Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. Its developing for sure. I am REALLY pulling for you all in the Mid Atlantic to get smashed up by heavy snow from this. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hope the NAMs didn’t head fake us again It's weird - I thought it might be an initialization issue, but the HiResW ARW2 (NSSL-WRF) is also initialized from the NAM, and it has one third of the NAM nest precip for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'd love 1" of snow. mood flakes or a cartopper would be disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: HRRR is finally improving and I mean slowly Some > none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hope this helps your thoughts up there, moderate/heavy sleet in Pinehurst, NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33/26 at 11:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 37/25 cloudy Herndon Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Very good temp/dewpoint spreads. Precip down south/southwest is developing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Jebman said: Very good temp/dewpoint spreads. Precip down south/southwest is developing. Gonna Jeb tomorrow in your honor sir. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I hope this thing overperforms so much! I want you guys to get snowed in so bad, its not even funny! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 30/23 Rain, shmain... all snow event coming right up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Balmy 41/28 in Charm City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 41 degrees in West Springfield. Sterling radar is back up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 42/26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Can’t do that yet since the precip is breaking out now. By the time those observations come in its practically going to be time to see where the banding sets up. You’re making too much from it. There is a slightly more expensive precip shield down south then modeled but I didn’t say that’s definitely a sign this is going to be better. Just made the observation and said it could be a good thing. You're passing your interpretation off as an objective observation. I think it's subjective. To me the precipitation shield is not definitively more expansive than modeled. In truth it's really hard to say for sure without a denser network of rain gauges. I'm hoping for an expansive precip. shield and as much snow as possible. But I also don't want to build false expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, MDRandy said: Balmy 41/28 in Charm City Crazy. It’s 6 degrees colder in east HoCo (south of 70) and 8+ degrees colder up north (Carroll, north Baltimore, Frederick counties) . What a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38/31 Sparrows Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/32 precip just started down in ROA. Predominantly rain with some mangled flakes mixed in. Radar off to my southwest looks juicy. Awaiting better rates. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38/27. Dewpoint has been holding steady or even dropping a bit as temp has dropped a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38 here in Chevy chase. Pounding ice cream and obsessing over the radar like a spurned teen girl plotting to get her ex back. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: You're passing your interpretation off as an objective observation. I think it's subjective. To me the precipitation shield is not definitively more expansive than modeled. In truth it's really hard to say for sure without a denser network of rain gauges. I'm hoping for an expansive precip. shield and as much snow as possible. But I also don't want to build false expectations. I wasn’t comparing radar to ground qpf. I was comparing modeled radar to actual radar. It was more expensive at 3z. That’s not subjective. Then you said that you prefer to use upper level ROAB and ground qpf reports then when I explained why that’s not really feasible in real time here you moved the goal posts. You can argue radar comps don’t matter. They aren’t the best but with a newly blossoming area of precip it’s the best you can do until you get ground reports but by then we will pretty much know in this case. But there was a more expansive precip field in the TN valley at 3z then any simulated one on the guidance I checked. Not sure why you want to die on this hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: Crazy. It’s 6 degrees colder in east HoCo (south of 70) and 8+ degrees colder up north (Carroll, north Baltimore, Frederick counties) . What a difference. Yes sir. NW Baltimore (Mt Washington) is reporting 33; I'm SE (Canton) at 41. Downtown is 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Better look out around Feb 16 in the Mid Atlantic! That super frigid airmass will end interacting with a storm and will probably hurl back immense, immense amounts of snow! This is going to be a FUN February for the entire Washington Metropolitan Region! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 41 degrees in West Springfield. Sterling radar is back up...Thanks! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 43 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I'd love 1" of snow. mood flakes or a cartopper would be disappointing. We are getting 2-4. If I am wrong I will cheer for Tom Brady's annoying ass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Is this moving slower then models were saying? I swear it was showing snow at the PA MD line around 1 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ruin said: Is this moving slower then models were saying? I swear it was showing snow at the PA MD line around 1 am A couple days ago maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Better look out around Feb 16 in the Mid Atlantic! That super frigid airmass will end interacting with a storm and will probably hurl back immense, immense amounts of snow! This is going to be a FUN February for the entire Washington Metropolitan Region! the whole artic airmass being pushed back for 3 days in a row is annoying. it reminds me of last year when they kept saying artic airmass polar vortex to hit east coast next week. It never even happened. I think after the second week of jan we didnt hit below 32 for a high all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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