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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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Just now, LP08 said:

Trimmed some of the NW extent of the precip  however, thought everything trended a little better but really confines the heavy precip east.

I really don’t mind that look sitting in dc 36 hours out... I would imagine given the lack of suppressing flow there could be a tick or two north and west prior to Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anybody know how well the Euro does with banding?  I would think since it's a global, not well?

I would think it would handle it better than the GFS due to its higher resolution.  The moderate rates the Euro is depicted won't work too well with temps 33-34 during the height of it.  Highest 3 hr precip is .2 ish.  Nam had .5

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The Euro is still the most SE of all the guidance right now, but partly due to a slightly weaker 5H vort as it exits the southern plains. It was close to the NAM 12km strength and orientation, but still a touch flatter. The best 7H ascent is focused along and SE of I-95. Could very well be right, but the trends are for a bit more emphasis to the NW within a strengthening mid-level frontogenic piece that moves NNW as the low tracks to the NNE, instead of NE like the Euro. That would push the higher QPF back further west. I still like a blend of GFS/Euro surface with mesoscale premise of the NAM Nest and HREF blends. They seem to be rock steady in the development of the precip back further west due to large scale ascent from a strengthening 25H jet streak to the NE. All Hi-res guidance has a prolific 3-6 hr period of snowfall across the western half of the eastern shore over to about US15. There could be a secondary western band that develops due to orographic enhancement and passage of the 5H trough as it pivots ENE out of WV. Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be possible during the storm height with 8-10:1 ratios fairly common in a wide swath of the sub-forum. There will be slightly higher ratios within the heart of any bands developing on the northern fringe of the mid-level frontogenic band as it moves north. Also, areas out west into the Blue Ridge and Alleghany front will see higher ratios due to colder mid and upper level temps due to passage of the s/w trough mentioned earlier. I'm sticking with wide spread 3-6" with a max of 10" the likely scenario given the marginal lower boundary layer temp profile, as well as the quick storm motion that will limit training banding potential that is common with captured disturbances.  

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17 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Sheesh. Someone needs a talking to!

 

15 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

You should quit. Boss should know better. 

 

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We need to educate folks on what 1-2 pm means during the winter :lol:

I KNOW RIGHT?!?! 

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