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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It looked like it there...but then the low took a NE instead of NNE track from NC and the heavy precip stayed southeast of 95.  Close miss to the SE with the heavy snow. 

Don't you think the NE turn is because the wave in the plains was faster ejecting and further east this run? 

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Don't you think the NE turn is because the wave in the plains was faster ejecting and further east this run? 

on the ICON the issue is the NS breaks off a vort from the main lobe that is pinwheeling north of the lakes and dives to about Lake Ontario which compresses the flow just enough to prevent the low from a north turn from NC.  18z that wasn't there.  The wave was actually a little better on the 0z ICON.  The NAM/ICON had a similar trend but for very different reasons.  The NAM trended better with the NS but weaker with the SS.  The ICON the other way around.  lol

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

on the ICON the issue is the NS breaks off a vort from the main lobe that is pinwheeling north of the lakes and dives to about Lake Ontario which compresses the flow just enough to prevent the low from a north turn from NC.  18z that wasn't there.  The wave was actually a little better on the 0z ICON.  The NAM/ICON had a similar trend but for very different reasons.  The NAM trended better with the NS but weaker with the SS.  The ICON the other way around.  lol

Such minor features are going to have play on this up til the very last moment. You’d assume tomorrow during the day we’d get clarity being under 36 hours from game time...

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Just now, Ji said:

so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped

It’s one suite Ji. Still a lot of reason to believe this comes N for us. The models moved hundreds of miles in 6 hours. Let’s see the next 2 cycles to really get an idea.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

so frustrating...nothing ever trends right for us like it does for everyone else north or south of us. We all thought we were getting a north/more amped trend tonight and it went south/less amped

Relax bud. If 12z tomorrow looks suppressed, we can begin to worry a bit. Think about where we were 24-36 hours ago. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

slightly less amplified SS wave.  That seems to be a trend so far at 0z.  

Still 48 to 60 hours out. Probably a good thing the north trend stopped for the moment. Don't think we are done with that.  The last storms  bullseye ended up being a couple hundred miles north of where it was 72 hours out. Every storm is different but I've seen this movie enough over the years  to know we need it slightly south 3 days out.

 

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We are roughly 60 hours out... 

correct me if I’m wrong, but 60 hours out from the previous storm, we were potentially expecting feet, not inches. Things went north rather quickly within 60. We don’t want that here. We are close. Not there yet, but things have most certainly trended in our direction. I’d rather OP runs look suppressed with an improving look upstairs conducive of a storm that can amplify / come north, than have a jackpot over our heads this far out. 
 

Be calm, my friends. We got this. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

Patiently waiting for @psuhoffman to drop the good news about the CMC’s improved look 

precip panels are out.  It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything.  Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also.  Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend.  Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z.  These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run.  If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

precip panels are out.  It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything.  Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also.  Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend.  Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z.  These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run.  If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend.  

Maybe we flatlanders can get one this year... it wouldn't be the worst thing ever for it to not be a fall line special

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Appreciate the insight, as always @psuhoffman. I’ll take a sizable trend in our direction 60 hours out and call it a win.  If this season has taught our region anything, it’s that a storm will absolutely not do what models are showing at 60. Plenty of time. Ill be worried if the cmc looks the same at 12z tomorrow 

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