February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My forecasts of problems around and within 15-20 miles of DC stemmed from this analog method

NEVER since 1975 has my station nor DCA EVER received 4” of more of snow when the daytime temperatures before the even have hit or exceeded 48F. Such an air mass has never supported that amount of snow. A few (3/4) had instances where a cold front moved thru after the 48 was hit or exceeded but that was Not the case in this situation 

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

[CAPE]

Light snow here now and 33. Looks about done for accumulations.

Very enjoyable event. It was difficult to get additional accumulation after noon. Still managed 3.8" total.

Too bad it wasn't a few degrees colder. Would have easily been a 6"+ storm here.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Just off the top of my head Feb 22 1987 DCA had a high of 48 and that night into the following morning recorded 10.3” of snow. There was no cold front just a coastal storm. 

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

[WEATHER53]

52 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Veterans Day 87 was 63 the day before, wasn’t it?

Not talking about the day before but rather day of.  87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

that is the needle we thread here along 95.  at least we got some flakes!

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

Not sure about up here but I got 12 inches with that one. At the time  I lived 1 mile north of beltway exit 20 on the Pikesville/Owings Mills line. Started snowing just after dark and was done before sunrise. I think it was a Sunday.

[WEATHER53]

9 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Feb 87... was one

That’s a good spot and the only one that I too could remember . There are a few exceptions to the 48 day of rule and all qualified that a cold front did push thru after the 48+ and before onset. That did not happen yesterday and the airmass could not support significant snow around DC proper. Silver Spring Alexandria and Rockville arent Clarksburg . Again good spot on 1987 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

Yes up here got like 16-20" in like 8 hours...would have loved that storm.  BTW @WEATHER53 might want to check out March 4 2015 also.  Unless my memory is wrong it was in the 50's and the next morning DCA got like 4.8" of snow.   It was also in the 50's before the storm in 2018 started and I think DCA got over 4" barely in that one too.  November 10th 1987 was 59 degrees as that storm started.  I am sure there are more but those are 4 examples just off the top of my head...and considering how few 4" snowstorms there are at DCA that makes it NOT that rare a thing for something that HAS NEVER HAPPENED apparently.  CRAZY!!!

[Baltimorewx]

Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Not talking about the day before but rather day of.  87 started off around 40 at sunrise.

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

[Baltimorewx]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The coastal didn't amp up enough imo.  Yea we got some nice banding of precip riding north up the inverted trough with the NS wave in the lakes...and that is typical with a juiced up SS wave and the gulf open for business.  But the coastal took its good old time getting its act together and didnt really amplify so the banding was hit or miss and there was no surface NE flow.  That combo killed the 95 corridor.  

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the issue with this storm was we were still in the mid 40s basically as the precip was arriving overnight.

It’s called too warm of precedent air mass which is what I repeatedly referenced with much rebuke of “models say plenty cold aloft”

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Not sure about up here but I got 12 inches with that one. At the time  I lived 1 mile north of beltway exit 20 on the Pikesville/Owings Mills line. Started snowing just after dark and was done before sunrise. I think it was a Sunday.

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here.  Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more.  I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago.  Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff.   I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This ones not happening for eastern HoCo and Baltimore city. Just stuck between meso bands to our east and west. Frustrating. If it was colder we probably still would have added up 3” or so. But going to end with 0.5” unless this last hour or two drastically changes.

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

so normal then 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

that is the needle we thread here along 95.  at least we got some flakes!

unfortunately it feels like the eye of that needle is getting smaller and smaller due to you know what 

[WEATHER53]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

If you think you are disputing my overall assertions with one 34 year old example you are sadly mistaken and I wont confirm the scenario you are offering up, Stick with 6 paragraph model worship and always ignore opportunity to learn from situational outcomes. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

DCA topped BWI. I figured the 95 corridor was in a good spot for this one. But the dynamically forced band ended up over southern MD and the eastern shore and the colder temps plus mesoscale banding helped the N/W crowd. So 95 got stuck in the dead zone. Not cold enough to accumulate lighter precip and not sufficient dynamics to generate good rates to overcome ~34F temps. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0.5"? I didn't think we got even that much, lol And weren't we kinda stuck between bands last week too? (although I think that was just during the wraparound from the just a bit too far north coastal). So it goes sometimes, lol

Yeah, somewhat. It’s been a stressful climb to about 11” seasonal total lol. Hopefully Wednesday to Friday works out. 

