February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

There's never a situation where the 12KM NAM can outscore the 3KM NAM with mesoscale features.

I'll add that the 12K isn't any better, but it provides better overall guidance IMO. We'll see tomorrow whether we get less than .5 around here or not. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I'll add that the 12K isn't any better, but it provides better overall guidance IMO. We'll see tomorrow whether we get less than .5 around here or not. 

I don't want to post it, but the snowfall maps from the two NAM runs on tropicaltidbits are actually quite similar.  There's something way off about Weatherbell snow maps. They're the worst.

[MillvilleWx]

I will absolutely be making an update to my map after glossing over things. It's apparent that the 5H depiction has lost its luster with the orientation is flatter and not as negative of a tilt. Without persistent, strong forcing, this will be more of a WWA event than anything else given the boundary layer temps. Someone can still sneak 6" out of the this, but the writing is on the wall for unlikely widespread WSW event. Having said that, it's not completely done by any means as we've seen crazier things happen with banding and these types of setups. Snow is snow, and it's better than nothing. I'll have a full update later this evening. 

[Bob Chill]

How come nobody is looking at soundings on the nams? If you did you'd realize that the only temp prob is right at the surface when it counts. It's cold right off the deck on up. Not just a little cold either. Mid levels look great. Column is in good shape. It's usually not when the surface is dicey. Does anybody look at soundings anymore?

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

This is getting uneventful if you wanted the exciting fast and furious snow. That’s for sure. Keep expectations in check. Thought we might amp further as well but can’t win em all. We’ll see what the ground truth is, Radar looks okay. 

It’s not like we won’t get snow. I’m not canceling the event. But I guess I let myself get excited when yesterday the NAMs as well as the ICON, UK, and Euro (and all others were trending that way) were showing a dynamic amplified system with some really awesome banding potential. And when these kinds of waves start to trend more amplified it’s rare they suddenly fizzle. Typically that trend carries through the final 24 hours. So I am genuinely disappointed that guidance has since pulled the rug out on that more dynamic memorable scenario and reverted to a weaker more progressive wave. Still going to snow. A lot of people will still be very happy. Don’t let my disappointment at the high end being pulled off the table effect your enjoyment of a snowfall. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How come nobody is looking at soundings on the nams? If you did you'd realize that the only temp prob is right at the surface when it counts. It's cold right off the deck on up. Not just a little cold either. Mid levels look great. Column is in good shape. It's usually not when the surface is dicey. Does anybody look at soundings anymore?

Apparently not. I give up though. Most seem to like to glean from the wonky p-type maps and clown snow maps. So whateva.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

How come nobody is looking at soundings on the nams? If you did you'd realize that the only temp prob is right at the surface when it counts. It's cold right off the deck on up. Not just a little cold either. Mid levels look great. Column is in good shape. It's usually not when the surface is dicey. Does anybody look at soundings anymore?

This looks problematic to me.

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This looks problematic to me.

 

 

Sure, if dew points were high and evap cooling already took place. Neither of those apply to the cherry picked panels you posted. I get it. You want it to rain. And it might for a little while before the flip. Make sure you set your alarm to catch the rain before it's gone

[benjammin]

Just dont lose sight that earlier this week there was no storm and now there is one. That's the most important trend because without it, discussing totals is as productive as the majority of washington football team's first round draft picks 

Except for Young, Sweat, Payne, and Allen. Now Haskins...

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[Weather Will]

I will gladly take 2- 4 inches as an appetizer for the beginning of what looks to be an active 10 day period...

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji clearly has his twin troll now...coincidentally they both post at Jay's wintry mix

When a run looks good I’ll weenie out with the rest of you. When things are trending better I am right there celebrating. But I’m not one of the people that does the “let’s lower the bar and pretend there isn’t a bad trend happening and how dare someone point out that said model got worse 4 runs in a row” type person either.  Maybe this amps up at the last minute. I expected it too. I see no reason this gets shunted south. But it’s not a positive sign that EVERY guidance we have has trended dryer and more anemic the last 24 hours.  Frankly I don’t understand the “don’t say negative stuff” mentality. Ignoring bad trends and warning signs doesn’t make them not real it just sets you up to be disappointed. 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When a run looks good I’ll weenie out with the rest of you. When things are trending better I am right there celebrating. But I’m not one of the people that does the “let’s lower the bar and pretend there isn’t a bad trend happening and how dare someone point out that said model got worse 4 runs in a row” type person either.  Maybe this amps up at the last minute. I expected it too. I see no reason this gets shunted south. But it’s not a positive sign that EVERY guidance we have has trended dryer and more anemic the last 24 hours.  Frankly I don’t understand the “don’t say negative stuff” mentality. Ignoring bad trends and warning signs doesn’t make them not real it just sets you up to be disappointed. 

