Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, Ravens94 said: Looks like they solidified that 4-6” stripe. Mostly unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Icon FULL TUCK lol Geez that's pretty nw lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 46 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You got 5” on Tuesday in Germantown? That’s sick. We tacked on about 1-1.5” here. Its insane hahaha .I had a band that just sat on top of me four hours and dropped 5". I gave up after day 1 and 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 48 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I got 7.5" this past week. I doubt I beat that on this storm tomorrow night. But even 4"-6" of heavy rates beats the hell out of the salt shaker snows we had over 72 hours. Honestly, it was the most boring snow I have ever seen, except for the final band. Full agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Full tuck!!! Words we just couldn’t quite get to last weekend. Finally (I mean hopefully) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Its insane hahaha .I had a band that just sat on top of me four hours and dropped 5". I gave up after day 1 and 2. I stopped paying attention on day 3 as I was in town for work. We’re there lots of places that picked up those totals? (outside the Catoctins folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Snow to liquid ratio on the 12k NAM Kuchera is 8:1 even out here. 3k NAM is 10:1. Not buying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The track adjusted west but qpf was lower across guidance so far 0z. Partially due to the storm moving even faster. In and out too fast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I stopped paying attention on day 3 as I was in town for work. We’re there lots of places that picked up those totals? (outside the Catoctins folks) There was a snowfall map in the other thread, I can't be bothered to go searching for it, but yeah - there were other similar reports in upper MoCo and nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's a CAM, so it can exaggerate in the synoptic scale due to convective feedback concerns that stem from latent heat release and localized pressure falls. @csnavywx touched on the limitations of the higher res models in a synoptic scale setup. It's okay in the short term (<24 hrs) as it can show banding characteristics, but it's prone to larger swings in guidance, especially SLP positioning. The NSSL is the same deal, although I found it to be not as jumpy with handling the surface reflection compared to the ARW/NMM. It is AWFUL with ULL though, so anything like that, avoid at all costs. As you noted, there are 3 Hi-Res Windows: ARW, ARW2(NSSL-WRF), and NMMB (some sites still incorrectly label it as NMM). NMMB overall performs the worst and will be retired and replaced with a Hi-Res Window FV3 around May. I agree that they're just not great for winter storms - they are much better for details with severe weather and flash flooding events. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: As you noted, there are 3 Hi-Res Windows: ARW, ARW2(NSSL-WRF), and NMMB (some sites still incorrectly label it as NMM). NMMB overall performs the worst is will be retired and replaced with a Hi-Res Window FV3 around May. I agree that they're just not great for winter storms - they are much better for details with severe weather and flash flooding events. Well the NSSL is the best for me so I’m hugging it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The track adjusted west but qpf was lower across guidance so far 0z. Partially due to the storm moving even faster. In and out too fast. Got the 2-6 inch event that was spread out over 3 days. Now we get a 2-6 inch event that is in and out in 6 hours! Let's enjoy them however they come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 21 minutes ago, jayyy said: Looks like they solidified that 4-6” stripe. Mostly unchanged. It dropped south, most of AA county was lower previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'll take the 00z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 00z GFS Doesn’t seem like that good of a run to me...just not as heavy with the precipitation as the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 00z GFS Are we looking at the same thing lol? It’s like .2-.3 before rain unless I’m looking at it wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, T. August said: Are we looking at the same thing lol? It’s like .2-.3 before rain unless I’m looking at it wrong. It was a small step back from me but I'm not pinning a ton of hopes on this system. A nice 3-4" is really all I need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, T. August said: Are we looking at the same thing lol? It’s like .2-.3 before rain unless I’m looking at it wrong. It’s lighter with the overall precipitation banding so therefore temps aren’t as cold. We need the rates to overcome the marginal surface temps. GFS doesn’t do it. Doesn’t mean it’s right. But it’s the way this would go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: It’s lighter with the overall precipitation banding so therefore temps aren’t as cold. We need the rates to overcome the marginal surface temps. GFS doesn’t do it. Doesn’t mean it’s right. But it’s the way this would go wrong Shaved total qpf too by about 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'll take the 00z GFS Of course you would. You made me look and it was meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If we're really worried about the GFS, it's worth noting that 5 consecutive GFS para cycles (through 12z today; 18z has not yet updated) were wetter and snowier than the operational. There are no zoomed in graphics, but you can see the key differences pretty clearly (use the dprog/dt option): https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/realtime/gfsximages.html 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs is dry here but I'm leaning 90% on the mesos starting tomorrow 12z and Euro. I think we will find out at 12z if this will do the typical jump NW at the last minute or if 0z was a warning for our area. I tend to think this adjusts north some tomorrow but the one inhibiting factor is it’s trucking so fast. If it is late amping up by just a couple hours it’s a problem when the whole system is flying by in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: If we're really worried about the GFS, it's worth noting that 5 consecutive GFS para cycles (through 12z today; 18z has not yet updated) were wetter and snowier than the operational. There are no zoomed in graphics, but you can see the key differences pretty clearly (use the dprog/dt option): https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gfsv16/realtime/gfsximages.html Not “worried” but there has been a definite slight shift southeast on guidance so far tonight. That’s not what the northwest crew from Winchester to Mappy wanted to see. But it was minor and could be noise. 6z could easily resume the NW trend we saw the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not “worried” but there has been a definite slight shift southeast on guidance so far tonight. That’s not what the northwest crew from Winchester to Mappy wanted to see. But it was minor and could be noise. 6z could easily resume the NW trend we saw the last 48 hours. If I had to guess, I'd go with it being a blip, but it sure revs up the heartburn when you see shifts in a setup with so little margin for error.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Lol RPM looks mega amped 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Toss the GFS and absolutely hug the living F out of the following: NAM/EURO/ICON/SREF/TUVWXYZREF/UKIE/CMC/PANASONIC/COLECOVISION/COMMODORE64/TEXASINSTRUMENTS/SPEAKANDSPELL.......and the CRAS. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Correct me if I’m wrong, @MillvilleWx (I really appreciate all of your insight) this storm is the perfect type to play to the biases of the GFS. It doesn’t really do well historically with quick hitting meso dependent storms that track through the far SE portion of the CWA. Feel like the NAM/RGEM etc and Mesos would be much more reliable inside 48 over an ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It was this time last week that the rug got pulled a bit and we lost the 24”. 00z run. Fri night. It’s like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with each post. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Canadian looks a bit east too. Not as heavy with precip either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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