MD Snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It looked like it there...but then the low took a NE instead of NNE track from NC and the heavy precip stayed southeast of 95. Close miss to the SE with the heavy snow. Don't you think the NE turn is because the wave in the plains was faster ejecting and further east this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Don't you think the NE turn is because the wave in the plains was faster ejecting and further east this run? on the ICON the issue is the NS breaks off a vort from the main lobe that is pinwheeling north of the lakes and dives to about Lake Ontario which compresses the flow just enough to prevent the low from a north turn from NC. 18z that wasn't there. The wave was actually a little better on the 0z ICON. The NAM/ICON had a similar trend but for very different reasons. The NAM trended better with the NS but weaker with the SS. The ICON the other way around. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: on the ICON the issue is the NS breaks off a vort from the main lobe that is pinwheeling north of the lakes and dives to about Lake Ontario which compresses the flow just enough to prevent the low from a north turn from NC. 18z that wasn't there. The wave was actually a little better on the 0z ICON. The NAM/ICON had a similar trend but for very different reasons. The NAM trended better with the NS but weaker with the SS. The ICON the other way around. lol Such minor features are going to have play on this up til the very last moment. You’d assume tomorrow during the day we’d get clarity being under 36 hours from game time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Icon is gonna have the day 7-8 overrunning beast event that the gfs has too FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just for lols but check out the Omega and elevated CAPE combo in this sounding over northern Delware. At the least it shows the potential with this one fronto-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: You make it impossible to avoid banter I'm sorry, please don't warn me. I'll move it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Gfs is pretty similar to 18z. maybe slightly SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GooFuS looks aiiight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 slightly less amplified SS wave. That seems to be a trend so far at 0z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Well, about all the 0z’s took a step back with amplification of the SS wave. That being said, tomorrow will likely provide a lot of clarity for us in the day before the “event.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped It’s one suite Ji. Still a lot of reason to believe this comes N for us. The models moved hundreds of miles in 6 hours. Let’s see the next 2 cycles to really get an idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 CMC looks a lot better through 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped Relax bud. If 12z tomorrow looks suppressed, we can begin to worry a bit. Think about where we were 24-36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped how much snow did you get this week again? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: how much snow did you get this week again? no idea--probably 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: slightly less amplified SS wave. That seems to be a trend so far at 0z. Still 48 to 60 hours out. Probably a good thing the north trend stopped for the moment. Don't think we are done with that. The last storms bullseye ended up being a couple hundred miles north of where it was 72 hours out. Every storm is different but I've seen this movie enough over the years to know we need it slightly south 3 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: how much snow did you get this week again? Ji won’t be satisfied until the jackpot is in his backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Lol what? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Lol what? That definitely looks believable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol what? Sh!t it KNOWS 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We are roughly 60 hours out... correct me if I’m wrong, but 60 hours out from the previous storm, we were potentially expecting feet, not inches. Things went north rather quickly within 60. We don’t want that here. We are close. Not there yet, but things have most certainly trended in our direction. I’d rather OP runs look suppressed with an improving look upstairs conducive of a storm that can amplify / come north, than have a jackpot over our heads this far out. Be calm, my friends. We got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Sh!t it KNOWS CMC doesn’t look too bad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Funny stuff. 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look precip panels are out. It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything. Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also. Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend. Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z. These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run. If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: precip panels are out. It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything. Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also. Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend. Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z. These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run. If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend. Maybe we flatlanders can get one this year... it wouldn't be the worst thing ever for it to not be a fall line special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Appreciate the insight, as always @psuhoffman. I’ll take a sizable trend in our direction 60 hours out and call it a win. If this season has taught our region anything, it’s that a storm will absolutely not do what models are showing at 60. Plenty of time. Ill be worried if the cmc looks the same at 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That’s a solid trend ^^. PLENTY of room to improve with 60 to go. Hope to wake up to good news! Goodnight my friends 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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