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Quick Hitter Coastal Threat, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tblizz whining his way to 6-8”? 

The thing to watch is to see if perhaps the shortwave doesn’t decay quite as quick as model guidance shows...and we end up with some huge bands getting into the southeast half of SNE like the NAM showed. I think the odds are definitely against that but it can’t be ruled out. There’s going to be some pretty potent bands that are tantalizingly close and it not impossible they inch a little further NW. 

I haven’t really seen any notable trend on the HRRR other than the 09z run was really paltry, 10z came back to look kind of like most models and 11z didn’t move much from 10z though it looked a little better inland. I’ve been waiting to see if it makes a move....same with RAP. RAP looks a lot better than HRRR but haven’t seen it move much in the last few hours. One of them will be wrong. 

It’s just the same ole story here I think. I’m thinking maybe 2-4 because some of it is wasted to cool. I’d feel good by TAN. We’ll see if any bands make it here.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No solid high 

Takes a small miracle (it seems last few years) for your area to be all snow w decent ratios 

December was great.  It’s been garbage airmasses though last two seasons. Even yesterday was mild with like 522 thicknesses.  Just can’t get good, antecedent airmasses. Meanwhile in October we had some of the best temps  during a storm. :lol:  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

December was great.  It’s been garbage airmasses though last two seasons. Even yesterday was mild with like 522 thicknesses.  Just can’t get good, antecedent airmasses. Meanwhile in October we had some of the best temps  during a storm. :lol:  

Looks like that changes this week at least. Sprawling Scooter high makes a grand entrance. 

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still hoping for 4-6, but I feel like QPF wasted to cool a bit. Maybe down by TAN they'll get it good.

You were telling people yesterday not to fret about the BL temps in the morning today lol where you are.....now you’re the ones fretting about the temps.   Rain for you again...?

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like that changes this week at least. Sprawling Scooter high makes a grand entrance. 

Yeah that had me smiling. We hope for that. We’ll see today. If we can pound it shouldn’t matter, just hope it’s not 20dbz stuff while I’m seeing white curtains to my south by 10 miles. Lol.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You were telling people yesterday not to fret about the BL temps in the morning today lol where you are.....now you’re the ones fretting about the temps.   Rain for you again...?

It’s looking milder for me locally which is partially due to some guidance keeping the best rates offshore. I’m not worrying if I know it pounds, but I don’t know if it pounds. In these cases, I’ll win being conservative 8/10 times.  I think inland is fine. 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sticking with 4 to 8 here. Allowing for more aggressive models and radar trends for high end globls for low end. At any rate snow on snow and thats a good thing. Shaping up to be a helluva week.

I'd go 4-8" where you are too.  Feel like 4" seems like a decent bet on the low end.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s looking milder for me locally which is partially due to some guidance keeping the best rates offshore. I’m not worrying if I know it pounds, but I don’t know if it pounds. In these cases, I’ll win being conservative 8/10 times.  I think inland is fine. 

Ahhh I see.
 

 Weymouth coming back into reality after a decade of every storm jackpotting that area with the most snow every time. 

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sticking with 4 to 8 here. Allowing for more aggressive models and radar trends for  high end and  globals for low end. At any rate snow on snow and thats a good thing. Shaping up to be a helluva week.

Agreed. 5 or 6” here and 7-8” you Starting later and ending later than I thought. Props to Scoots on that 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think this is going to be a tough storm for the just far enough in every direction location of ORH

I don't know man, radar looks really very good...I’m thinking the NAM wins this one.  If so, Euro really taking a huge hit.  That model has been pretty bad lately close in.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I don't know man, radar looks really very good...I’m thinking the NAM wins this one.  If so, Euro really taking a huge hit.  That model has been pretty bad lately close in.

I don’t know... every model basically punts it easy. We’ve seen this movie before... it’s going to struggle to gain latitude.

If we were looking at a positive bust, I’d expect the short range models to be more bullish, which they aren’t.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t know... every model basically punts it easy. We’ve seen this movie before... it’s going to struggle to gain latitude.

If we were looking at a positive bust, I’d expect the short range models to be more bullish, which they aren’t.

I’ve seen these come NW too, but we’ve mentioned that a millions times so we’ll see how it plays. Worcester probably gets 3-4” easily.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s amazing how nice radar looks around Philly.. all streaming into SNE. The fact it’s raining down there indicates things are farther west than globals. They’re under a WSW and it’s 36 and raining 

We ride the line

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9 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

All I can say is that if the long-standing GFS has been so accurate, why are they replacing it?  It is not getting an upgrade as has been done in the past and has been done with the Euro.  It is being replaced.

This isn't necessarily true. The FV3 portion of the new GFS is basically back end production. It makes it easier to upgrade the model in the future, and allows easier access to researchers who want to tinker with model core changes.

The v16 is actually changing model physics of the GFS. So not an outright replacement, but improvements. Like coupling ocean and atmosphere to better produce wave guidance.

Now the NAM, that is getting replaced.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s amazing how nice radar looks around Philly.. all streaming into SNE. The fact it’s raining down there indicates things are farther west than globals. They’re under a WSW and it’s 36 and raining 

I mean the 00z NAM nest had rain in the Philly area before the heavier stuff got in. So I don't think that really indicates any bust trend.

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