jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Good to see Gfs follow the rest with better qpf for some nw areas. Looking better and better for us as the hours go on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: GFS is a 3-5” storm. Seems right. 3-5” as a baseline area wide is a great call. Zero shot it has any idea about meso/banding details however. @MillvilleWx and @csnavywx explained it best, but we’re going to have some big heartbreak awfully close by to the jackpot zones with this setup. 10” in one location could mean 4-5” a few miles down the road 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z ICON Those snowfall totals don’t line up with the precip amounts IMO. The last sounding I saw at DC looked cold almost all the way to the surface. I would think their nearly 1” of precip would translate to more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 CWG is the worst. A true no guts no glory forecast everytime.They said they could trend it up...or trend it down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I’m prepared to the smell the sleet to get the goods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those snowfall totals don’t line up with the precip amounts IMO. The last sounding I saw at DC looked cold almost all the way to the surface. I would think their nearly 1” of precip would translate to more snow. That’s why you don’t use those maps to make any sort of meaningful forecast prediction. They are clown maps for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: That’s why you don’t use those maps to make any sort of meaningful forecast prediction. They are clown maps for a reason. I know this already. That’s why I always ask for precip amounts. I already know I’m getting 30:1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I know this already. That’s why I always ask for precip amounts. I already know I’m getting 30:1 30:1 ratios!? Sure. Same bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: 30:1 ratios!? If it’s a wet snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If it’s a wet snow That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. 12.1 for our latitude seems reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Yes I know this LOL. You don’t get my jokes 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. I think he’s kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. You're being trolled 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I think he’s kidding. See. This guy knows me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: See. This guy knows me I’m so used to seeing your posts in here asking for the latest EPS, GEFS, etc QPF maps, I was shocked you had a joke to post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Bastards! hahaha 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s... not how that works. At all. You have that backwards. If it’s a super wet, dense snow, snowfall to QPF ratios are lower lol Cold temps + powder snow = higher ratios. Doubt we see powder. lol you’re funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: CWG is the worst. A true no guts no glory forecast everytime. Ok ... what is your forecast? I would love to hear from an expert. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: lol you’re funny Only when Richmond is disappointed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nws updated point click now 1-3 and 2-4 early Sunday am to through 1 pm (total 3-7 inches) and they knocked back the high temp to only 37 degrees now. For Owings mills /Reisterstown area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: CWG is the worst. A true no guts no glory forecast everytime. This might’ve been mostly tongue-in-cheek, but I think they’re easily the best out there in this area. Their ambiguity translates to the most honest forecasting around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jnis said: Ok ... what is your forecast? I would love to hear from an expert. Sounds like this guy wrote up CWG’s forecast and wants answers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 One heck of a banter thread we have here...(yes I realize we're between model runs). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 where is robert Frost...er..bob chill 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Fastest week ever and my weeks already go by in a blink. Nothing technical to add. Excellent job ITT for me to quick scan and go (or go to sleep) this week. I do want to sincerely thank mets @MillvilleWx @csnavywx @high risk for their outstanding posts about fronto, jet structure, and model guidance considerations when parsing thru suites among other things. I live for this stuff man. It helps build a "concept" versus verbatim surface panel output. That stuff is really important if you want to conceptualize what's going on top to bottom instead of snow map central (not knocking. I like snow maps too!). The only way you can "out think" a model is by understanding the mechanics of what's approaching and drawing your own "painting" in your head. I had a blast last weekend but it reminded me how easy it is to get sucked in to the wrong idea. One thing we're all guilty of is "maybe it's different this time" with a setup. Sometimes it is but using history as a guide for the future is powerful. In tne end, last weekend went just like I was thinking leading in. I'm pretty damn thankful to get the 6" I eeked out. Thru similar storm history it was an overperformer. Dont lose sight of that. Even if it felt blah on Sunday The upcoming event should be a blast. Radar extrapolation will work well this time. No worries about needing all kinds of crazy things to line up. We just want to be in the stripe and so far we are. I remember on mon-tues seeing the gfs keeping us in the dead space median strip while energy passed north and south at the same time. My first thought was "this never happens in reality". Memory of past events and your backyard climo is more accurate than just model output alone. 22 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: where is robert Frost...er..bob chill Typing a novel while you wondered this. I didn't like the massive dry slot over leesburg on all the models so I didnt want to bring it up. 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fastest week ever and my weeks already go by in a blink. Nothing technical to add. Excellent job ITT for me to quick scan and go (or go to sleep) this week. I do want to sincerely thank mets @MillvilleWx @csnavywx @high risk for their outstanding posts about fronto, jet structure, and model guidance considerations when parsing thru suites among other things. I live for this stuff man. It helps build a "concept" versus verbatim surface panel output. That stuff is really important if you want to conceptualize what's going on top to bottom instead of snow map central (not knocking. I like snow maps too!). The only way you can "out think" a model is by understanding the mechanics of what's approaching and drawing your own "painting" in your head. I had a blast last weekend but it reminded me how easy it is to get sucked in to the wrong idea. One thing we're all guilty of is "maybe it's different this time" with a setup. Sometimes it is but using history as a guide for the future is powerful. In tne end, last weekend went just like I was thinking leading in. I'm pretty damn thankful to get the 6" I eeked out. Thru similar storm history it was an overperformer. Dont lose sight of that. Even if it felt blah on Sunday The upcoming event should be a blast. Radar extrapolation will work well this time. No worries about needing all kinds of crazy things to line up. We just want to be in the stripe and so far we are. I remember on mon-tues seeing the gfs keeping us in the dead space median strip while energy passed north and south at the same time. My first thought was "this never happens in reality". Memory of past events and your backyard climo is more accurate than just model output alone. Thanks Bob. These are the kind of storms I know you like too. Hot and heavy, no wait, puking fatties, and perfect for that extra long dog walk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald Sutherlands Eyebrow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4-8 would be a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Donald Sutherlands Eyebrow said: 4-8 would be a nice surprise. DS eyebrow? LOL! What the $@%! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said: DS eyebrow? LOL! What the $@%! Really!! I want to hear the story behind that name! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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