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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know the storm is coming when the tone of your trolling takes on an air of desperation.

Typical double-standards though. In August, posts with D10 frosts on the charts and leathery leaves isn't trolling. 5-10 likes on those at a time. I post a 15C 850s in a March cutter and it's trolling.

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42 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Yeah we get the northern stream to lift out and the southern vort is actually a beast.....wagons west. Wonder if we see the southern vort trend stronger in guidance? The trend this season has been to under model the strength of vorts as they approach the east coast; even shredding them at times..

I feel like the trend in quidance this season has been to attenuate east coast waves with time...not saying it happens here. New pattern...

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you determine that?

You want to find a part of a sounding (forecast or observed) that is saturated and has lapse rates steeper than moist adiabatic (6.5 C/km). Hence the absolutely unstable part.

You can get conditional instability aloft if you saturate a layer and it cools as a result, but this is already saturated and unstable.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If the trends so far hold, by 00z we should have some solid hits on some of the other models (other than the NAM) and by 06z we should be back in full swing. Fingers crossed.

This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model.

That is truly hurtful . Singling me out when I haven’t jackpotted other than Dec 5th and hoping everyone snows . Noted 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model.

No worries guys. I’ll probably be joining you on the outside looking in when we get to go time. Me, you guys, and Jimmy. Good company. 

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