would enter rarified air, with the rest of the season to bag historic #4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, MDRandy said: One more tick NW - probably tonight or tomorrow - and the 95 corridor is just a rain/snow mix. This looks like a 81 corridor special I dont think so.. I mean I guess anything is possible.. but when we saw the jackpot in VA tidewater we knew that we were sitting in the perfect spot... its only about 36 hours from the onset.. the track is fairly locked in at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 But not to worry, the 18z ICON is a crusher for most CAPE and W out to OKV. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well after all the downplaying, Mount Holly just went 4-8 here. Haha. This is the sort of event where we start off 4-8, downgrade to 2-4, and finish with a coating to an inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Call LWX and tell them to hurry with their AFD. There are important weenies out there that need this. In the meantime I believe Sue Palka just tweeted her forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z ICON pretty much crushes the region nicely 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The new king just got juicier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Could we possibly get our 3rd 6"+ storm of the season? I've never personally seen more than 3 in a season before. Would enter rarified air, with the rest of the season to bag historic #4. I'd like my first 6" storm of the season. In fact, I'd like at least 6" total, given that I'm at 5.5". Let's woo away any more NW jogs in this thing and keep it where its at. Those people up in PA have already had enough snow already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: Haha. This is the sort of event where we start off 4-8, downgrade to 2-4, and finish with a coating to an inch possible. Who is we, Kimosabe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Who is we, Kimosabe? Eastern Shore, Denton down to Easton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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