Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 These speak for themselves.. Mauled. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I wouldn't take the precip maps (QPF) to verbatim because there will be some pretty good bands and pockets of where others will see a lot more precip and others will suffer. Nature of the beast in the meso sense. Still a good moisture advection signal, but the uniformity of 1+" QPF is very unlikely in this setup. 0.6-0.8 uniformity back to perhaps US15 is possible with 1+" jacks in between a certainty with whoever can get sustained banding. Also, take into consideration some orographic enhancement over Parrs Ridge and the Blue Ridge out west. Should be some decent snow totals out of this. 3-6" with local to 10" is still my call for the area I just outlined. If NAM amplification is to be taken verbatim, might have to push my heaviest westward extent to I-81. Jury still out, but some snow will fall back that way, imo no matter what. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Crushing 700mb frontogenesis band Sunday morning with 2”/hr rates. 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12Z WB 3K NAM 11 am Sun 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is definitely true. Look at temps, snow growth, etc. But despite all our talk, we rarely get snow ratios outside a 8-12:1 range. With the look of the soundings we’ve seen on the NAM and even GFS, I don’t see this storm being different. So unless a storm probably has substantial sleet (not the case Sunday) then the 10:1 snow maps are probably decent. If surface temperatures were a couple degrees below freezing, I would feel more confident that ratios would be > 10:1. But while the antecedent air mass is fairly cold, there isn't a much of a surface high or mid-level confluence to our northeast promoting a low-level flow of cold air. Surface melting during the precipitation will definitely reduce ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I may very well be going down to see my brother in HoCo for this one. Seems to be a solid spot to be. Far enough north for good temps and far enough south to get in on some of the goods 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Disc said: These speak for themselves.. Mauled. Man, you might need a cigarette if that verified. It's going to be a gorgeous morning down that way on Sunday. I've been honking the mid-level fronto for a few days. It's been hefty on guidance. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Man, you might need a cigarette if that verified. It's going to be a gorgeous morning down that way on Sunday. I've been honking the mid-level fronto for a few days. It's been hefty on guidance. I agree. Very dynamic system with an intense band showing along the periphery of this system on other guidance as well. Where does it set up? Dunno yet, but someone will hit the lotto. I didn't post the two frames before these, but it pivots over the 81 corridor down here for several hours. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: On Channel 5 News this morning they were saying 1 - 2 inches with a mix ending as rain this Sunday. I'm confused. They didn't even indicate that totals could be higher. Because there is still a question of how Far East the storm forms etc. models keep trending better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think 3K NAM is showing more realistic best case scenario...a uniform 4-7" mostly accross the area. Would be awesome to see those rates though predawn but might be tough to get up that early on a Sunday before the SB lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I believe 12z guidance across the board will improve. Lots of big hits in the ensemble spread and looks likely that's where we are headed. WSW criteria snow for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 3K NAM 5am Sun Ew, that’s a lot of sleet. Still time, so we’ll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 What are the thoughts on the sleet shown on the NAM for the Richmond area? With upper air cooperative wouldn't this be a rain or snow situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 RGEM is a mauling for just about everyone CAPE N/W to FDK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM’d!!!! Let’s go!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: On Channel 5 News this morning they were saying 1 - 2 inches with a mix ending as rain this Sunday. I'm confused. They didn't even indicate that totals could be higher. I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yay! The12z Nam is a crowd pleaser with a wide swath of 5-8 for the whole form. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: whoa. The RGEM (which can eat it). If it's right, it'll come off of super secret probation. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says? I was watching WJLA 7 during my workout this morning and the weather lady said there was no chance for significant snow and don't even expect any to accumulate on surfaces other than grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Wow, you can see how stronger the shortwave trended here...squint hard enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'd imagine NWS will hold off on issuing a WSW until after the 12Z suite? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: whoa. The RGEM (which can eat it). If it's right, it'll come off of super secret probation. It’s nice to see the RGEM and hi res NAM looking very similar within 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Man, if there was only a way to slow this thing down. What a mauling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: you can see how stronger the shortwave trended here Bold of you to assume I can see anything on those maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM and RGEM would imply low end warning criteria snow for everyone east of I-81. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, VA Mad Man said: I'd imagine NWS will hold off on issuing a WSW until after the 12Z suite? My guess would be after Euro. In the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 And we've been NAM'd. Something that never happened with Sunday-Tuesday's storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: I was watching WJLA 7 during my workout this morning and the weather lady said there was no chance for significant snow and don't even expect any to accumulate on surfaces other than grass. If this storm does give an area wide 6-10 inches of snow like the NAM model overnight the news will be in some deep mistrust because it is a day before the event and they were forecasting nothing. Would be a little funny seeing everyone wake up on Sunday with heavy snow falling and 5 inches on the ground thinking they were getting nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: I'm thinking 8-10:1 given the mid-level frontogen involved with the wave. The s/w is still fairly prolific on guidance right now and there's going to be significant large scale ascent from the 25H jet amplifying to the north. I think one of the things the globals are not going to pick up on is that meso banding is all but a given with the current 7H progs. The 7H fronto AND 85H fronto will actually work in your favor, so you'll have deeper boundary layer lift compared to areas north and west. They have the mid-level fronto, but eastern shore will likely cash on both, which is why I like your spot, Easton, Kent Island, down to Cambridge as the local jack with central DE as another good spot pending the northern latitude push of the surface low along the coast. I'm rooting for you! 48 minutes ago, high risk said: I have been one of the loudest proponents for looking at the snow depth maps, but that is because most events have a big area of sleet or mixed precip, and the 10:1 maps are horribly inflated since sleet gets tallied with snow into the snow water equivalent. This is a setup in which I would NOT advocate the snow maps for 2 reasons 1) this is mostly a rain or snow event with probably only a small band of sleet somewhere to our south, so 10:1 (maybe mentally lower it by 10-15% or so) map should be ok 2) snow depth maps are underdone in events with marginal temperatures and with warm temperatures the day before which warm the top soil layer. The land-surface model sees 33 degrees and warm soil and says "well, this is going to struggle to accumulate", not accounting for the fact that big rates can overcome those negatives. Do either of you know whether the Kucera ratio is applied at the NCEP level or if it is something that is derived by each of the individual map providers? I know that College of Dupage has added a map of the Kucera ratio. For this storm, it is ~7:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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