Yeoman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement the ow confidence malarkey needs to go. I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like sweet sour . You think it is low probability? Thats not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 37 here currently. Still have plenty of snow from the last storm. Took this coming down the mountain earlier. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 47/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Fair skies and 43/19 off a high of 46. SW winds at 9. Snow depth down to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Mets in Central VA have no idea what this storm is going to do, DT has been hedging is first call. This one may surprise some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Warm/not warm lets see how far things cool off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 48F radar showing some precip. I’ll see how much it drops with evap cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 42.4/15.4 Anything tomorrow is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: If you have a chance and get some snow tomorrow, post some pics...always enjoy seeing your work. Currently 49/22, clouds moving in. Thanks! I'll try, I will be working tomorrow but maybe can get some pics in too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FCPS just caved. How are 5pm surface temps compared to forecast? I can’t see this sticking on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Quote Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 458 PM EST Sat Feb 06 2021 Valid 00Z Sun Feb 07 2021 - 00Z Wed Feb 10 2021 ...Southern and Central Appalachians to the Northeast... Day 1... A southern stream shortwave moving across the Tennessee valley overnight, before lifting northeast along the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast coasts on Sunday, is expected to produce a fast-moving storm, with winter weather impacts from the southern Appalachians to New England. Initial winter weather impacts will begin this evening and continue overnight across the Cumberland Plateau into the southern and central Appalachians. Areas impacted by the heaviest snow accumulations are expected to include the Blue Ridge and southern Allegheny mountains, where localized amounts of 4-inches or more are likely. Overnight, as a surface low begins to develop along the Carolina coast, snow will likely begin to spread northeastward across the Piedmont into the Virginia and Maryland I-95 corridor. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty as to how far southeast accumulating snows will reach into southeastern Virginia, however an inch or more does look likely as far south as the Richmond metro. Heavier accumulations are more certain farther to the north, especially from northeastern Maryland to southern New York and southern New England. While the NAM is along the western edge of the guidance and is probably showing its typical bias of being too far north and west with its heavier amounts, the overall consensus of the guidance does show the potential for banded, heavier precipitation developing, that is supported by low-to-mid level frontogenesis and strong upper forcing on the northwest side of the low. This is most evident as the low moves southeast of Long Island and southeastern New England during the day on Sunday and is reflected in the higher probabilities for accumulations of 6-inches or more centered across Connecticut, Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts and far southern New Hampshire. Unlike the previous system, this storm is expected to move quickly to the northeast, tracking east of Nova Scotia Sunday night. This will brush the northern New England coast with at least a few inches of snow, with heavier amounts more likely across Down East Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, Yeoman said: NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later.. Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it. I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Swiscaster said: FCPS just caved. How are 5pm surface temps compared to forecast? I can’t see this sticking on the roads. The main reason it wont stick to the roads is because weenies have been huffin and puffin and pantin all day. All that hot air has to be accounted for somewhere. Aint nothin free in wx. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it. I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh I’ll take that bet. I am 100% sure the sun will rise, set, and Ji will make a terrible post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Gotta post the herderps. Lookin a lil better over here. probably good for 2-3" ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 LOL I wondered why there were no gfs posts. I know why now. Geez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 43/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL I wondered why there were no gfs posts. I know why now. Geez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 49/23. I picked a good day to not read this thread apparently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL I wondered why there were no gfs posts. I know why now. Geez Euro is all we have left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It'll be interesting to see how long it takes to flip from a r/s mix to all snow once precip arrives. Is there a chance we start as all snow? Seems like most models have areas around and S/E of 95 getting close to .1" of precip before we flip to snow completely. A quicker flip would be a good sign for accumulation imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Euro is all we have left. NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL I wondered why there were no gfs posts. I know why now. Geez +0.5" so I will go with the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm really liking the latest model suites. Encouraged to see the move SE at the last minute. Give me the NAM, jackpot over calvert county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looking at current radar some nice yellows building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Awilson said: Looking at current radar some nice yellows building Radar would make you believe a major storm is coming. Kinda baffling the models are showing what they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I’m at the Mount in Emmitsburg to drop my son off at school - there is about 2-3” in snowcover remaining in spots that didn’t get much sun.... but also none in spots that do. Wild. Nearly 30” gone in 5’ish days. Going to be great to get another fresh coating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lotteries are 50/50 anyway. You either win or you dont. Just like 12" tomorrow is 50/50. Math is only as complicated as you make it. I'm 100% sure nobody on this planet knows exactly how tomorrow goes. THAT is confidence I can stand behind. This stuff isnt hard people. Sheesh lol had a very similar convo with a fam member a few weeks ago and he was pretty convinced that everything is a 50/50 chance. unfortunately, not how it works, though we certainly have a 50% chance that it will "attempt" to snow, just like how i have a 50% chance of "trying" to jump over the moon. back to obs...just hiked a patapsco trail with my cousin and it certainly feels cold enough to snow. actually, we were both commenting how it was a little bit chillier than we expected. nam 12k didn't look too bad. the lesser qpf might be correlated with the speed of the storm, so i could see how it might still put down some rates for a couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 38/24, nice sunset. Concerned I'm too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: lol had a very similar convo with a fam member a few weeks ago and he was pretty convinced that everything is a 50/50 chance. unfortunately, not how it works, though we certainly have a 50% chance that it will "attempt" to snow, just like how i have a 50% chance of "trying" to jump over the moon. back to obs...just hiked a patapsco trail with my cousin and it certainly feels cold enough to snow. actually, we were both commenting how it was a little bit chillier than we expected. nam 12k didn't look too bad. the lesser qpf might be correlated with the speed of the storm, so i could see how it might still put down some rates for a couple hours. Think you guys are prime for 3-5 from Montgomery to Howard to Baltimore counties. I agree - current OBS look better (Temps & radar) than models depicted at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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