Torch Tiger Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You know the storm is coming when the tone of your trolling takes on an air of desperation. Typical double-standards though. In August, posts with D10 frosts on the charts and leathery leaves isn't trolling. 5-10 likes on those at a time. I post a 15C 850s in a March cutter and it's trolling. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It's a nice winter day, longer day means more daylight to enjoy the pack. All good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I think GFS will be a little further west but no big move.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 42 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Yeah we get the northern stream to lift out and the southern vort is actually a beast.....wagons west. Wonder if we see the southern vort trend stronger in guidance? The trend this season has been to under model the strength of vorts as they approach the east coast; even shredding them at times.. I feel like the trend in quidance this season has been to attenuate east coast waves with time...not saying it happens here. New pattern... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Maybe a tic or two, But in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big month AWT. Keep swinging til you hit lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS is gonna be west. Not like NAM but may hit SE areas pretty good this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Keep swinging til you hit lol Not really. Delayed but not denied theory, that’s all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not really. Delayed but not denied theory, that’s all. So my February warm up is delayed, but not denied lol Gotcha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Mini 2015 Though I’m not as amped about this event as Monday’s. Might be good for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Moist Absolute Unstable Layer to be exact for the acronym letters. How do you determine that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you determine that? You want to find a part of a sounding (forecast or observed) that is saturated and has lapse rates steeper than moist adiabatic (6.5 C/km). Hence the absolutely unstable part. You can get conditional instability aloft if you saturate a layer and it cools as a result, but this is already saturated and unstable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Mini 2015 Though I’m not as amped about this event as Monday’s. Might be good for some We get the NAM to verify this wknd, then nail the big VD event that I will be out of town for, then that is essentially a delayed Jan 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We get the NAM to verify this wknd, then nail the big VD event that I will be out of town for, then that is essentially a delayed Jan 2011. La la la lock up VD event while you lock yourself in a casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I’ll take 2-4 at this point. Beggars can’t be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So my February warm up is delayed, but not denied lol Gotcha. I don’t know what you mean. I thought end of Jan to mid Feb would be great but that got pushed back by two weeks. While you melted in Mid Jan, I was getting the bus ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I don’t know what you mean. I thought end of Jan to mid Feb would be great but that got pushed back by two weeks. While you melted in Mid Jan, I was getting the bus ready. I actually had a decent call for January. I melted bc I still hated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t recall the RPM ever being right. It may have been right prior to Nemo is 13, but that’s it Pretty sure it was whacking me with the deform in Dec...at least on 1 of the 100 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I sure wish the best model for this storm here wasn't the RPM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 If the trends so far hold, by 00z we should have some solid hits on some of the other models (other than the NAM) and by 06z we should be back in full swing. Fingers crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So my February warm up is delayed, but not denied lol Gotcha. If weeklies are correct it’s denied. Pattern changed Jan 21st, storms appear 10 days later. Rockin and rollin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 You guys have the RPM frame or two prior to the one posted? I know wrong forum but I have no clue where to find the model. I need more happy hour love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: You guys have the RPM frame or two prior to the one posted? I know wrong forum but I have no clue where to find the model. I need more happy hour love It’s an in house model some companies use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If weeklies are correct it’s denied. Pattern changed Jan 21st, storms appear 10 days later. Rockin and rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If weeklies are correct it’s denied. Pattern changed Jan 21st, storms appear 10 days later. Rockin and rollin I was being sarcastic. I clearly blew the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If the trends so far hold, by 00z we should have some solid hits on some of the other models (other than the NAM) and by 06z we should be back in full swing. Fingers crossed. This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model. 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model. That is truly hurtful . Singling me out when I haven’t jackpotted other than Dec 5th and hoping everyone snows . Noted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is when SNE is going to start to get annoying. Stealing snow from every direction, turning rotating farts from a bald eagle into 2” QPF, and then having to read DIT posts where any model crushing SNE is the correct one. I’m at peace with it this year after my December storm, but this is normally when I’d start to feel my pre-cirrus anxiety. So just be ready for it because it’s coming, and it’s going to be a long month posting with powderfreak cheering on the WRF-NMB when it’s 100 miles north of every other model. No worries guys. I’ll probably be joining you on the outside looking in when we get to go time. Me, you guys, and Jimmy. Good company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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