BristowWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Wow. Just brutal. I know we say it all the time but that could still tick NW even this close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 CWG must've seen that overnight shift coming. If it continues today, their forecast may be spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 FWIW, 06z HRDPS has a big NW shift from its 00z run 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: which results in below re snow accum changes on the 06z RGEM compared to the 00z RGEM Pretty significant shift in the end game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Well the overall theme with the exception of the gfs is a tick NW and some like this model a big tick NW the 12z Nam will be telling. We are just about game time down 2 with 24 seconds left and Doc Rivers calls time out and asks if Embiid is okay to go back in for one more play with his stiff back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Pretty significant shift in the end game Actually it’s right in its range imo so should start looking like the rest of guidance. I wouldn’t use NAM or rgem outside 36-48 hours and honestly 9.99/10 go with the EPS for the snow axis and the mesos inside 24 hours for last second adjustments. that being said I was personally very happy To see rgem shift like that. Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Rvarookie said: Sounds like start time is same as last week for me so just hoping for a repeat over here. Just give me enough to take the kids sledding and I’m good same! We have found a couple of really great spots over the last couple of years and sledding has become a tradition for us. 4-6 is enough so you generally don't get dirt or grass showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 53 minutes ago, Steve25 said: CWG must've seen that overnight shift coming. If it continues today, their forecast may be spot on. The overnight shift of the euro seems to be a favorable one... and here is the 12Z from yesterday: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interesting. The WSW are from 3am to noon. That is rapid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This'll work (3k NAM sounding in heaviest band tomorrow morning) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2021020606&fh=30&lat=39.24&lon=-76.90&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Montgomery/Howard jackpot on Euro 6z . Back to normal NOW WE'RE TALKING 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Montgomery/Howard jackpot on Euro 6z . Back to normal Anyone have 6z Euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: The overnight shift of the euro seems to be a favorable one... and here is the 12Z from yesterday: To me that’s not a shift. Looks like the euro just has a wetter storm than it’s prior run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6z Euro 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I sacrificed some qpf for the cause The track isn't any different- probs a tick SE- but the precip distribution is, a slight expansion westward of the heavy qpf. Robs my yard of a bit and gives more to places just SE. Overall not much difference from 0z. 4-6" verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Total qpf. Let’s trend the right way today! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If everyone in our region scores 4”-6” of heavy snow in 8 hours, that will be huge 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This has all the feeling of a normal even that jogs 30-50mi NW of guidance right at onset and smokes parrs ridge area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 With that being said, there's still enough guidance that would stand to say their 1-3 inch prediction is too low, but they seem to be sticking to it. I'm assuming they're concerned about temperatures/how heavy the rates will actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Total qpf. Let’s trend the right way today! Is that better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Yup . Probably noise . I think the precip field will continue to expand a bit nw too as we near . Any banding might mean the difference from 2-3" to 6" ...gametime nowcasting I think there will be banding on the NW edge of the good precip shield- pretty typical. Euro might be hinting at that. Ofc banding in this set up may make for some happy campers, and very close by- unhappy ones. Getting stuck in an area of subsidence with prolonged light to moderate precip wont get it done with the lack of cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Some 6-8 blotches mixed in there now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is that better? You decide lol. The answer is maybe.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Seriously gfs this is a non event basically . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, nj2va said: 6z Euro Take this map and run. Harold and the purple crayon ftmfw. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Seriously gfs this is a non event basically . Is this the snow depth map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Is this the snow depth map? No it’s the 10:1 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The GFS has the .3 line basically running along I95. Not saying it’s right but that obviously won’t work well for rates and accumulation. That’s why the 10:1 map is so low, it’s a rain/snow mix because the rates are never there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I saw Yoda mention the 6z RGEM trended nw with its precip shield. After looking at it in more detail that is an absolute stone cold assassin. Banding and fgen would be crazy with some of the rates being achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I saw Yoda mention the 6z RGEM trended nw with its precip shield. After looking at it in more detail that is an absolute stone cold assassin. Banding and fgen would be crazy with some of the rates being achieved. Do you have maps of the rgm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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