To me it's not that you say it or point it out it's that you tend to drive your point home until it's dead and buried. Could just be me though...I don't get too high or low but I do get annoyed...just my opinion anyway I still respect and appreciate your knowledge. 

[T. August]

18z ICON drier and a bit SE. It’s like .1 wetter for 95 but in general more dry for NW areas. The area of the heaviest precip moved a bit SE.

18z Rgem throws some more precip more NW compared to 12z

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

NWS updated

The air aloft is cold enough to support snow, and despite the
warm conditions this afternoon, there should be enough dry air
for wetbulb cooling to take place, causing any rain or rain/snow
mix at the onset to change to snow for most areas. Even still,
temperatures will be marginal at the surface near to perhaps
even a degree or two above freezing across the metro areas and
southern MD, to perhaps near or a degree/two below freezing near
the Mason-Dixon Line and the higher elevations. Also, with the
warm conditions leading up to the event, that will affect the
SLR`s as well. Therefore, the accumulating snow will be
dependent on the heavier snowfall rates, which are possible
given the stronger frontogenetical forcing that is showing up in
much of the guidance. The banding snow may overtake the marginal
temperatures for a period Sunday morning, causing the snow to
accumulate. Have continued with the Winter Storm Warnings for
the Metro areas as well as northern and central Virginia, and
central Maryland. These areas have the best chance for heavier
precipitation with temps close enough to freezing for 3-6" most
likely. Farther west across the northern Shenandoah Valley into
the Potomac and Allegheny Highlands, Winter Weather Advisories
are up for 2-4" of snow most likely. Temperatures will be colder
leading to higher SLR`s, but the better chance for heavier
snowfall rates will be to the east. Across southern MD, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect. Despite the heaviest
precipitation rates across this area, temps will be a little
warmer causing snow to mix with rain at times.

The confidence in the forecast is lower than it would typically
be because, the snowfall accumulation will be dependent on
exactly where the heavier bands of snow setup since temps are
marginal.

Precipitation will move out of the area Sunday afternoon and
most areas will rise well above freezing, causing any snow that
does stick to melt. The one exception will be along the ridges
of the Allegheny Highlands.

I’m having a hard time reading this small font

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

To me it's not that you say it or point it out it's that you tend to drive your point home until it's dead and buried. Could just be me though...I don't get too high or low but I do get annoyed...just my opinion anyway I still respect and appreciate your knowledge. 

Fair enough. I have some mild OCD (legit not joking) so that’s very likely.  Radar looks better then guidance att.  We can always play that game lol. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 Radar looks better then guidance att.  We can always play that game lol. 

Now were talkin! Boom

[IUsedToHateCold]

If anything this is right where we want it. They do tend to come in more amped and NW than progged. But who knows. 

[WxUSAF]

Cloudy. 46/24.

[ILIKERAKE]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I grew up by Archbishop Curley HS in ne Baltimore at like 50 ' elevation.  I lived the disappointments  through age 14 . 83', 87' helped a bit though . I even have a couple vivid 79' memories of my dads huge home built snow tunnels for me and my bro.

Ayeee i went to school at Curley.. Home of the Friars 

[SLPressure]

Cloudy 50/28

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m having a hard time reading this small font

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement 

the ow confidence malarkey needs to go.  I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence

Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like  sweet sour . You think it is low probability?  Thats  not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast  without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. 

 

[Awilson]

Will there be a obs thread or are we just keeping this thread hot 

[Awilson]

46 and cloudy here in da burnie 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Awilson said:

Will there be a obs thread or are we just keeping this thread hot 

Think obs go in here. 

49/26 in College Park. 

[Awilson]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Think obs go in here. 

Cool

[ThePhotoGuy]

46 degrees. Feels like a snowstorm.

I was surprised SHA didn't brine Route 50 & Ritchie Highway today. 

[North Balti Zen]

45/22 here in northwest balt city. 

[Awilson]

Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

46 degrees. Feels like a snowstorm.

I was surprised SHA didn't brine Route 50 & Ritchie Highway today. 

There was one just now on Ritchie… Like 2 nozzles working lol 

[vastateofmind]

Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

46 degrees. Feels like a snowstorm.

I was surprised SHA didn't brine Route 50 & Ritchie Highway today. 

If you have a chance and get some snow tomorrow, post some pics...always enjoy seeing your work.

Currently 49/22, clouds moving in.

[jayyy]

At this point, comparing current OBS to models is definitely the best tool we have to get an idea of how this will go and is much more productive than the live and die by each kuchera snow map approach some take. 
 

Know your climo folks! If you live on the water, you’re probably not seeing more snow than PSU or mappy in a marginal storm. That’s just.... the reality we live in here in our CWA