Weather Will Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WB 12Z GFS 4am and 7am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Better Kuchera. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS has a really nice negatively tilted trough axis on 06 & 12z Sunday. Good placement too for everyone. Definitely a very nice run 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The dynamics of this one will definitely make the Meso's more valuable than globals as we get closer in. Not surprised the GFS doesn't have the same level of outcome on this evolution that the NAM & RGEM do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Snow maps are going to be useless, especially with the GFS. I seriously doubt the broad brush of uniform amounts. Its going to come down to mesoscale banding with uneven amounts throughout. GFS track is good for the region and it will come down to game time where the bands set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS would be a solid advisory level event for everyone, all the better that it's on a weekend so we can all enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WB 12Z GFS Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just wanted to say I think the Mets who post in our forum are great. Really appreciate you guys being here. Oh yeah, one more thing. I think it keeps coming north (or stronger if you prefer). Lol 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just wanted to say I think the Mets who post in our forum are great. Really appreciate you guys being here. Oh yeah, one more thing. I think it keeps coming north (or stronger if you prefer). Lol The word is trend. And, I’d also be surprised if it didn’t continue trending north before game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: This is definitely true. Look at temps, snow growth, etc. But despite all our talk, we rarely get snow ratios outside a 8-12:1 range. With the look of the soundings we’ve seen on the NAM and even GFS, I don’t see this storm being different. So unless a storm probably has substantial sleet (not the case Sunday) then the 10:1 snow maps are probably decent. Definitely true for the majority of the area. One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios. With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios. 15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010). Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Definitely true for the majority of the area. One of my "secrets" up here actually is ratios. With my elevation (about 1,050 ft) I typically do get higher ratios. 15-1 is pretty common and I have even gone 20-1 in some storms (feb 10 2010). Yea the orographics help get a little more precip but its actually more so the ratios that account for my "jack zone" more often then not. I can believe that. I had about 2" of snow (plus sleet/rain) from our December storm and then was up in your area the following weekend. Your neck of the woods was beautiful with at least 6-8" of snow still on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Good disco by LWX: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coveted shortwave trough responsible for the rather dramatic shifts in the forecast for the second half of the weekend moved onshore of western North America overnight, and is expected to be amplify over the Tennessee River Valley Saturday night. This will result in cyclogenesis (development of low pressure) off the southeast coast. It appears the northwestward trend in the track of this low pressure closer to the coast is due at least in part to (1) a slightly stronger ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean deflecting the low pressure closer to the coast, and (2) slightly more separation and amplification between the incoming shortwave trough, and low pressure associated with today`s cold front departing over southeastern Canada; this results in a subtle yet all-important opportunity for phasing between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. What this means in terms of sensible weather locally is that the chances for precipitation have increased markedly for Saturday night into Sunday. The airmass will be marginally cold (see: high temperatures near 50 the preceding day on Saturday), but should be cold enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall as snow (though a start as light rain or a mix is possible). The late- night timing of precipitation and dynamic cooling aloft from lift between the phasing shortwave troughs on the northwest side of the surface low should keep temperatures cold enough for (wet) snow during the height of the event, and the dynamics may result in a few bands of moderately heavy snow at times, particularly SE of US-29. The potential for a warning-level snowfall event (5"+ in 12 hours east of the Appalachian Mountains) seems modest despite the dynamics given the marginal temperatures and the short duration of the event. Still, any further shifts may result in an uptick (or downtick) in forecasted snowfall amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Canadian looks to be a pretty substantial hit FWIW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Canadian looks to be a pretty substantial hit FWIW The canadian mimics the NAMs intense 700mb frontogenetic forcing all the way up into Long Island. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Now we need a stall lol 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: This map should be flagged as inappropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now we need a stall lol If the Canadian solution occurs but we take into account your trend prediction, we’ll be getting double digits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I’d like to see a storm someday that snowed 1/2” per hour for 96 hours 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Canadian kuchera. I'm all in as of now. Bullseye right over my house. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I leave for Mexico tomorrow morning so I promise all you Baltimore peeps that this storm will break through the snow bubble 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d like to see a storm someday that snowed 1/2” per hour for 96 hours Stuff of dreams there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The storm pulls in a good amount of moisture from the gulf (and even further south) during it’s formation. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if qpf juiced up more as we get closer. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Stuff of dreams there! Or we could do a 36” storm in 6 hours 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What time do the gefs come out? I know it used to be around 12:30 but I think some of you post them a lot earlier now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice hit on 12z uncle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: What time do the gefs come out? I know it used to be around 12:30 but I think some of you post them a lot earlier now They’ve been out. I’d actually say they ticked SE oddly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: They’ve been out. I’d actually say they ticked SE oddly enough Think that’s skewed by the few members that are still complete whiffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 HREF mean. Does not capture the whole event; only through 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now we need a stall lol Not sure we should be flushing snow down the toilet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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