dman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, jayyy said: Chillll my dude. Returns literally just hit your area. It’ll be precipitating within the hour. Yes, climo says you won’t fair as well as Baltimore, but a decent # of models show some good snow into your area. enjoy. Lived here 35 years and well acquainted with this climo--my disappointment comment was wrt the future cast for mostly rain vs. the 3-6 forecast and WSW. It seems like it's been a tough year for forecasting. We might sneak in a couple inches here, we'll see, all good if we do, if we don't it will be a typical outcome for here. Looks like some more and maybe better chances later in the month too. Good luck. Temp now 43.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 2 things... aren’t areas to your SW higher elevation? They typically flip before you if I’m not mistaken. We don’t have that type of climo here further up north. Also... this radar is pretty spot on it appears. If you don’t flip to snow within 30 mins, I’d be shocked. You’re literally in a rain bubble. My buddy in Hollins right outside Roanoke city limits is seeing heavy snow It finally flipped to predominantly snow but it still doesn’t want to get its act together just yet. I’m by the S in Salem banked up against a mountain. Got about 1300ft of elevation over here. Seeing that ridiculous band over by Nashville makes me feel better and the fact of what you alluded to with the radar more or less congealing to my southwest. I just hope the temps cooperate up your way and to my north. Probably wasted .15-.20 qpf already. Temp all the way down to 34.3 from 39.9 just a couple hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 41.7/29.3. Not great. 43/29 DCA 43/25 IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Don’t think westward extend of the precip will be a problem for our area. Precip spans from Ohio to the Atlantic Ocean and heading NNE. Looks like a nice wall of precip is headed our way. Nice batch of precip out west in WV. Now we hope for that magic to happen at 700mb as that SLP cranks up and passes our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Snow creeping up on front royal and Winchester. Snow showers being reported in Romney WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3k NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mordecai said: 3k NAM LOL! 1” in central MD. Crazy. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that doesn’t verify. It does put a nice pink blob over my house though. Could be signaling 95 will be caught between bands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Initial p-type and OBS indicate places north of I-70 will start as snow. Downtown Baltimore should briefly begin as rain before the changeover. DC may need a few hours, however. Much warmer there than BAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Initial p-type and OBS indicate places north of I-70 will start as snow. Downtown Baltimore should briefly begin as rain before the changeover. DC may need a few hours, however. Much warmer there than BAL I'm in NW DC. It 39 here. It's 39 in BAL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm in NW DC. It 39 here. It's 39 in BAL. Nice! You guys are down to 39? Someone reported 45 around 1 am. Great to hear temps are dropping quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: Nice! You guys are down to 39? Someone reported 45 around 1 am. Great to hear temps are dropping quickly. Pazzo is in downtown hell. It's probably 72 there now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Pazzo is in downtown hell. It's probably 72 there now. You’re right. Fall line actually isn’t far very NW of either metro. Baltimore appears like it could flip over ever so slightly earlier but not by much once DC gets in on that heavy precip in VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Pazzo is in downtown hell. It's probably 72 there now. Not as good as 69 but not terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 37.6/32.0, NE Baltimore City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Temp drop didn't help...looks like light rain started..hopefully don't waste more than an hour with this. Shame too, nice heavy echo S and SW of me incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Being west of the fall line hasn’t helped here. Rain started. 37. Let’s see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Being west of the fall line hasn’t helped here. Rain started. 37. Let’s see what happens. Models showed this happening, but it still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Models showed this happening, but it still sucks. At least it’s washing away the brine. Take that VDOT! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 More wet than white in Charlottesville. If there has been a flake I’ve missed it. Not looking good for the WSW, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Rain here in Germantown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Rain 38/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Rain and 36 NW of Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The race between heavy precip and the column cooling has commenced. All snow reports literally JUST to my W and N so I expect this mix nonsense to be a thing of the past shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Rain and 36 NW of Fredericksburg I see a WWA downgrade in my future. Yours too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Rain and 38 in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md0063.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Imma wait to see if the experts above are right before I pack it in. Other than that and models showing this exact thing happening (rain first), I dunno...maybe we shouldn't be so pessimistic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 SLP taking it’s sweet time getting it’s act together off the SC coast. Actually looks a bit more strung out than it did an hour or two ago on SPC meso analysis. Still at 1008 mb. Two areas of increased lift emerging just off the coasts of OCMD and OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Imma wait to see if the experts above are right before I pack it in. Other than that and models showing this exact thing happening (rain first), I dunno...maybe we shouldn't be so pessimistic? For sure. No model had all snow for dc / Baltimore - especially to start. However, it did have the changeover happen rather quickly, so it’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds in the next hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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