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here.  Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more.  I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago.  Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff.   I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.  

Wow, impressive storm here. Basically 2 inches an hour from start to finish. Today could've been a mini version of it if we were a touch cooler or the snow fell at night.

[Tito]

Winding down west of Dover. Light snow temp up to 34. Looks like a lot of compacting, will go out but last measurement was about 5 inches probably a tad over. 

[WEATHER53]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That wasn't the day before.  The storm started THAT DAY...and it flipped to snow before midnight and DCA recorded a trace.  That was the day the storm started just as much, even moreso as yesterday counts for today's storm!

87 Veterans Day is what I was responding to and not Feb.

DCA hit 48 Feb 87 that day and most Obs were in mid 40’s for highs, Yesterday 50-52.

Veterans Day was low 60’s day before, then cold front and around 40 at dawn VD but cold air kept pressing in and became snow around noon . DCA and me got the same, 11”. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Absolute disaster in the Baltimore area. 

So SOME of this is bad luck.  That January storm in 2019 for instance had nothing to do with UHI or AGW.  But I also think SOME portion of this is indicative of a larger scale issue for you.  You're location has the unfortunate issue of BOTH and expanding and worsening UHI effect AND being near the Bay.  It's a pretty big double whammy.  You have no elevation to offset either.  You are always going to be a local minimum.  But add in the fact that both the UHI and AGW are getting worse...and do I need to continue.  A lot of your snow, looking at historical records, was very marginal to begin with.  What would a 6" snowstorm in the 1960s or 1980s that fell with temperatures right near 32-33 degrees be now with both the UHI getting worse independent of AGW and then AGW compounding that?  Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997.  BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees.  That was at BWI which probably runs a couple degrees colder then you.  Would that have even been a snowstorm if we repeated that exact same setup.  The QPF was marginal to overcome a warm boundary layer.  I think it was like a uniform .4-.6 across the area.  Kinda like today!  Was this a replay of that storm in todays climate?  I do think you will break out of this sooner or later.  Yes bad luck has some to do with this and even with those factors you should have had more snow the last few years then you did...but some of these issues probably aren't going away and you will always be a snowfall minimum in our region because of your geographic location.  

[aldie 22]

The closest spotter report for Sykesville i see is for 3" at 9:30 but it pounded for a few hours after. Safe to say 3.5"?

[jayyy]

17 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did 

Yep. Sure did 

[jayyy]

Actually surprised to see NNJ into the LoHud with very similar totals to us down here in carroll county. Looks like places NW of the big I-95 corridor cities that got in on that good banding and had a little help with lift ended up with around 6-7” region wide. It’s a shame snow didn’t arrive around midnight, this would easily have been 3-6+ for all.  

[Stormfly]

21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Did anybody verify winter storm warning criteria? Maybe a few north and west I guess but I feel like almost nobody did 

Marginally, yes but this was a solid WWA event IMHO.

The brine mixers will be busy this week!

[Baltimorewx]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So SOME of this is bad luck.  That January storm in 2019 for instance had nothing to do with UHI or AGW.  But I also think SOME portion of this is indicative of a larger scale issue for you.  You're location has the unfortunate issue of BOTH and expanding and worsening UHI effect AND being near the Bay.  It's a pretty big double whammy.  You have no elevation to offset either.  You are always going to be a local minimum.  But add in the fact that both the UHI and AGW are getting worse...and do I need to continue.  A lot of your snow, looking at historical records, was very marginal to begin with.  What would a 6" snowstorm in the 1960s or 1980s that fell with temperatures right near 32-33 degrees be now with both the UHI getting worse independent of AGW and then AGW compounding that?  Even the 1990s...think about that one good snowstorm we had in 1997.  BWI recorded 5.8" but the high that day was 38 and the low was 30 and if I recall most of the snow fell with temps right around 32 degrees.  That was at BWI which probably runs a couple degrees colder then you.  Would that have even been a snowstorm if we repeated that exact same setup.  The QPF was marginal to overcome a warm boundary layer.  I think it was like a uniform .4-.6 across the area.  Kinda like today!  Was this a replay of that storm in todays climate?  I do think you will break out of this sooner or later.  Yes bad luck has some to do with this and even with those factors you should have had more snow the last few years then you did...but some of these issues probably aren't going away and you will always be a snowfall minimum in our region because of your geographic location.  

Agree with all. Global warming won’t make it easier. I’ll have a more productive post once I get sober. Maybe.