stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Either the euro is gonna be on its own and right or it’s just really not running hot right now. Which Euro are you guys looking at? I'm at 30 and it looks better (s.w) than 0z 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Which Euro are you guys looking at? I'm at 30 and it looks better (s.w) than 0z Better than 6z too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Better tilt and stronger SW than 6z to my eyes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 48 Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Amped said: It does look a lot less amped than the GFS at 24hrs. Somebody should take your computer away for 24hrs. 6 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 A tick stronger SLP and a tick NW. Looks very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro gets snow in prior to sunrise. Once it starts, not let up...good to see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Trimmed some of the NW extent of the precip however, thought everything trended a little better but really confines the heavy precip east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Trimmed some of the NW extent of the precip however, thought everything trended a little better but really confines the heavy precip east. I really don’t mind that look sitting in dc 36 hours out... I would imagine given the lack of suppressing flow there could be a tick or two north and west prior to Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Anybody know how well the Euro does with banding? I would think since it's a global, not well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Oh..... I am shocked, SHOCKED to see the bullseye near @mappys house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Anybody know how well the Euro does with banding? I would think since it's a global, not well? I would think it would handle it better than the GFS due to its higher resolution. The moderate rates the Euro is depicted won't work too well with temps 33-34 during the height of it. Highest 3 hr precip is .2 ish. Nam had .5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: @MillvilleWx perfect call ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 @stormtracker I was in the car, just assuming amped was reading the run right. Of course he wasn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We all aren’t celebrating that euro run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We all aren’t celebrating that euro run lol You will be with a couple more nw trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Euro is still the most SE of all the guidance right now, but partly due to a slightly weaker 5H vort as it exits the southern plains. It was close to the NAM 12km strength and orientation, but still a touch flatter. The best 7H ascent is focused along and SE of I-95. Could very well be right, but the trends are for a bit more emphasis to the NW within a strengthening mid-level frontogenic piece that moves NNW as the low tracks to the NNE, instead of NE like the Euro. That would push the higher QPF back further west. I still like a blend of GFS/Euro surface with mesoscale premise of the NAM Nest and HREF blends. They seem to be rock steady in the development of the precip back further west due to large scale ascent from a strengthening 25H jet streak to the NE. All Hi-res guidance has a prolific 3-6 hr period of snowfall across the western half of the eastern shore over to about US15. There could be a secondary western band that develops due to orographic enhancement and passage of the 5H trough as it pivots ENE out of WV. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible during the storm height with 8-10:1 ratios fairly common in a wide swath of the sub-forum. There will be slightly higher ratios within the heart of any bands developing on the northern fringe of the mid-level frontogenic band as it moves north. Also, areas out west into the Blue Ridge and Alleghany front will see higher ratios due to colder mid and upper level temps due to passage of the s/w trough mentioned earlier. I'm sticking with wide spread 3-6" with a max of 10" the likely scenario given the marginal lower boundary layer temp profile, as well as the quick storm motion that will limit training banding potential that is common with captured disturbances. 8 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, frd said: @MillvilleWx perfect call ! We shall see! Certainly looks like a decent snowfall is in the cards for you and @CAPE. I'm hoping y'all can cash 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We all aren’t celebrating that euro run lol I am. Snow is snow and what falls falls 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, frd said: @MillvilleWx perfect call ! This one would make us happier after the last one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro caving to the NAM again. The NAM has been the best model this winter. Hell must have frozen over. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I wouldn't complain at a quick 2-4, 3-6 inch type of event... nothing to sneeze at for this area really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Euro caving to the NAM again. The NAM has been the best model this winter. Hell must have frozen over. According Bernie Rayno that's next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I am shocked, SHOCKED to see the bullseye near @mappys house. just catching up, my boss called a meeting during the euro. the nerve. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: just catching up, my boss called a meeting during the euro. the nerve. Sheesh. Someone needs a talking to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: just catching up, my boss called a meeting during the euro. the nerve. You should quit. Boss should know better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Anyweather said: You should quit. Boss should know better. We need to educate folks on what 1-2 pm means during the winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Sheesh. Someone needs a talking to! 15 minutes ago, Anyweather said: You should quit. Boss should know better. 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We need to educate folks on what 1-2 pm means during the winter I KNOW RIGHT?!?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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