Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, snowfan said: DC at 11z tmrw am. As others have been saying all day, super thin warm layer at surface. This is all about rates. Everybody here knows it’s about rates. The issue is every single model has decreased the rates in the last 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Don’t look at the latest HRRR then Wow you ain’t kidding. Now that’s a Ji worthy disaster run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In reality this has always been a 2-4 event for us. That was clear on Thursday. And I am fine with it. Based of latest trends even 2" might be a stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Based of latest trends even 2" might be a stretch My bar is 2”, need a stats ladder. 2.5 makes 20 on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: That was the opposite of diamond hands lol... I am not a gambler, unless having a 401k counts. Guess I should have googled that one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 @Bob Chill I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z. One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now. We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wow you ain’t kidding. Now that’s a Ji worthy disaster run. It will look different in less than an hour. Might be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It will look different in less than an hour. Might be worse. For DC it can’t get worse. It showed nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 39/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: My bar is 2”, need a stats ladder. 2.5 makes 20 on the season I should have clarified that I was talking about our area (Winchester). You should be in a better spot in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 38.3/16.2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will look different in less than an hour. Might be worse. What run are you guys referring to? 23z was better than 22z out here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just look at the radar. That’s a ton of moisture aimed right at us. Temps are going down pretty well and dews are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What run are you guys referring to? 23z was better than 22z out here anyway 23z is 1” or less for most people here. A few like you maybe score 1-2”. 22z at least had a more uniform 1-2” for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: 23z is 1” or less for most people here. A few like you maybe score 1-2”. 22z at least had a more uniform 1-2” for most of us Gotcha. I was just going off precip and it didn’t look all that different to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: Just look at the radar. That’s a ton of moisture aimed right at us. Temps are going down pretty well and dews are good. I'm going to have to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What run are you guys referring to? 23z was better than 22z out here anyway lol no idea. I don't pay much attention the the HRRR ever. What good is a hi res rapid update model that shows something different almost every run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Just look at the radar. That’s a ton of moisture aimed right at us. Temps are going down pretty well and dews are good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Gotcha. I was just going off precip and it didn’t look all that different to me Yeah it’s splitting hairs because neither run was particularly good, but in general for most of us, it trended even worse. It’s the HRRR so who knows if it’s right but still don’t like the fact that for the most part everything has trended drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 #juicy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What run are you guys referring to? 23z was better than 22z out here anyway It had a little band aided by upslope that rode up the blue ridge. But look what happened east of you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 42/25 Just wanna see some snow when I wake up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z. One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now. We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33/26 in Round Hill. Expecting 2-3” here as my final call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Watching Reed trimmer in SC with heavy snow! Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Good thing LWX and AKQ radars are down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z. One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now. We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime? We’re paying the price for 2010 to 2016. We’ve had periods when everything trended our way more then it should have. Remember all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that looked like nothing 72 hours out and we got 6”+ of snow. It’s just been not our luck lately. It will turn around. My guess very soon. First let’s not totally give up on tomorrow. Weirder things have happened. Maybe this pulls one of those NW bands no guidance picks up on. But the pattern ahead will be very difficult not to score in. We will have LOTS of chances. If somehow we fail every time we need to figure out who in here drank Jobu’s rum right quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re paying the price for 2010 to 2016. We’ve had periods when everything trended our way more then it should have. Remember all those waves in 2014 and 2015 that looked like nothing 72 hours out and we got 6”+ of snow. It’s just been not our luck lately. It will turn around. My guess very soon. First let’s not totally give up on tomorrow. Weirder things have happened. Maybe this pulls one of those NW bands no guidance picks up on. But the pattern ahead will be very difficult not to score in. We will have LOTS of chances. If somehow we fail every time we need to figure out who in here drank Jobu’s rum right quick. 38.5/15.1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Final call map below Made significant changes based on latest trends in guidance. Hopefully they revert back a bit and screw over my map. Still a nice storm for some. The metros may never accumulate one inch due to UHI hell. Don't feel like writing a synopsis this evening. I'm tired and have a few things to do tonight. I'll check in after the 00z NAM runs and the HREF starts populating. Probably want to post this in the right thread 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=2035]Bob Chill[/mention] I’m not predicting this...I’ve been expecting it to juice up at the last minute all along so might as well ride that to the end. But while we keep playing the “well at least it’s gonna snow” game everytime things degrade a little more and a little more each run the last 24 hours....we really are only one more deamplification trend from this being close to a non event. Frankly one more trend exactly the same as the one from 12z to 18z and I probably don’t get much precip at all so my colder temps don’t help. 95 went from like .6-.75 across guidance 12z to .3-.5 18z. One more adjustment to like .25-.3 and suddenly you’re talking mostly non accumulating rain snow mix. Even though I don’t think it comes to that...I also think because about 24 hours ago things looked so great and we had so much leeway to at least get a decent snow and it’s been a slow gradual bleed each run...that people don’t realize a complete fail isn’t impossible now. We’re trending too close for comfort. Latest HRRR spit out the total fail scenario. Is there a reason every storm since 2016 with the exception of 2019 has trended the wrong way for us right before gametime? I actually agree. I wouldn’t care if it was just 2”. I’d just like for models in unison to get better as we approach game time. It adds excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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