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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just wanted to say I think the Mets who post in our forum are great. Really appreciate you guys being here.

Oh yeah, one more thing. I think it keeps coming north (or stronger if you prefer). Lol

You think it’ll go north? You don’t say - you’ve said it 30 times since yesterday. 

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GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. 
 

Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. 
 

Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all. 

I think we're looking pretty good in our neck. The N/W periphery of the heaviest QPF usually has forcing from h25 impacts combined w/the frontogensis like you've seen on some of Milllville's maps. 

 

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Srefs juiced up i95 nw . They are money up here . Good mean low track ( slp goes over  Va. Beach to off OC )...with juice :sled:

Uh oh, we love a good SREF'ing before the HH NAM comes out. Has been a precursor to some of our all time greatest NAMings. 

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I think we're looking pretty good in our neck. The N/W periphery of the heaviest QPF usually has forcing from h25 impacts combined w/the frontogensis like you've seen on some of Milllville's maps. 

 

Uh oh, we love a good SREF'ing before the HH NAM comes out. Has been a precursor to some of our all time greatest NAMings. 

I’m waiting until 12z tomorrow to decide whether or not I spend this one up here in union bridge or down at my broski’s in Howard county. Going to be an interesting balance of better temps/ratios and lower QPF with higher QPF but more marginal temps. Think we could see 10-12:1 ratios up this way tbh. Also think we actually have a better shot at that meso  mauling being further north but those details will get ironed out in the next 24 hopefully. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

I’m waiting until 12z tomorrow to decide whether or not I spend this one up here in union bridge or down at my broski’s in Howard county. Going to be an interesting balance of better temps/ratios and lower QPF with higher QPF but more marginal temps. Think we could see 10-12:1 ratios up this way tbh. Also think we actually have a better shot at that meal mauling being further north but those details will get ironed out in the next 24 hopefully. 

I'd always take temps and elevation.

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9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

GFS looked great. Don’t worry about clown maps / QPF, this is a MESO model storm for details through and through. Especially with all of that 700mb frontogenesis action going on. That 12z gfs setup means good snow for almost all of us. Ukie also looked good - and probably too dry versus the actual outcome of a storm that evolved in such a manner. 
 

Very exciting trends going on. Maybe my house is safe up here after all. 

Looks good up here. The .3 qpf. extends well into PA. Our temps look good and 850's look good. Ratios here will be good and if the storm stays on the same track some models are hinting at an enhanced band through our area. Sometimes storms can have 2 maxes.  Another bump or 2 north is possible too and then we get hit real good.

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Looks good up here. The .3 qpf. extends well into PA. Our temps look good and 850's look good. Ratios here will be good and if the storm stays on the same track some models are hinting at an enhanced band through our area. Sometimes storms can have 2 maxes.  Another bump or 2 north is possible too and then we get hit real good.

Yup. It's entirely possible that we see a more uniform snowfall map in the end because a) northern areas have colder temps to counteract the lower precip and b) lower elevation areas have more precip to overcome the more marginal temps.

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

While it is stronger that northern piece is pressing a bit more and is slightly more ahead of the flow, but I think this should be a good run :)

I'd assume the two will level out for a similar evolution to 12z, but nice to see our s/w amping up like that while also interacting with the northern piece. 

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