Ravens94 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'm laughing so hard I'm crying at the snow hole. The models have ingested snow hole data or something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The differences between 00z UKIE at 48 and 12z UKIE at 60 are... large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ukie is a nice hit. Atleast 3 to 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol what? Two contributors to the snow hole: 1) most of the snow to our north falls early tomorrow morning 2) if you look closely at p-type maps, there is a little area of rain right over DC and just south and another over the northern Chesapeake Bay early Sunday The urban heat island effect (which is overaggressive in the GFS) and warm waters, with a marginal air mass in place and weaker precip rates, are contributing to the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Ukie is a nice hit. Atleast 3 to 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Careful using straight 10:1 here. It's more likely to be 6-8:1 or more like the consistency of paste or wet concrete. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Didn't see anyone post the 00z GEFS. Probably because it looks practically identical when it comes to snow. 00z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That was a hell of a move north. I’ll take 5” (don’t you dare say it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 There is several big hits in the GEFS Need to zoom sorry they are small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 38 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: There is several big hits in the GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 EURO is more NW by a fair bit. 00z: 18z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah, better run compared to 18z and 12z. This map pretty much covers the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks good to me. Would love to freshen up the snow pack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Looks good to me. Would love to freshen up the snow pack. I'd rather have the NAM twins lol... but 2-4 would be great as we go into the week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Now that the full 0z suite is in I don't think we can say there was a southeast trend...what we saw was a tightening of the goalposts... the most amplified guidance (NAM/GFS) trended less so but the least amplified guidance (GGEM/Euro/UK) trended more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Is the Euro the only one with this phantom storm at 120? we get rain, but it seems stronger than all other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is the Euro the only one with this phantom storm at 120? we get rain, but it seems stronger than all other models You may have to be 5 posted. You posted in the wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Is the Euro the only one with this phantom storm at 120? we get rain, but it seems stronger than all other models Other guidance keeps the NS and SS split and has a weak wave to north which pulls the boundary south for the possible waves later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice increase on EPS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Ugh the nam is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Ugh the nam is a disaster It's not. It's lighter for sure and going the wrong way. You could win an Oscar for drama. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Ugh the nam is a disaster Remember that there's 2 NAMs and follow Bob Chill's rule about the best model to follow in times like these but yeah that relaxation to the SE can stop for sure lol. I'll hug the 3k/Ukie/EPS combo for now ig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll hug the 06z 3k NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah, 3k NAM is better vs 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 It's not. It's lighter for sure and going the wrong way. You could win an Oscar for drama.It gives you zero accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not. It's lighter for sure and going the wrong way. You could win an Oscar for drama. It gives you zero accumulation 3k Drama King. Let's see what 6 hours brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, 3k NAM is better vs 12k 1" QPF at DCA on 06z 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Never seen the 3k and 12k so different . Usually 3k is way drier 2. Cleary it shows a more potent 500mb map but why such a difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 3k did trend se a bit from 00z so its also going the wrong wayWhere is the north shift that we only get when it screws us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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