Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 has anyone seen the NAM3k Temps during the height of the storm. 32-34. This has like an 80s wetsnow vibe too it @psuhoffman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We have our first mention of warnings!!! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: has anyone seen the NAM3k Temps during the height of the storm. 32-34. This has like an 80s wetsnow vibe too it @psuhoffman I love those types. Accumulates quickly on cold surfaces, gradually covers roads, it’ll be a winter wonderland hopefully and then we drip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Do either of you know whether the Kucera ratio is applied at the NCEP level or if it is something that is derived by each of the individual map providers? I know that College of Dupage has added a map of the Kucera ratio. For this storm, it is ~7:1. Definitely derived by the individual map providers. There is no SLR output from any NCEP model. In fact, the only system that even produces a true snowfall accumulation in inches is RAP/HRRR. The others all generate snow water equivalent (for which the provider applies a ratio) and snow depth (closest thing to a true accumulation, but derived from the land-sfc model). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Do either of you know whether the Kucera ratio is applied at the NCEP level or if it is something that is derived by each of the individual map providers? I know that College of Dupage has added a map of the Kucera ratio. For this storm, it is ~7:1. I'm actually not sure how they implement it. I know we don't use Kuchera out here unless we are under an ULL since our ratios are typically 7-8:1 in the valleys and Permian Basin and 10:1 in the mountains above 4k ft. I'm not a big fan of Kuchera in most setups because I believe it smooths and takes an average despite clear as day highs and lows pending mesoscale banding. I usually use QPF and then adjust based on expectations and local climo. We have a tool at our office that also generates snowfall based on certain thermo criteria and we can adjust for time frames to get a total. Great to utilize on GFE for gridded forecasts. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says? @stormtracker only listens to Gwen Tolbart 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So how far north does it come? Still 48 hours out. I say more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says? they should stop doing weather and put 24 back on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z HRW WRF-NSSL looks mighty tasty for the region. I like this model for non-complicated setups. It does a great job, and is part of the HREF (Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast) grouping. 10 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So how far north does it come? Still 48 hours out. I say more. I would take the 12z NAM verbatim. Let us flatlanders get one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, VA Mad Man said: I'd imagine NWS will hold off on issuing a WSW until after the 12Z suite? For sure. Way too much volatility with this to confidently issue until then at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So how far north does it come? Still 48 hours out. I say more. I think you and I will have quite the snowy sunday 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: I would take the 12z NAM verbatim. Let us flatlanders get one The AACO crew needs a little somethin' somethin'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Man, @Disc and @Buddy1987 will love this run. Should be a nice quick nuking down in their hoods Funny bc I’ve been busy at work this morning and just popped on to check it out but he actually tagged me in this. Meatball sized aggregates would just be pouring down. The lift and fgen on that is just dumb. Hourly rates would be worth me setting an alarm clock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: I think you and I will have quite the snowy sunday I won't forget about you again Mappy! I would tend to agree. 12z has been a good suite thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 12z HRW WRF-NSSL looks mighty tasty for the region. I like this model for non-complicated setups. It does a great job, and is part of the HREF (Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast) grouping. We're all just ignoring the 12z HRRR, right 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I won't forget about you again Mappy! I would tend to agree. 12z has been a good suite thus far. Ha, its okay. I was kidding. I've forgotten about you too before (won't do it again ) But yeah, so far so good. I'd like to see the GFS have some higher qpf totals like the NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 37 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'm confused as to why you would give a s*** about what channel 5 says? Be fair: Mike Thomas does a good job of explaining the models on social and helping the public gain knowledge. And then there's Sue Palka . Put some respek on her name. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 RGEM looks decent. A few hours of heavy snow verbatim for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: RGEM looks decent. A few hours of heavy snow verbatim for DC. Do the prev run trend for the RGEM, improving nicely and quickly increasing QPF with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 12z HRW WRF-NSSL looks mighty tasty for the region. I like this model for non-complicated setups. It does a great job, and is part of the HREF (Hi-Res Ensemble Forecast) grouping. See that band in the nw part of va into md? The icon is doing exactly that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We're all just ignoring the 12z HRRR, right We do so at our own peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS 36 looks juicy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See that band in the nw part of va into md? The icon is doing exactly that. ICON was its best run yet for us, QPF continues to increase. Slightest bit slower evolution as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See that band in the nw part of va into md? The icon is doing exactly that. Might be some orographic enhancement that coincides with the mid-level frontogen as it propagates to the north and west. There's typically a westward band that develops with southern stream disturbances as the s/w trough pivots underneath and creates a small area of enhanced upper forcing to the north. I can see that happening with this as well. There will be a lucky winner on the western fringes of this system I feel. Where is anyone's guess. I'd say your hood out to Tucker and Pocahontas Co, WV up into Alleghany Co MD will have the best chance due to topography and their positioning to the north of the s/w trough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I haven't even looked at the GFS surface panels but looking at h5 thru 42 I'd suspect it will be a decent run. More amped s/s wave and some early interaction with the N/S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 GFS is Slightly NW of 6z. Just off OBX at 45. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nice hit on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z GFS 10:1 weenie Kuchoochoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just hope the timing is the same and most of the precip is hot n heavy overnight if you want accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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