csnavywx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 3k and 12k being different is important. 3k phases a bit better and there's a significant band of instability that is entrained ahead of the system, along with quite a bit of convection, which will definitely have an effect on precip and track placement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 06Z NAM Nest for Sat night-Sunday. Definitely juicy. This is with the Ferrier rime correction (capped at 10-1). If it's all snow w/o rimed flakes and a >10-1 SLR, we would get more. The NAM Nest Ferrier snow maps did a pretty good job in the DC area for the WAA phase in the last event (on Sunday). 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 For those worried about the RGEM (it can eat it), it says yes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Icon actually moved a little NW. Still a nice hit. Icon just won't let it go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: 06Z NAM Nest for Sat night-Sunday. Definitely juicy. This is with the Ferrier rime correction (capped at 10-1). If it's all snow w/o rimed flakes and a >10-1 SLR, we would get more. The NAM Nest Ferrier snow maps did a pretty good job in the DC area for the WAA phase in the last event (on Sunday). What is the NAM nest? Like an ensemble of all the different resolutions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 11Z Sunday over the District per the 06Z 3km NAM. Nice lift in the DGZ. If it comes to fruition, we would see MUCH better dendrites than we saw last Sunday. Thus much better (faster) accumulation efficiency. Like 4+ inches within 12 hours instead of having to wait 24-36 hours (lol). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: What is the NAM nest? Like an ensemble of all the different resolutions? NAM Nest = NAM CONUS-Nested version, or 3km. It's the NAM's CAM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For those worried about the RGEM (it can eat it), it says yes. That's quite a big yes on the 06z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: 06Z NAM Nest for Sat night-Sunday. Definitely juicy. This is with the Ferrier rime correction (capped at 10-1). If it's all snow w/o rimed flakes and a >10-1 SLR, we would get more. The NAM Nest Ferrier snow maps did a pretty good job in the DC area for the WAA phase in the last event (on Sunday). Before the last event on our Philly forum Tony (rainshadow) posted the model that’s supposed to be replacing the NAM soon. I forget what it’s called, but it did an amazing job. I think it begins with a C but idk lol. I’ll see if I can get a snow map off its recent run. I found it... so supposedly this will be the model replacing the NAM. This was its forecast before the last event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6z gfs slightly improved, bit more ridging thru 51hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 6z gfs slightly improved, bit more ridging thru 51hrs Looks nice to me at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Looks nice to me at 54 Yea great run. Not quite, but starting to get bit of a consensus here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 54 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: 11Z Sunday over the District per the 06Z 3km NAM. Nice lift in the DGZ. If it comes to fruition, we would see MUCH better dendrites than we saw last Sunday. Thus much better (faster) accumulation efficiency. Like 4+ inches within 12 hours instead of having to wait 24-36 hours (lol). Why is that? Is it because the sounding you are showing has colder air straight up through the column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Given temps, and esp if the best lift ends up along/east of I-95, I hope folks aren't taking any of these snow maps literally. Looking like a 2-4" deal to me, which would be just fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: I'll tell you...Easton, MD is looking like a prime spot for this one right now. That and Kent and Arrows area in Queen Anne's. I really hope @CAPE gets crushed someway, somehow. If those areas are prime, my yard should be. I usually do better than those areas in marginal temp events because I am further E/NE and away from any moderating influences from the bay. What do you figure the liquid/snow ratios will be? Even if there is good lift through the DGZ, the lower level temps are super marginal, so I would think maybe 7:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, WxMan1 said: 11Z Sunday over the District per the 06Z 3km NAM. Nice lift in the DGZ. If it comes to fruition, we would see MUCH better dendrites than we saw last Sunday. Thus much better (faster) accumulation efficiency. Like 4+ inches within 12 hours instead of having to wait 24-36 hours (lol). Yes, this is a much better sounding compared to what we saw last Sunday, where cloud tops were only around -10C. There's also some convective instabilitiy at cloud top near -20C that would be favorable for ice crystal generating cells; when these ice crystals fall into the saturated dendritic growth layer below, they grow rapidly and stick together, forming fluffy aggregates. If these profiles simulated by the 3-km NAM were to verify, I think the snow-liquid-ratio would be > 10:1 with fairly intense precipitation rates. FWIW, the profiles on the 06z-GFS have similar features around this time. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 To me, the gfs showed more interaction with the streams. I’m gonna ride this one until the end. I don’t see it not coming more north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 WB 6z EURO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Given temps, and esp if the best lift ends up along/east of I-95, I hope folks aren't taking any of these snow maps literally. Looking like a 2-4" deal to me, which would be just fine. Thank you for that - good to temper expectations. Since temps are an issue, do you see this having a big impact on roads Sunday? It sounds like it will be coming down pretty fast, but I’m wondering about accumulation on surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Make hay while the sun shines SoMDers. We outta just be thankful for a model run that gives us the snow even if there's not a chance in hades that it verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That 3k tho.... 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 When does the 9z NAM come out? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When does the 9z NAM come out? 3hrs after the 06Z? ETA, according to WB I think it's 835am EST....for the 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: That 3k tho.... I grew up in Charles County- it happens. We got hit hard during the Veterans Day storm. My parents often had more snow than me (FFX Co), but this sounds like temps are too marginal for SoMD to get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Starting to cluster 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, IronTy said: That 3k tho.... Why are you showing 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why are you showing 10:1? You prefer kuchera? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: You prefer kuchera? I'm surprised they look the same! Ttb depth map only shows 3-4" for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'm surprised they look the same! That's a sign, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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