JakkelWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The best accumulations I expect from this storm are about 1, 2 or maybe even 3 inches. Gonna go with the lower end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is NSFW right here 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Agreed that the look at h5/500 actually improved quite a bit, despite the track further SE on the OP run. Have a feeling by the time this is all said and done, the 95 corridor will be the place to be. Will likely go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. PS - maybe Richmond won’t be disappointed after all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This is NSFW right here I need 30 miles if you can make that happen. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The best accumulations I expect from this storm are about 1, 2 or maybe even 3 inches. Gonna go with the lower end Idk about that man. You’re in a prime spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: These systems don't phase, but if the NS gets ahead , it will crush the SS before it gets up the coast. So you should probably hope the SS doesn't slow down here, and the NS doesn't speed up. Either will lead to a weaker further south system. 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 100% and was looking at that myself. Trying to convince myself that the ns isn’t just a tad out in front this run but I’m having a hard time doing that. That is a danger...but its also a path to a big hit. The northern stream isn't progressing east its pinwheeling in the upper great lakes. So it does get out "ahead" briefly this run which is why the wave starts out more suppressed initially. But because the NS isn't progressing east the SS wave will eventually get out in front of the flow and once that happens it turns north and should gain latitude fairly easily. There is NOTHING in the flow to stop it. The only issue would be if the wave gets squashed so much it can't recover but I don't necessarily see that here yet. But that NS preventing this from amplifying and gaining latitude UNTIL it is over the southeast saves us because this would cut to the north pole otherwise in this flow. We need it to be shunted into the southeast before amplifying and gaining latitude...and yes its a thread the needle because if it gets shunted too far then it can't recover but we have to dance with that devil here if we want to have a shot at a frozen and not wet solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z RGEM is taking it slow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM is taking it slow lol I saw someone post in southeast forum that it’s more south and east of 18z but I can only access out until hr24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I saw someone post in southeast forum that it’s more south and east of 18z but I can only access out until hr24 its out on PW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I would like my 15.5” back! What is the difference between the 12k and the 3k, other than the 12k always seems to have more snow? 3k has higher resolution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The RGEM can eat it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: RGEM is yuck. It has the next system right on its heels. That is not helping. It is way ahead of the progression on the NAM and GFS with that next wave and its way more amplified. I think that is kicking this thing more on the rgem and cmc. What's a more realistic scenario between the two? I'm more prone to trust the NAM--honestly--but of course it's not like the RGEM is never reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: RGEM is yuck. It has the next system right on its heels. That is not helping. It is way ahead of the progression on the NAM and GFS with that next wave and its way more amplified. I think that is kicking this thing more on the rgem and cmc. Was really hoping to nab the cmc/rgem tonight. It’s not an all hope is lost type thing but it’s a big red flag 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Can’t say I’d be surprised if this didn’t snap back SE tonight before a creep north into game time. Those were big moves NW which could have overcompensated initially. Yes the flow looks to allow it to come N (provided the fast flow like RGEM has doesn’t verify), but those were big moves over the course of 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Was really hoping to nab the cmc/rgem tonight. It’s not an all hope is lost type thing but it’s a big red flag Agreed, but the evolution is quite a bit different for it being so close in the near term. One model is going to be right vs the other here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: What's a more realistic scenario between the two? I'm more prone to trust the NAM--honestly--but of course it's not like the RGEM is never reliable. I would think more amplified in this setup but the NAM's did trend less at 0z no denying that and the RGEM was pretty flat. Just a lot less amplified with the wave. The flow can be conducive but if the wave is a weak strung out POS it wont matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Was really hoping to nab the cmc/rgem tonight. It’s not an all hope is lost type thing but it’s a big red flag Twelve hours ago there were no flags to plant so one step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I would think more amplified in this setup but the NAM's did trend less at 0z no denying that and the RGEM was pretty flat. Just a lot less amplified with the wave. The flow can be conducive but if the wave is a weak strung out POS it wont matter. Yeah classic thread the needle indeed. Definitely gonna be tough to pull off so I'd be happy with any accumulating snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 ICON looks slightly more amplified then 18z through 46 hours fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: ICON looks slightly more amplified then 18z through 46 hours fwiw. I have it out, it looks like NAM to a degree with that heavy stripe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The RGEM can eat it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 icon about to deliver a beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I have it out, it looks like NAM to a degree with that heavy stripe Looks like 0.6" QPF at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I'll tell you...Easton, MD is looking like a prime spot for this one right now. That and Kent and Arrows area in Queen Anne's. I really hope @CAPE gets crushed someway, somehow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Feels weird posting the icon, but.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 ICON has the next wave further east this run. It seems to not allow the sw to amplify as much when it gets to our latitude. A step back from it's 18z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I have it out, it looks like NAM to a degree with that heavy stripe ICON was slightly more amplified...and exact same track until it got to the outer banks...and it looked about to be a better run....but then 18z the low took a more N jog from there and this run it went northeast and out despite the fact it was several MB more amplified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Negnao said: icon about to deliver a beat down It looked like it there...but then the low took a NE instead of NNE track from NC and the heavy precip stayed southeast of 95. Close miss to the SE with the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: ICON was slightly more amplified...and exact same track until it got to the outer banks...and it looked about to be a better run....but then 18z the low took a more N jog from there and this run it went northeast and out despite the fact it was several MB more amplified. I almost feel like the ICON is not bad inside 48 hrs looking back on the recent storms, but outside 48 it struggles mightily and can be prone to doing weird things with the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It looked like it there...but then the low took a NE instead of NNE track from NC and the heavy precip stayed southeast of 95. Close miss to the SE with the heavy snow. Agreed. Looked good early but followed the trend of the rest of the 0z suite unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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