jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, mappy said: tell us again how you think Richmond will be disappointed. Well... if you really think about it... Richmond MAY be disappointed. Not sure yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Para GFS was pretty cold too Great news! Perhaps we get lucky and thread the needle with timing of cold / storm arrival. Hell, I’d love some decent ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Well... if you really think about it... Richmond MAY be disappointed. Not sure yet Your "sincere" concern is quite the salve and balm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, benjammin said: Your "sincere" concern is quite the salve and balm. More like wishcasting for MBY.... this is a cut throat hobby my friend. No two ways about it. Either way the cookie crumbles, a bunch of people will be disappointed come Monday morning. Just a snow weenie hoping it’s not me is all. Nothing but love always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'm not in Richmond anyway, but you are right it is simply MBY for all of us and it more often than not it is not a zero sum game. When it comes to snow the people in North Carolina look down on those in South Carolina, Virginia looks down on North Carolina, MD on Virginia, Pennsylania on MD, and on and on. Then there is the whole east or west of the fall line plus elevation (my spot is higher than yours). It's all good. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, benjammin said: I'm not in Richmond anyway, but you are right it is simply MBY for all of us and it more often than not it is not a zero sum game. When it comes to snow the people in North Carolina look down on those in South Carolina, Virginia looks down on North Carolina, MD on Virginia, Pennsylania on MD, and on and on. Then there is the whole east or west of the fall line plus elevation (my spot is higher than yours). It's all good. I do think this storm has a better shot at producing a regionwide snowfall (coast & inland) than the last storm, just not with the high totals. A widespread 2-4, lollipop 5-6” type storm could be in the cards if it all lined up. Better QPF near and east of 95, better ratios and dendrite growth up north... you know, the usual. The timing with precip falling mainly overnight / early AM and the arrival of cold air is beginning to look like it could work out just how we need it to. going to be an interesting next 24 hours of model watching. I’m off work at 730, so I look forward to reading everyone’s thoughts about the 18z suite. Speaking of which.... NAM should be out soon, no? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, jayyy said: Think a few days ago I would have disagreed. However, modes have definitely backed off the major cold and confluence in New England ahead of the system idea in a pretty significant way, allowing room for this to keep trending north - along with a better PAC look. Do think there is a ceiling for trending north however, as the trough won’t be that sharp. Don’t see this exiting the coast much north of OBX I really don’t have any idea. I just don’t see the shredder that we’ve had so often. I’m now wondering what happens if we see that energy interact more when it’s back over the central us. The ICON had that very scenario in its run from 36 hours ago and it put a low in WV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Had a rookie/lurker question to ask looking at the 500mb map. It looks as if the true cold is kind of walled off at/above the great lakes which would make the "source" of cold the no man's land between the lakes and the system as it moves through the area? If I'm reading this right, that would mean there's not much to stop it from drawing in more warm air if the system continues to amplify as it moves up the coast and temps would at best be marginal? Thank you all for the knowledge you continue to provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, hobbes9 said: Had a rookie/lurker question to ask looking at the 500mb map. It looks as if the true cold is kind of walled off at/above the great lakes which would make the "source" of cold the no man's land between the lakes and the system as it moves through the area? If I'm reading this right, that would mean there's not much to stop it from drawing in more warm air if the system continues to amplify as it moves up the coast and temps would at best be marginal? Thank you all for the knowledge you continue to provide. Cold air will definitely not be as deep as we thought it would be for Sunday at this point a few days ago. However, a storm that tracks well to our SE will draw in cold NW winds. It will be close, but the PARA, NAM, euro and GEFS all kind of show you how we can overcome the marginal setup at the surface if things fall into place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: Limited to no banter People clearly took this to heart... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Alright folks I’ll be back tonight! Here’s to a solid 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: People clearly took this to heart... Limited banter in between model runs is okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, ers-wxman1 said: Track of that low pressure system will be determined by where the front/baroclinic zone ultimately ends up...hence the waffling of the guidance suppressed vs coming back north. But the euro shifted like 400 miles twice over the last 5 days... Thats pretty awful IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 40 minutes ago, jayyy said: Typical ICON cold bias sadly. Also think ICON only shows rain/snow, not mix. I may be mistaken though. You think ICON has a COLD bias? Seriously? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: You think ICON has a COLD bias? Seriously? I would say based off experience that's definitely not the case. Right in between there somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 NAM not backing off at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 My thought on the Nam through 54 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Snowing at 03z Sunday (10pm SAT) on 18z NAM at DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Come on I need about 8” more base to be able to ski the goat trail down the 350 feet of vertical behind my house. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 CHO right on the edge of the sleet line at 63. Ripping in DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 DC CRUSHED at 63 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: CHO right on the edge of the sleet line at 63. Ripping in DC. I assure you if the model is showing that, it will be pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Over an inch of liquid. That will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sorry folks, Chuck Bell says partly cloudy and 52 on Sunday on WTOP just now. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 997mb SLP SE of Ocean City at 66... still ripping in DC but mix line approaches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 My goodness, 6-8 inches area wide by 12z Sunday and still dumping. LFG. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Sorry folks, Chuck Bell says partly cloudy and 52 on Sunday on WTOP just now. Assuming he is just a rip and reader....does any model show that at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Verbatim, Kuchera says this gives CHO 11" through 15z. 10:1 drops more than a foot. Zero percent chance that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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