mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Alright alright alright -- lets bring home a 'Superbowl' win for our backyards and add some snow to our season totals. Don't bitch, whine or complain If you see your posts disappearing, blame H20 Enjoy weenies! 4 4 6 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EPS should be fun to look at... hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Huge shift on the GEPS, FWIW 12Z: 00Z: That is a large shift NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Who ever kept saying how the NAM sniffs storms out before the others they look to be right. Banter friend, banter. Until the storm happens and we see what we get, no model is currently right or wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 We are in a perfect spot considering all modeled storms shift north a day before onset of precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It looks like the Euro brings in colder air after the storm which would make the snow stick longer and is just an interesting feature of the storm that no one is really talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EURO map without the little bit of Friday snow (thanks @high risk) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO map without the little bit of Friday snow (thanks @high risk) congrats R! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z 06z (these were actually good... did we ever discuss them?) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z 6z 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z 06z (these were actually good... did we ever discuss them?) I don't believe anyone posted the 12z eps, so thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EDIT: Includes some light snow from Friday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Track of that low pressure system will be determined by where the front/baroclinic zone ultimately ends up...hence the waffling of the guidance suppressed vs coming back north. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Track of that low pressure system will be determined by where the front/baroclinic zone ultimately ends up...hence the waffling of the guidance suppressed vs coming back north. For sure. think it’s more than just the front location though. The systems also trending in our favor because models completely fell flat on their look of the PAC and the result that would have downstream. PAC heights are +20 in comparison to what models were forecasting a few days back. The look is far Less progressive than models thought even 36 hours ago. Frontal boundary looks to be in a better spot too. im by no means honking, but a region wide 2-4” event is looking much more likely. Next 24 hours will be very telling. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, jaydreb said: See the ones with the max stripe in PA? If this amps it’s coming north. That’s my prediction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The 24 hour trend on the Eps for the mean surface low is just huge from 96 hr to 72 hours. Haven't seen a shift like that in while in short range . Yuuuuuge shift. NAM, GFS, GEFS Ukie and euro all made huge shifts in the past 24 hr. Haven’t seen models jump quite like that in a good while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: See the ones with the max stripe in PA? If this amps it’s coming north. That’s my prediction. So, if it doesn’t amp, do you predict it goes south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: So, if it doesn’t amp, do you predict it goes south? No I’m just saying that if it ends up a little sharper at h5 and maybe a little stronger at the surface it’s gonna go way north. And no, I think if you’re already too far south, you’re toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No I’m just saying that if it ends up a little sharper at h5 and maybe a little stronger at the surface it’s gonna go way north. And no, I think if you’re already too far south, you’re toast. I was just busting your chops my friend inclined to agree, think our Richmond friends are going to be disappointed come Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No I’m just saying that if it ends up a little sharper at h5 and maybe a little stronger at the surface it’s gonna go way north. And no, I think if you’re already too far south, you’re toast. I don't think this will go way north and miss us completely 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I don't think this will go way north and miss us completely Inclined to agree. Think it does have a shot at being far enough north to cause problems for east of 95. Don’t see it going much further. Think those in Richmond who are getting excited to proceed with caution. Have a feeling they’ll be disappointed come Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I was just busting your chops my friend inclined to agree, think our Richmond friends are going to be disappointed come Sunday Yeah and I’m not wishing anyone bad luck. Obviously I want as much as I can get, but this one seems like an obvious trends north the whole time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Most of our light and mod events typically pop up in the med short range. But it's been a while with such a short range shift like this I think. Hopefully it holds Exactly what I’m thinking. A last second shift to a 2-5” thump never hurt nobody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't think this will go way north and miss us completely I don’t either but I could easily see it going another 50+ miles north and that’s a long way in a straight line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z ICON finally came out on TT. Shows a nice hit for the area of about 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah and I’m not wishing anyone bad luck. Obviously I want as much as I can get, but this one seems like an obvious trends north the whole time Think a few days ago I would have disagreed. However, modes have definitely backed off the major cold and confluence in New England ahead of the system idea in a pretty significant way, allowing room for this to keep trending north - along with a better PAC look. Do think there is a ceiling for trending north however, as the trough won’t be that sharp. Don’t see this exiting the coast much north of OBX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z ICON finally came out on TT. Shows a nice hit for the area of about 2-4". Looks colder than the other models too. 31 in DC at 18z Sunday vs 37 on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Looks colder than the other models too. Typical ICON cold bias sadly. Also think ICON only shows rain/snow, not mix. I may be mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Typical ICON bias sadly. Para GFS was pretty cold too... 31 I believe at DCA during the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: I was just busting your chops my friend inclined to agree, think our Richmond friends are going to be disappointed come Sunday 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: Inclined to agree. Think it does have a shot at being far enough north to cause problems for east of 95. Don’t see it going much further. Think those in Richmond who are getting excited to proceed with caution. Have a feeling they’ll be disappointed come Sunday tell us again how you think Richmond will be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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